Dairy Industry news and features

This page was last updated at 4^th April 2018 (Press your refresh/reload button for the latest information)

For information on our latest range of livestock tags, please go to our home page …. http://www.ipaquotas.com/

http://www.forfarmers.co.uk/sectors/ruminant/dairy/youngstock_range_.aspx

Our Weekly News Bulletin is available by email. To receive it please email info@ipaquotas.co.uk

Note, all standard litre prices are those quoted by www.milkprices.com and are based on the following:

The liquid standard litre 4% bf, 3.3% protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million litres a year on EODC but before seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing, B price additions, capital retentions or annual incentive schemes.

The manufacturing standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of 4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.

0.5ppl milk price reduction for Muller Direct suppliers – from 1^st May (3^rd April 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 26.0ppl, however, with the re-introduction of the retail supplement the figure increases to 26.2ppl.

In addition, Muller have confirmed Muller Direct suppliers’ April deliveries are expected to receive a retail supplement of circa 0.15ppl.

0.84ppl to 1.15ppl milk price reductions and a 26ppl liquid milk price for First Milk members – from 1^st April (3^rd April 2018)

This is an across the board harmonisation of the matrix of regional First Milk member milk prices, which results in a standard liquid litre milk price of 26ppl. This will be under the heading of First Milk liquid in addition to which will sit a First Milk manufacturing milk price 26.88ppl. Going forward First Milk will only have the two contracts and two milk prices.

1.5ppl milk price reduction for Graham Dairies suppliers – from 1^st April (3^rd April 2018)

This takes producer’s standard liquid litre milk price to 26.75ppl

1.25ppl milk price reduction for Wensleydale Creamery (Hawes) – from 1^st April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (3^rd April 2018)

This takes producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 27.7ppl and based on a standard liquid litre to 26.75ppl.

1.1ppl milk price reduction for Freshways suppliers – from 1^st April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (3^rd April 2018)

This takes producers standard liquid litre milk price to 26.28ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Dairy Crest and DCD in deadlock as a 1ppl price cut is imposed – from 1^st May (3^rd April 2018)

Dairy Crest have imposed their first price reduction of 1ppl for May having failed to reach agreement with DCD for the first time since the formation of the DPO.

This 1ppl reduction takes producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 28ppl and based on a standard liquid litre to 26.92ppl, which it has to be said is a healthy May price.

Deadlock means that any DCD Davidstow farmers can leave only serving 3 months termination notice as opposed to the contracted 12 months. Any who do leave will automatically forgo their 1ppl loyalty bonus for the three months. The resignation opportunity is open for 30 days.

Whilst on the face of it it sounds like a big call the alternative milk purchasers are unlikely to see orderly queues of DCD farmers wanting to sign up given their current prices.

GDT down 0.6% for the fourth consecutive auction (3^rd April 2018)

Today’s GDT auction saw the average all products price fall for the fourth consecutive auction by 0.6% to average US$3477 tonne.

Notable price movements were:

SMP down 1.8% to average US$1849 tonne

WMP up 1.6% to average US$3278 tonne

Cheddar up 2.2% to average US$3679 tonne

Butter up 4.1% to average US$5494 tonne

Muller clocks in 7^th position as The Grocer’s 2018 Britain’s Biggest Brands (3^rd April 2018)

Muller will no doubt by delighted to be the only dairy brand to make The Grocer’s Top 10, having retained its 7^th position for a second year. Other dairy brands were Lurpak 19^th (19^th in 2017) Arla 22^nd (26^th in 2017) and Yeo Valley 53^rd (50^th in 2017)

Wyke Farms opens its recruitment book (3^rd April 2018)
Wyke Farms, Somerset, has opened its recruitment door seeking at least 25million litres of extra milk. The milk is required due to increased exports with Wyke after new producers ideally within a 50mile radius of the dairy in Bruton over an area which extends into Gloucestershire, Somerset, Wiltshire, Devon & Dorset

FarmFoods selling 8 pints of milk for only £1.50 (3^rd April 2018)

The information received indicates the discounted milk was supplied by Paynes Dairies.

3ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Lactalis – from 1^st April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (23^rd March 2018)

It sounds like the mother of all price drops and it is but to balance this drop is the fact that Lactalis have held their producer price since November at 29.91ppl.

Similarly this latest price is guaranteed by Lactalis for a minimum for three months until July 1^st.

The resulting manufacturing standard litre price is 26.91ppl and based on a liquid standard litre will be 26ppl.

1.75ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1^st April (23^rd March 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 26ppl and based on the manufacturing standard litre it calculates to 26.37ppl (Chester based) and 26.25ppl (Cumbria) (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Wyke Farms (Cheese) – from 1^st April (23^rd March 2018)

The resulting manufacturing standard litre price is 28.62ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 27.65ppl.

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1^st April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (23^rd March 2018)

This should result in a standard liquid litre price of 26.2ppl

Arla April milk price is stand on with an extra 0.32ppl currency increase (23^rd March 2018)

Arla will not reduce its conventional milk price for April and the likelihood and expectation is that the next time Arla members milk price moves it will be upwards.

In addition, the April to June currency smoothing mechanism results in a 0.32ppl increase, which results in a 1^st April standard liquid litre price of 26.39ppl and a manufacturing standard litre price of 27.43ppl.

Meanwhile, the Arla member organic standard liquid litre price for April will be 41.28ppl and on a manufacturing litre 42.92ppl. However, for Arla’s Danish and Swedish producers they have a 1 Euro Cent a litre price reduction.

Last month’s Arla member price drop of 2.16ppl was a big bombshell, however, one month ago in this bulletin Ian stated that whilst the whopping cut was unwelcome if it was a case of cut once and cut deep it should be considered a reasonable result by farmers involved and that price drops under 26p looked less likely now.

Whether farmers like it or not as things look today most, if not all, GB milk purchasers will be under pressure to follow Arla’s lead. That means fewer, if any, further price cuts are likely and possibly none for May 1^st unless suppliers want to play Russian Roulette with their supply base. To have a stand on liquid price of 26.4ppl plus through the spring flush, whenever spring arrives, is good news.

Correction Reference Wensleydale milk price cut (23^rd March 2018)

In our last bulletin we stated that the producer notified 1ppl milk price cut for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery took effect from 1^st April. Two producers have confirmed that the cut was actually announced with immediate effect from 1^st March

GDT index fall for the third consecutive auction (23^rd March 2018)

This week’s GDT auction saw the average price fall 1.2% to average US$3632 tonne. Note, the quantity on offer was down 3.4% to 18,635 tonnes.

Key price movements were:

SMP down 8.6% to average US$1887 tonne

Cheddar down 3.9% to average US$3609 tonne

Butter no change average US$5281 tonne

WMP up 0.1% to average US$ 3226 tonne

Muller Milk Group Board (MMG) appointments (23^rd March 2018)

Democracy has certainly played its part in the recent elections which have seen four out of six candidates elected to join three others making a total of 7 who represent 1700 Muller suppliers along with the 20 members of Muller’s Farmer Forum.

David Halhead and Ian Speed were the two unsuccessful candidates who now step down from their existing board positions and the successful four were David Herdman, Philip Rowney, Ray Gibbins and Richard Pearman.

Around 19 million litres of GB milk were dumped (23^rd March 2018)

AHDB Dairy estimate the recent snow resulted in around 19 million litres of milk failing to be collected in GB between 28^th February and 3^rd March

Muller & Grahams Dairy Scotland scoop 3 year Lidl deal (22^nd March 2018)

Grahams The Family Dairy and Muller will start a 3 year partnership for the supply of liquid milk and butter to Lidl  from June 1^st this year.

From June 1^st Muller’s total share of Lidl’s business increases by what Ian estimates to be around 70/80 million litres. Meanwhile Grahams retain their sales as Lidl’s main milk and cream supplier in Scotland whilst Trewithen Dairy, Cornwall also retains its current regional contract. 

Ian estimates Lidl’s total milk requirements are around 240 million litres based on 12 RDC outlets averaging 20 million litres each and Muller’s June 1^st  share will be around 200million litres or more based on its contract to serve 10 x RDC’s.

The Muller increases come at the expense of Medina who have lost an estimated 40 million litres to  two RDC’s and Arla who lose an estimated 30 million litres to  two RDC’s.  Neither Medina or Arla will be supplying Lidl with any milk from June 1st

The switch in literage is certainly newsworthy, however, as always the real commercials are undisclosed.  Certainly, the innovative 3 year partnership and the offer of fixed price ex-farm gate milk prices from the Muller/Lidl partnership will be of particular interest to Muller farmers and the industry.

Under the deal Muller direct farmers will be able to lock in to a fixed price of 28ppl for a portion of their milk.  The locking in time frame is yet to be confirmed but the expectation is it will be a minimum 1 year and could even be a 3 year hedge deal for farmers, which is a new direction and massive step forward for a major retailer as both Lidl and Muller try to offer farmers real options and solutions to minimise the effects of volatility.  Further details are expected shortly.

1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1^st April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (9^th March 2018)

1.5ppl milk price reduction for liquid contracted suppliers to Yew Tree Dairy – from 1^st April (9^th March 2018)

This reduction takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 26.5ppl

1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton from – from 1^st April (9^th March 2018)

This reduction takes producers’ standard litre liquid litre milk price to 26.5ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre price to 27.25ppl.

1.25ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Pensworth Dairy – from 1^st April (9^th March 2018)

This reduction takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 26ppl

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – from 1^st March (9^th March 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 28ppl and based on a standard manufacturing litre to a healthy 28.95ppl.

GDT average falls for the second consecutive auction (9^th March 2018)

This week’s GDT auction saw the average price ease to $3593 down 0.6% and the second consecutive fall in 2018. In addition, the average price for the key product WMP declined by 0.8% the first WMP price fall in 2018.

Notable results:

Butter down 1% to average US$5280 tonne

WMP down 0.8% to average US$3232 tonne

Cheddar up 1.7% to average US$3759 tonne

SMP up 5.5% to average US$2051 tonne

Dairy farmers’ contracts terminated with only 3 months notice (9^th March 2018)

Around 24 farmers who sell their milk to Dean Foods in Pennsylvania US have been given only 90 days (3 months) to find a new milk purchaser.

It’s not the first time a US milk purchaser has made a similar move because in 2017 Grassland Dairy gave producers only 30 days to find a new home.

The move is blamed on a surplus of milk combined with the fact consumers are buying less liquid milk. Coincidently in the same region as Dean Foods contract terminations have been issued Walmart have built their liquid milk processing plant which is expected to be fully operational by the end of May. Prior to this Dean Foods bottled Walmart’s Great Value own label milk hence the reason why most people have joined the dots up themselves!

The expectation is that Dean Foods and others will terminate more farmer contracts at short notice as the spring flush results in milk flooding onto the market.

On a global scale whilst production in New Zealand is down, due to weather, production in the EU and US are both up.

1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Muller Direct contracted producers – from 1^st April (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 26.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers on Arla Direct contracts – from 1^st April (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 24.3ppl and for a manufacturing standard litre 25.32ppl, which means it is on course to be the lowest April GB farm gate milk price.

1.5ppl milk price reduction for Glanbia Cheese suppliers – from 1^st April (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 26.1ppl

1.32ppl milk price reduction for Freshways suppliers with more to come – from 1^st March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 27.37, including the 0.6ppl volume bonus for those supplying 1 million litres plus (www.milkprices.com). In addition, Freshways have informed its supplying famers that they anticipate a further price reduction in April.

1.3ppl milk price reduction for Paynes Dairies suppliers – from 1^st March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 27.2ppl (www.milkprices.com).

1.25ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Crediton Dairy – from 1^st April (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.25ppl milk price reduction for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers – from 1^st April (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 27.92ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to 29ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for Barbers Cheesemakers suppliers – from 1^st April (2^nd March 2018)

This reduction takes producers standard liquid litre price to 27.842ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to 28.87ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Friesland Campina March farm gate milk price is 30.4ppl (2^nd March 2018)

The small 0.25 Euro Cents kg milk price reduction from 1^st March for suppliers to the European giant Friesland Campina converts to 30.361ppl based on a liquid standard litre according to www.milkprices.com It’s certainly a price UK farmers will envy.

The Friesland organic standard liquid litre milk price converts to 43.19ppl for March as a result of a 1^st March increase of 1.5 Euro Cents kg.

Glimmers of light slowly emerging (2^nd March 2018)

In last week’s bulletin under the heading of “The Outlook” we suggested that there is a real possibility that the bombshell 2.16ppl March price drop for Arla members could be close to the last and that this could be close to if note already at the bottom.

AHDB Dairy have today posted a news item headed “Market Indicators suggest end to price cuts” in which they state farm gate milk prices are heading towards settling and could even move up post the Spring flush.

It’s another positive sign all we need now is for Spring to appear and these positive signs and predictions to convert to reality.

Intervention SMP is released at rock bottom price (2^nd March 2018)

The Commission have sold 4,337 tonnes of the 380.000 tonnes in stock for only €1,100 tonne (£976.00 tonne). This is easily the lowest price they have sold at and its €145/tonne below feed grade SMP. The market certainly doesn’t need much of this cheap low grade SMP releasing at this moment in time.

Arla to pay for milk they are unable to collect (2^nd March 2018)

Arla has announced that in the current extreme weather conditions they will pay members for milk they are unable to collect, which farmers are forced to dispose of. The change takes effect from 26^th February and runs until the weather is declared as improved. Note, it is the members duty to clear their farm drive/entrance as a prior qualification to this offering.

Surprisingly and indeed shamefully Arla report that a small number of farmers on Thursday decided to threaten and abuse Arla staff, including tanker drivers, which Arla have made very clear is unacceptable. It’s a wonder such threats are not grounds for terminating membership of Arla. At the end of the day everyone is trying to do their best in these arctic conditions.

Meadow Foods is in acquisition mode (2^nd March 2018)

Meadow Foods who handle over 650 million litres of milk annually have acquired Roil Foods Limited of Wrexham, who manufacture a range of dairy based oils, which are new products to the Meadow dairy ingredients portfolio. Clearly the new Meadow appear to be in acquisition mode.

Government’s Consultation on “The Future for Food, Farming and the Environment” is now live (2^nd March 2018)

For further details log onto ‘Health and Harmony: the future for food, farming and the environment in a Green Brexit’. . This is the key document on the future thoughts as to the direct and shape of the post Brexit. Responses need to be received by 8^th May.

Tomas Pietrangeli, Managing Director of Arla Foods UK, commented:

“Today’s announcement provides welcome clarity for our farmer owners as to how the Government sees the future of agriculture in this country. We are pleased to see that the Environment Secretary intends to involve the industry in the process through consultation.

“Arla is already in consultation with its farmer owners over how today’s announcement will affect them. We look forward to continuing to engage with Government and policymakers as we work towards the future of agriculture in the UK.”

Whilst a 64 page Government document isn’t a top read in the normal course of circumstances its perhaps the one we all should study.

2.16ppl milk price drop for Arla members is a blow (23^rd February 2018)

Whilst most people who study and understand the dairy markets expected a 1.5 to 2 Euro Cents Arla member price drop for March no one anticipated a whopping 2.5 Euro Cents, which converts to an eye watering 2.16ppl manufacturing member price drop. Note, Arla’s organic milk price remains unchanged.

This reduction results in a liquid standard litre price of only 26.08ppl and a manufacturing standard litre price of 27.11ppl.

This means in the space of three months Arla’s member price has gone from being one of the best (liquid 31.05ppl and manufacturing 32.3ppl) to the worst in the UK, subject to any further announcements from other companies.

This drop has not gone down well with members and two emails received today by Ian are even questioning whether such a brutal cut would have happened on Jonathan Ovens’ watch, compared to Johnnie Russell’s being in situ. While it can’t be proven it’s a fact Ovens would have certainly fought hard against such a brutal cut. It’s up to Arla members to decide whether Russell fought hard against it. Or even at all.

It certainly didn’t stop Russell leaving yesterday’s board meeting to go on holiday to Spain and his G&T and sun lounger, and whilst he is quoted in the official Arla press release he has made himself uncontactable and unaccountable to the members he represents, and who are demanding answers to what is one of Arla’s biggest ever price cuts.

1.25ppl milk price reduction for First Milk producers – from 1^st March (23^rd February 2018)

This reduction results in the following standard litre prices:

Liquid Manufacturing

Lake District                                     27.19ppl           28.2ppl

Midlands & East Wales                   27.15ppl

Scotland                                            26.84ppl

Haverfordwest                                  27.31ppl   28.32ppl

(excluding the Tesco Cheese bonus)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Grahams Dairies (Scotland) – from 1^st March (23^rd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 28.25ppl

GDT auction is a mixed bag (23^rd February 2018)

Recent gains in the fortnightly GDT auction were brought to a grinding stop this week as the average index fell 0.5% to US$3623 tonne.

Notable prices were:

Butter up 1.1% to average US$5334 tonne

WMP up 0.3% to average US$3246 tonne

Cheddar down 1.3% to average US$3686 tonne

SMP down 3.0% to average US$1832 tonne

The outlook (23^rd February 2018)

Firstly, let’s not forget Arla’s milk price is a European milk price and is impacted by several different dynamics to the UK price. This means others do not have to follow Arla’s move just because they can in a downward spiral race to the bottom.

Whilst the NFU’s Chief Dairy Advisor and others have had several pops at two industry commentators forecasts (namely, Walkland and yours truly) over our price predictions going back to November, they are now looking remarkably accurate. At this week’s Dairy Breakout session the clear suggestion from the NFU was that prices WILL be rising. We don’t agree.

If Arla’s latest drop to 26ppl for liquid is a low point and prices recover post the flush then Ian calls that a result. It could be a case of one deep cut, and if they are unlucky a little bit more still to come, but for sure a 25ppl or less milk price looks less likely now than it did.

European production and Mother Nature will have a part to play but Ian still believes the likely Arla member milk price low point will be between 25p and the current 26ppl.

Spot prices have firmed in the last 2 weeks by around 2ppl due to a surprise surge in cream prices and for liquid prices are around 25 to 26ppl, but little is trading and the market is very finely balanced. Whether this cream price surge is sustainable is questionable given the fundamentals.

Meanwhile, Arla have announced their 2017 results this week.

Sales increased 8.37% to £1.94 billion (from £1.79 billion) and net profit was within the co-op’s target of 2.8% of revenue.

Gross profit fell 5% to €2.28 billion with profit before tax down 19% to €321 million compared to €398 million in 2016.

There’s lots of emphasis by Arla on the strength and importance of Arla’s brands which “delivered the greatest revenue growth” but with today’s major member price cut understandably several members are questioning whether their member investment in these brands is producing a return to them. Also note at the NFU Conference Arla’s UK MD, Thomas Pietrangeli stated “I am measured on paying the highest possible milk price to the owners.” Need we say anymore.

NFU AGM & Conference (23^rd February 2018)

Congratulations to Minette Batters who is the first female President of the NFU and she certainly takes to the reins at a very challenging and important time for UK agriculture. Along with her new Vice President, Stuart Roberts and re-elected Guy Smith as Deputy President, they will certainly be kept very busy and have to hit the ground running.

This year’s NFU Conference saw a record attendance of 1560 delegates and whilst it was a bit of a gamble at the time, credit for the move to the ICC goes to the then NFU Vice President, Gwyn Jones. The move has been a huge success.

In terms of the papers whilst the Secretary of Stated for EFRA, The Rt Hon. Michael Gove gave a very good stage performance but his paper told delegates nothing they couldn’t have heard from him 12 months earlier. In summary, he should have done better. More on this another day and on the interesting elements of the Dairy Breakout.

1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Wyke Farming (cheese) from 1^st March (16^th February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.66ppl and based on a standard liquid litre to 28.65ppl.

RABDF submits an inquiry to the EFRA committee (16^th February 2018)

Following its research into the labour situation on more than 1000 British dairy farms, carried out by yours truly Ian Potter Marketing Services, the RABDF has made a submission to the EFRA Committee (Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee).

From the survey 17% of dairy units have foreign workers as part of their workforce and the evidence points to a “potential cliff edge labour shortage facing dairy farms” in the post Brexit world. The survey was carried out in conjunction with Kite Consulting who’s founder, John Allen, commented that the supply of skilled dedicated foreign workers is critical to the success and long term prosperity to the British dairy sector.

1.25ppl milk price reduction for supplies to Meadow Foods – from 1^st March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (9^th February 2018)

The decrease takes producers’ standard liquid litre price down to 27.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)

In addition, Meadow Foods B milk price paid for December deliveries was 23ppl.

1.25ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – from 1^st February (9^th February 2018)

1.25ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Crediton Dairy – from 1^st March (9^th February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)

GDT average bounces up 5.9% in two weeks (9^th February 2018)

This week’s GDT auction produced the third consecutive rise this year and the largest increase since November 2016 to average US$3553 tonne, an increase of 5.9%.

WMP was up 7.6%, it’s highest average for 8 months, with SMP up 7.2%, however, note due to the drought in New Zealand volumes on offer were once again down, this time by 5% when 22,197 tonnes were sold.

New Zealand analysts are warning that this recover might continue for the next auction on 20^th February but it’s likely to correct itself in March and will be lucky if recent gains can be sustained. New Zealand milk production is estimated to be down 1.5% in this dairy year.

Notable movers:

Butter +7.9% to average US$5277 tonne

WMP +7.6% to average US$3226 tonne

SMP +7.2% to average US$1932 tonne

Cheddar +7.2% to average US$3739 tonne

Arthur Fearnall to replace Jonathan Ovens on Arla Amba Board (9^th February 2018)

At yesterday’s Arla UK area forum the regional representatives elected Cheshire dairy farmer, Arthur Fearnall to join Johnnie Russel on the Arla Foods Amba Board to representing 2,500 GB Arla farmers.

Several reports indicate the meeting had its moments and body language was instantly interpreted to mean the result didn’t suit a couple of those who knew it before it was announced to the representatives but hey ho that’s democracy.

Fearnall certainly understands the business, is professional and savvy and can hit the ground running from today and won’t need to serve as an apprentice to anyone.

Based on the presentations given by the six candidates the general feeling was that one of the unsuccessful candidates should certainly be back for a second shot at the position possibly as early as next May when both Johnnie Russel and Arthur Fearnall are up for re-election.

It’s time for the top table jostling and unprofessional farmer politics to stop. Any legal action following the unfortunate handling of Ovens’ instant dismissal will simply take its course.

Fearnall has to hit the ground running and have the co-operation and support of ALL involved following yesterday’s election.

Arla acquire the business of Yeo Valley Dairies Limited (9^th February 2018)

The Mead family have agreed to sell its subsidiary Yeo Valley Dairies Limited, which will give Arla the branding license rights to utilise the Yeo Valley milk brand in liquid, cheese, butter and spreads. Note, the Yeo Valley yoghurt, cream, ice cream and desserts business remain with the Mead family and the deal does not include any processing facilities, employees or dairy farmer suppliers. OMSCo currently supply Yeo Valley with its liquid milk and this will continue for a minimum of 3 years.

It’s another clear signal that Arla (along with Muller) are investing long term in the UK dairy industry, which is positive.

The deal is subject to UK Competition Authority approval.

2ppl chart topping milk price reduction for suppliers to Pattemores – from 1^st March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.25ppl milk price reduction for Barbers Cheesemakers suppliers – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.91ppl and their standard liquid litre to 28.84ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.2ppl milk price reduction for Arla Directs – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 25.8ppl and their manufacturing litre price to 26.89ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for Muller Direct suppliers – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Pensworth Dairy – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.25ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm Cheesemakers – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 28.75ppl and their standard liquid litre to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Glanbia Cheese suppliers – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 28.5ppl and their standard liquid litre to 27.55ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1^st March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2^nd February 2018)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Yew Tree Dairies liquid contract – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.769ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Freshways – from 1^st February (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.69 (www.milkprices.com)

0.75ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries Limited – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

However, this modest decline, compared to the others above, comes with some welcome news that SCC will hold this price until at least May 1^st. This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.03ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

0.75ppl milk price reduction for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers – from 1^st March (2^nd February 2018)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 30.25ppl and their standard liquid litre to 29.17ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1^st February (2^nd February 2018)

Information required by Ian from readers of this bulletin on the following milk buyer’s price moves:

Lanchester

County

Buckleys

Average 2017 UK farm gate milk price was 28.75ppl (2^nd February 2018)

This is according to DEFRA calculations. The December average was 31.66ppl

Arla to invest in £460million of which £72million will come to the UK (2^nd February 2018)

Arla has announced a whopping £460 million European investment plan of which £72 million will be invested in the UK. Of this £72 million £34 million will be spent at its Aylesbury plant which will predominantly go into facilities for the production of lactose free dairy products. Ten out of twelve UK Arla processing facilities will receive a share of the investment money.

This is positive news from the Dairy giant demonstrating the long-term confidence Arla has to growing the UK Dairy Industry. A similar investment signal previously came from Muller last year so clearly both of our two largest processors have confidence. For Arla it’s the biggest annual investment in the UK excepting the commitment to build Aylesbury.

Ovens has no case to answer according to HMRC and starts legal proceedings (2^nd February 2018)

It is believed that HMRC have confirmed that Jonathan Ovens and the Arla EDL board have no case to answer re corporate hospitality expenses. This was one of the reasons put forward by Russell as to why Ovens had to be sacked. 

Ian has attempted to determine the exact date Russell was made aware that HMRC had made their decision, but without success. This will no doubt be a matter for discussion for the Arla farmer reps at their big meeting next Thursday (see later).

As was widely predicted at the time of his dismissal Ovens' dairy business D Mortimer & Sons are also known to have issued formal notices prior to the commencement of legal action against several companies and directors for loss of directorships, his tarnished reputation and loss of his Arla membership. It’s all lining up to be a very, very expensive mess, which will most likely cost £multi-millions in lawyers, court fees or most likely out of court settlements, and damages if Arla and the other implicated businesses and directors lose the cases. 

It is understood, and it’s no surprise, one of the legal notices has gone to the UKAF board, six of whom voted to expel Ovens, and with hindsight it’s likely some of those six are wishing they hadn't followed Russell like unquestioning disciples and had thought for themselves and waited until HMRC had declared their position.  It remains to be seen whether these six, including Russell and three of the candidates who have thrown their hats in the ring to replace Ovens (see below), have received individual notices of legal action for damages, but this must be a possibility.

It’s a bizarre but a very predictable set of circumstances, and the biggest worry for Arla and Arla members will be that litigation along these lines will take up a huge amount of Russell's and his five accomplices time to defend, and that’s time that should be put to better use working for members.

Six runners and riders to replace Jonathan Ovens as an Arla Board Member (2^nd February 2018)

Ovens’ boots are big ones to fill and personal preferences and allegiances need to be put to one side by those Arla reps who vote to ensure the elected candidate understands the business in detail, is professional, savvy and can get results for UK farmers.  He or she will have to hit the ground running, especially on issues like Brexit.

Six candidates have thrown their names into the hat for next Thursday’s elections to take the BOR position previously held by Ovens, at which up to 106 Arla Chairman and Vice Chairman will vote. The candidates are

Arthur Fearnall

James Thompson

Gaynor Wellwood

David Hyslop

Angela Rhodes

Tim Dale

Dairy Tech Event is next week (2^nd February 2018)

Next Wednesday, 7th February, will see a new event organised by RABDF, Dairy Tech. It will be an important day in the dairy calendar, with the exhibition booking over 250 stands. This has blown away all RABDF’s predictions. The event will be one for progressive dairy farmers who recognise that technology and science will be at the centre of dairy farming progress and future growth, including disease and illness diagnostics and treatment as well as helping reduce dairy farming’s environmental footprint. I wish the event well and hope it gets a good turnout of visitors.

Bill Gates Funds Super Cow Research (2^nd February 2018)

Microsoft tycoon Bill Gates has invested £29m in British research to breed a hybrid milk cow-productive but rugged-for Africa. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have provided the money for Edinburgh-based GALVmed (Global Alliance for Livestock Veterinary Medicines), which is researching genetics and vaccines to breed a cow with milk yield comparable to that in Europe but with the high heat tolerance of indigenous cattle in Africa. Livestock were critical for helping to alleviate hunger and fight poverty in the developing world, Gates said. The Department for International Development is also funding the project. (Source: Dairy Industry Newsletter DIN)

1.73ppl (2 Euro Cents kg) milk price reduction for Arla members – from 1^st February (26^th January 2018)

This latest reduction for conventional milk only results in a 1^st February standard liquid litre milk price of 28.16ppl and a standard manufacturing litre milk price of 29.27ppl.

Arla’s organic milk price is stand on at standard litre prices of 40.96ppl (liquid) and 42.59ppl (manufacturing). Note, whilst Arla’s organic milk price is unchanged in the UK it reduces by 1 Euro Cent per kg in both Denmark and Sweden.

Next week’s bulletin will not make for happy reading because if Arla sneeze the majority end up with a cold. Mystic Chris Walkland’s farm gate milk price predictions, made in July, for January and February 2018 have both proved scarily close to reality.

1.75ppl milk price reduction for Pensworth Dairy suppliers – from 1^st February (19^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.25ppl

1.11ppl milk price reduction for Freshways suppliers – back dated to 1^st January (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (19^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.46ppl

1ppl milk price reduction for First Milk members – from 1^st February (19^th January 2018)

This reduction results in the following standard litre prices:

Liquid Manufacturing

Lake District 28.44ppl 29.45ppl

Midlands & East Wales 28.40ppl

Scotland 28.09ppl

Haverfordwest 28.56ppl 29.57ppl

(excluding the Tesco Cheese bonus)

0.52ppl milk price reduction fro Co-op Dairy suppliers – from 1^st February (19^th January 2018)

This milk is supplied by Muller and takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.87ppl

0.07ppl increase for Tesco suppliers – from 1^st February (19^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.52ppl (Muller Milk Group) and 29.27ppl (Arla). The price change is based on the cost tracker number crunching.

GDT up 4.9% (19^th January 2018)

Tuesday’s GDT auction saw prices bounce up on average 4.9% clearly as a result of lower volumes put forward by Fonterra due to continuing drought conditions in New Zealand. Total sold 23,319 tonnes down from 25,400 tonnes sold a fortnight ago.

Notable movers were:

Butter + 8.8% to average US$4897 tonne

SMP + 6.5% to average US$1818 tonne

Cheddar + 5.2% to average US$3486 tonne

WMP + 5.1% to average US$3010 tonne

Goat farmers under notice as milk supply eclipses demand (19^th January 2018)

Both Arla and Abergavenny Fine Foods have given notice to their goat farmers that they no longer require their milk.  Sadly the chances of the affected farmers finding an alternative milk purchaser look grim.

Arla have given 12 months notice to 9 farmers and once they all leave Arla will no longer be involved in the collection and marketing of goat’s milk in the UK.  If one or more of the Arla farmers does find an alternative outlet they are free to leave as soon as is convenient to them. In addition Arla have committed to hold producers price at the current level throughout the duration of the 12 month notice.

Meanwhile, this week Abergavenny Fine Foods gave its goat’s milk suppliers a brutal and cruel 6 weeks contract termination notice.  Ian emailed attempting to contact them to find out how many farmers had received notice but the request was unanswered as were other questions and one can only assume the farmers involved have had a rougher ride compared to the ones with Arla.

The news will be a huge blow to the farmers involved but the harsh reality is that demand has fallen and supply rocketed and the cost of dealing with the significant volume of unwanted goat’s milk is totally unsustainable and that’s the reason both have pulled the plug.

The book is open for what is the most important democratically elected job in the British dairy industry (19^th January 2018)

On the 8^th February up to 106 Arla district chairmen and vice chairmen representing 53 districts will be called to a meeting to vote in a new Arla AMBA board member to replace the ousted Jonathan Ovens.

This is without doubt one of the most important elected position in British dairying with the successful person effectively representing 25% of Arla’s total milk intake.

Whilst in theory any Arla member is encouraged to apply having been nominated to stand by one of the 106 elected representatives the successful candidate must surely come with some very special qualities and real calibre which should narrow down the runners and riders to only 2 or 3 with true ability, perhaps with the odd wild card.

One key tick box needs to be that the elected person has a detailed understanding of the intricacies of   how our rather unique relationships with retailers have evolved and be able to foster them.  Arla’s Commercial Team have chalked up a number of successes in recent months and they will be desperate to see a face emerge who can help them win business.  The last thing Arla need is for someone to be elected whose ambition eclipses their ability.  It’s not the time for confidence to triumph over ability and it’s not a trainee position with Russel playing coach and carer to a side kick

Then there is the need to bring 2,500 Arla UK members together and show real leadership in the next phase of Arla’s development not to mention the little matter of leadership through Brexit.

It’s going to need to be a strong person with experience in governance and calibre.  It’s a big job at a very important time both for Arla and the UK dairy industry.  The nominations book closes on 31^st January.  Time to think carefully and fingers crossed the right people step forward.

Interestingly, last spring when both Ovens and Russel were both up for re-election no one opposed them, so no election, which says something.

Muller launch a next generation initiative for young farmers (19^th January 2018)

Muller’s latest initiative is the launch of Muller Direct Next Generation where they aim to involve around 25 Muller Direct young farmers who have real dairy farming business potential.

The initiative is fully funded by Muller and will run for an initial 3 year period to provide participants with a range of tools and training to help them catapult their businesses forward in a post Brexit world.

It’s certainly another ambitious project by the dairy giant and joins others including its futures contract trading option.

Mike Gallacher returns to the UK dairy industry (19^th January 2018)

First Milk’s superhero turnaround guru and former CEO Mike Gallacher has made a part time return to the UK dairy as a Non-Executive Director of National Milk Records

1.25ppl milk price reduction for members of the co-op, South Caernarfon Creameries – from February 1^st (8^th January 2018)

This take producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.78ppl and the standard liquid litre price to 28.81ppl

1ppl milk price reduction for Arla directs – from 1^st February (8^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27ppl

1ppl milk price reduction for Dairy Crest (Davidstow) suppliers – from 1^st February (8^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 31ppl and 29.92ppl based on a standard liquid litre.

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from February 1^st (8^th January 2018)

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheesemakers) – from 1^st February (8^th January 2018)

This reduces producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.75ppl and the standard liquid litre price to 29ppl.

1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers Yew Tree Dairy – from 1^st February (8^th January 2018)

This takes producers standard litre price to 29ppl.

0.75ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from February 1^st (8^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29ppl.

0.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Grahams Dairy Scotland – from January 1^st (8^th January 2018)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.25ppl

Crediton Dairy to hold its farm gate milk price at 31ppl until at least March 1^st (8^th January 2018)

The 31ppl is based on a liquid standard litre and this is likely to remain a chart topping farm gate milk price for at least the first two months of 2018. The 31ppl price has been paid for four consecutive months (November to February inclusive).

Barbers Farmhouse Cheesemakers to hold its farm gate milk price until at least March 1^st (8^th January 2018)

This means for four consecutive months (November to February inclusive) Barbers manufacturing standard litre price has been a healthy 31.193ppl and its liquid standard litre 30.074ppl.

Shock 332 million litres extra production previously unreported (8^th January 2018)

DEFRA are clearly still encountering problems reporting UK milk statistics and the latest bombshell came yesterday (4^th January) with a shock upward revision of production for the calendar year 2017.

The January to October UK production has been increased by a whopping 332million litre, equivalent to almost an additional 1.1 million litres everyday. A DEFRA spokesperson has commented to Ian that this revision is “due to new information becoming available for some companies in England and Wales”.

Novembers production totalled 1163.5 million litres identical to the amount produced in November 2015 and up 84.6 million litres (+7.8%) on November 2016 production.

AHDB Dairy have highlighted concerns over the figures on several occasions and still believe the DEFRA production data for the period May to December 2016 is around 20 million litres lower than AHDB expect. Consequently AHDB have stated “we would advise caution when looking at year on year changes”.

Arla take 100 million litres off Muller in battle to supply Aldi (8^th January 2018)

The outcome of the recent Aldi liquid tender is that Arla have won an additional two regions in England and Wales currently supplied by Muller which amount to around 100 million litres. From October Muller will supply Aldi in two regions with around 60 million litres annually, which will be less than 20% of the combined Arla/Muller literage. Ian calculates Arla will then be Aldi’s dominant supplier having easily in excess of 80% of Aldi’s liquid and cream business, especially given Aldi’s speed of growth. The deal is understood to be a 5-year contract.

Note, So far as Scottish Aldi stores are concerned it’s no change as Grahams Dairy retain their supply agreement and similarly Trewithen Dairy in Cornwall will retain their Aldi liquid business to their Southwest stores.

Muller will continue to supply Aldi with a range of non-liquid dairy products.

Last month Kantar confirmed that Aldi had regained its crown as Britain’s fastest growing supermarket with sales up 15% year on year with Aldi, now Britain’s 5^th largest supermarket.

Muller has taken one or two knocks too many from Arla, including the loss of volume from Sainsbury’s, Morrison’s and now Aldi and can’t afford to loose anymore literage and the gloves are sure to come off more than ever.

GDT’s first milk auction of 2018 was up 2.2% (8^th January 2018)

The average auction price this week was up 2.2%.

Key movers were:

WMP up 4.2% to average US$2886 tonne

SMP up 1.6% to average US$1699 tonne

Cheddar down 2.1% to average US$3317 tonne

Meanwhile, Fonterra has revised its forecast New Zealand milk output down by 4% due to seriously dry conditions, which has hit milk output. Fonterra has already reduced the volume of WMP offered for auction on the fortnightly GDT auction as a consequence of lower milk supplies.

New Strategy Director at AHDB Dairy (8^th January 2018)

Former Communication Director at First Milk, Paul Flanagan has started his new role as Strategy Director, at AHDB dairy stepping into the role for at least the next 6 months. The AHDB role will be challenging but Flanagan has a track record in this area having handled First Milks Communications for more than 11 years which was certainly challenging.

Chinese dairy processor to be the official milk sponsor for the 2018 World Cup in Russia (8^th January 2018)

Mengniu Dairy Company, the second largest in China, has been confirmed as the official World Cup dairy sponsor and will supply milk, yoghurt drinks and ice cream at the FIFA World Cup Finals in Russia this summer.

It is the first time in 36 years (1982) a dairy company has been involved in World Cup sponsorship.

Arla Elected representatives meeting is set to be lively (8^th January 2018)

Arla's first 2018 UKAF Area Forum to be held at Meriden, nr Coventry, this coming Thursday 11^th is set to be a lively meeting and will certainly challenge meeting Chairmanship skills of John Cook. A second forum will be held on Thursday 8^th February.

As a forerunner last week’s BOR meeting in London flushed out Ake Hantoft who flew over to support Johnnie Russel and those who took the decision to axe Jonathan Ovens business D. Mortimer as an Arla member.

It has now come to lights that both Russel and Hantoft during 2017 both independently asked Ovens face to face to resign and having failed then proceeded to rescind the membership as has already been well documented.

The surprise to several at last week’s BOR meeting was that when questioned Hantoft evidently pointed the finger at Ovens involvement in retail PO’s as the reason he was ousted which is either a U turn or a curve ball to the HMRC issues previously suggested as the reason for Ovens execution. It’s certainly far from clear as to the exact reason(S) behind his departure.

It’s a crying shame that Amirahmadi and the Arla Commercial Team are succeeding against fierce competition (see Aldi story above) but at farm level there is top table infighting and jostling for position which is almost certain to cost Arla reputationally especially if Ovens gets the bit between his teeth and this goes legal.

The expectation is that this week’s elected representatives meeting will be an opportunity for the executioners to re communicate Ovens guilt without declaring to those present the legal basis for his crime and punishment. That’s the point at which the temperature in the room will rise.

Some claim they will be demanding details as to why Ovens membership was rescinded and exactly what crime(s) he has committed. There goal is to satisfy themselves whether it was a kangaroo court and whether the punishment fits the crime and that the process used fully complies with Arla’s Corporate & Social Responsibility Standards , The rules of UK Arla Farmers Co operative as well as EU and UK law.

The likelihood of this weeks meeting seeing high level delegates attend without prior notice from Denmark and the finance team is a near certainty. Post the meeting the matter is highly unlikely to fade away.

350 Arla farmers in for March repayment (8^th January 2018)

As part of the deal for AFMP farmers to join Arla as full members all AFMP farmers were on the hook to pay 7.5ppl joining fee based on milk produced between 1^st October 2012 and September 2013.

Due to ongoing expansion around 350 farmers overpaid and are due repayments of hundreds of thousands of pounds with at least one due towards £150,000 in March 2018.

A HSBC loan to fast track AFMP members into full membership of Arla was masterminded by Ovens and his former EDL board. One of the terms was that for as long as there was an outstanding debt on part of the loan no repayments to farmers could be made as well as the request that Ovens presided over the loan during its duration.

According to comments made to one of the farmers due a refund by an EDL Director a loan has been arranged from Arla to facilitate the repayments. That has set hares running with some questioning whether this is permitted under the Co-op’s rules especially given the circumstances behind the loan.

By paying off an estimated £1 million to £2 million via a loan from Arla at least allows the 350 farmers to receive their overpayments in March of this year. This will be the final piece in the EDL jigsaw after which it’s likely EDL will be disbanded.

Going forward new Arla recruits do not require a loan facility and can either pay an upfront lump sum joining fee, pay via their 13^th payment or from their monthly milk cheque.

As the curtain comes down on 2017 farm gate milk prices, two or three announcements warrant a mention, two of which are positive, one of which has been described as stupid. (29^th December 2017)

Muller to hold its milk price for February (29^th December 2017)

Having come in for a surprise battering from NFUS at the beginning of December (see below) when Muller announced its 1^st January Muller Direct 1.5ppl price cut comes an end of year welcome announcement from the dairy giant with the news that farm gate milk prices will be held until March 1^st with no change for February.

Lactalis (AKA The Fresh Milk Company) to hold its farmers milk price until April 1^st (29^th December 2017)

Lactalis operated differently to other processors throughout 2017 with its guaranteed minimum price and that model appears to be spilling over into 2018 with the announcement that no changes will be made to farmers’ milk prices before 1^st April, which should be a welcome New Year message for its suppliers.

NFU & NFUS are accused of being asleep at the wheel (29^th December 2017)

Arla’s actual milk price drop for 1^st January, admittedly before any additions, was 3.5 Euro Cents, almost 3ppl (2.96ppl) and NFUS was “disappointed”.

Muller’s 1^st January price drop was half the Arla one 1.5ppl and NFUS was “shocked by the steep price cut of 1.5ppl” and went on to say:

“At the first sign of cream and butter prices softening from what are historical highs, Muller has jumped at the opportunity to slash the price it pays to producers to shore up its own profits. “

Now this sort of commentary cannot go unchallenged.

If the Muller announcement was the first sign NFUS saw that cream prices and butter prices were softening they were either asleep or unable to understand the market realities. The warning signs have been abundantly clear since late summer to anyone who understands basic market intelligence.

It’s perhaps time the NFUS and their  dairy advisors and dairy boards took time to understand the figures and where UK markets fit in and to be up front with some genuine signposting as to what is coming down the line. This will require new adjectives from their dictionary but to pretend this is some sort of unforeseen shock is plain stupid.

Note, whilst the above majors on some of the unfortunate comments made by NFUS similar jaw dropping comments have recently emerged from Stoneleigh. One referred to “irresponsible commentators” accompanied by the bizarre suggestion that if every one stays quiet the current dairy commodity market problem and the rapid increase in supply will go away and/or nobody will notice that returns are reducing. This is worse than naive. Maybe they should instead study the uncomplicated data and show some leadership to farmers by advising them what they should do.

FOR SALE ON E BAY A GREAT MF 1200 ARTICULATED TRACTOR (29^th December 2017)

Auction ends on New Years day E Bay item number 272993372937

Click on  https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Massey-Ferguson-1200-Articulated-Tractor-MF-original-unmolested/272993372937?hash=item3f8fac4b09:g:7NMAAOSwB4BaPVHp

Variable & complicated nett milk price reduction for Arla members from January 1^st (21^st December 2017)

Arla’s milk price drop is far from straight forward but when you wade through the numbers the range of nett 1^st January price cuts between 2.11ppl and 0.56ppl.

All Arla farmers receive the benefit of +0.64ppl from currency smoothing plus an additional 0.21ppl cash flow balancing totally 0.85ppl.

In addition, 72% of Arla UK members benefit by 0.84ppl if they have signed up to Arlagarden plus what’s puzzling is why more haven’t signed up given the fact its worth an extra £10,400 each year to the average Arla member! Around 570 farmers have not signed up.

Then there are three components to the one collection initiative, which kick in on January 1^st

Artic Tanker Collection +0.17ppl

3” Outlet +0.13ppl

Independent Collection +0.4 ppl

0.7ppl

So the 2.11ppl worse case scenario milk price drop for some will reduce to only 0.57ppl (2.11ppl – 0.84ppl – 0.7ppl)

The Arla member 1^st January organic nett price ranges between a reduction of 1.72ppl to only 0.18ppl.

All of the conventional permutations apply to organic e.g. 1.72ppl less Arlagarden plus (0.84) less one milk collection incentives (0.7ppl) = a potential nett reduction of only 0.18ppl.

In terms of standard litre prices, which include the Arlagarden plus premium the 1^st January position is:

Conventional Organic

Liquid 29.82ppl 40.96ppl

Manufacturing 31.00ppl 42.59ppl

1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from January 1^st (21^st December 2017)

1.5ppl milk price reduction for Dairy Partners, Newcastle Emlyn producers – from 1^st January (21^st December 2017)

This results in a manufacturing standard litre price (4.2% & 3.4%) of 29.04ppl. Dairy Partners are the second cheese processor to reduce its farm gate milk price from January 1^st, however, both are into Mozzarella production for which prices continue to alarmingly head South.

First Milk to stand on with its member farm gate milk price for January (21^st December 2017)

South Caernarfon Creameries Limited to stand on with its member farm gate milk price for January (21^st December 2017)

Bitter pill in final GDT auction of 2017 (21^st December 2017)

The news that yesterday’s final GDT dairy auction concluded with an average price of only US$2969 down 3.9% and representing a 14 month low has come as a bitter pill for dairy farmers to swallow ahead of what should be a festive period.

In addition, the concensus is prices will go lower in early 2018.

Notable movers

Cheddar down 7.9% to average US$3389/tonne

SMP down 4.8% to average US$1675/tonne

WMP down 2.5% to average US$2755/tonne

Butter down 2.3% to average US$4474/tonne

Fonterra reduces its 2017/18 forecast farm gate milk price (21^st December 2017)

Fonterra has announced a reduction in its forecast milk price reducing by 5% from $6.75 to $6.40kg milk solids.

Watsons Dairies reduce volume bonuses for 5,000 litre plus suppliers – from 1^st January 2018 (21^st December 2017)

For any farmer supplying 5,000 litres or more of milk each day to Watsons Dairies AKA Medina from January 1^st their volume bonus will be cut by 0.4ppl to a maximum of 1.6ppl for anyone supplying 15,000 litres/day or more which when multiplied up is certainly an annual reduction closer to £20,000 or more.

Look forward to Christmas Hangovers – (Source DIN) (21^st December 2017)

Barry Wilson’s latest DIN Market & Prices commentary pulls no punches and highlights the grim reality that we are currently experiencing a seasonal spike in demand “masking the brutal reality of what’s coming when it clears. It is not a pretty picture” commented Dairy Industry Newsletter.

“It’s going to be a brutal start. And then, come the flush, it will get worse.”

Arla Correction (21^st December 2017)

In the last bulletin (8^th December 2017) we foolishly got our decimal point in the wrong place and the annual gain for an Arla producer by signing up to Arlagarden plus was stated as £1040 for a 1.3 million litre producer. It should have read £10,400. That’s a big error so apologies and we hope you all signed up in time. Thank you to the numerous Arla readers who were very quick to alert us to the error.

However, of bigger concern are the reasons why 28% of Arla farmers haven’t signed up to the initiative to receive the extra money.

10,000 cow Chinese dairy farm (21^st December 2017)

The numbers are staggering as are the claims on the farms animal welfare, which they claim are among the most strict in the world. Currently 2 x 80 point rotary parlours milk 3,000 cows 3 x day and the plan is increase to 10,000 cows.

The remaining news items relate to Arla/UKAF/EDL and what has been described as a bloodless coup – The three stories are in date order, concluding with a lengthy Q&A, which will be of particular interest to Arla farmers and is headed Arla – farmergeddon. (21^st December 2017)

Jonathan Ovens is No. 1 target for the Arla assassins (11^th December 2017)

Over the weekend rumours of a plot to execute current UKAF Chairman Jonathan Ovens have gathered pace and it certainly appears he is the number 1 target for what looks at the moment to be a kangaroo court with fellow UKAF board member Johnny Russell as chief prosecutor, judge, executor and undertaker all in one.

Speculation is rife with what appears to resemble a bloodful coup (AKA assassination) with suggestions that six of the ten current UKAF board members have had numerous secret meetings plotting to oust Ovens both as Chairman and as a supplying member of milk to Arla with at least two others potentially on the radar for similar treatment.

It is a fact, Ake Hantoft announced his intention to retire as Chairman of Arla Foods AMBA from May 2019 only a few days ago and this looks on the surface to have accelerated moves to oust Ovens to ensure he is completely out of the picture in terms of any succession planning to follow Hantoft.

It’s certainly explosive politics for the Arla co-op to be involved with and it’s not looking like this is going to end well for anyone in the battle for the position of top dog at Arla.

For sure this story is sure to run and run and run. We will post statements in response from the individuals concerned and or Arla as soon as they are received. 

Assassins creed. The deed is done. (13^th December 2017)

The plot to execute Jonathan Ovens succeeded on the morning of Tuesday 12^th December following a UKAF Board conference call.

With immediate effect the dairy farming business of D Mortimer & Sons, of which Jonathan Ovens is a partner, had its Arla membership terminated, which automatically triggered his ineligibility to serve as an Arla AMBA board member.  That’s basically how 6 board members, and one in particular, Russell, succeeded in their quest to remove him as both a member and as a board member.

Ovens has confirmed that he is taking legal advice on a number of fronts including personally against those directors involved in his execution on a little known defamation technicality, but as of now Ovens claims the D Mortimer business has not received notification of the grounds or charges and Ovens claims neither does he have any right of appeal. He says he was given two choices to either resign from the UKAF board in return for retaining his Arla membership or, if not, the resolution would be put to the vote.

He refused the same ultimatum which was put to him at different times by both Ake Hantoft and Johnnie Russell because he doesn't think he has done anything wrong. So on Tuesday the resolution went to the vote and the 6 who had been working on this for some considerable time ensured the axe fell.

In the 24 hours following the shock decision, email, telephone calls and text have rained in to Ian from Arla members, some of whom love Ovens, some who clearly don’t love him but most acknowledge what he has achieved on their behalf financially. And this is from both AFMP members and some former Milk Link members. They know that their businesses and their families WILL be worse off long-term without Ovens battling their corner. Most don't give a monkeys about corporate governance and some can't even pronounce it. But they do understand the milk cheque and they know Ovens is a battler in a big bad world where every trick in the book and more are being used to screw down their price. Corporate governance or a higher milk price? It's a no brainer for the farmers to put those in order of priority. And at 17ppl the farmers wouldn't care if the devil or Ronnie Biggs negotiated their price if they got a higher one. 

It’s incredible that six farmers sitting as prosecution, judge, executor and undertaker have allowed a personal vendetta between Hantoft and Russell against Ovens to come over and above the best interests of the co-op, and to side-line Arla staff and senior management in this extraordinary chain of events. They've made it look as if the whole business is being run by a bunch of squabbling amateur farmers fighting over the top job just 11 days after it became vacant. It is scandalous and the best example in history of why farmers should not be involved in running the business. 

Whilst the gang of 6, dubbed by one farmer as the Klu Klux Klan, may have received legal advice they certainly don’t appear to have thought through the PR explosion this has triggered. The fallout from this will take some controlling now unless the evidence against Ovens is damning indeed. And if it is then why doesn't Arla publish it. It has certainly re-opened the Milk Link v AFMP battle front line and over the coming months many column inches will be devoted to this because it won’t be a storm in a tea cup. This looks like being nuclear and will be if or when Ovens sets up his Producer Group. 

Good luck Arla farmers because your co-op looks as if it has been dumped in the middle of the Mother of All Shit streets.  

Below is a joint statement from the Board of Directors of Arla Foods AMBA, which was allegedly prepared prior to Tuesday’s events and which we previously agreed to publicise. Before that and on a lighter note here are a couple of quips in from farmers.

1) Thank goodness the co-operative spirit is alive and well in Arla! They say that if you want to get three farmers to co-operate you have to shoot two of them. Well Hantoft is going so he doesn't count and Ovens has been shot, so that leaves Russell. Only another 11,999 Arla members to get through!

2) (One farmer to his mate) Apparently the management in Arla House in Leeds was very quiet yesterday. (Mate replies) Yes, six farmers and a bloke from Denmark dug them an effing big hole and dumped them in it without any ropes. But its OK now. The farmers have gone back home to do the milking.

“Statement from the Board of Directors of Arla Foods amba

Today the Board of Directors of Arla Foods amba has received notification from the UKAF board (the farmer governing body of Arla Foods UK cooperative) that it has taken the decision to terminate the membership of Mr Jonathan Ovens.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of Arla Foods amba, chairman Åke Hantoft states:

“As a consequence of the decision taken by the UKAF Board to terminate the membership of Mr Jonathan Ovens, which the Arla Foods amba Board agrees with, Mr Ovens is no longer eligible to serve as a board member of Arla Foods amba and therefore leaves open a position as UK representative on the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors.

The due process to elect the replacement to the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors will now commence and the UKAF board, governed by its byelaws, will discuss what steps are required to fill the open position.

Arla Foods amba will communicate to its members when a replacement is confirmed.”

Statement from UKAF Chairman Johnnie Russell

Regarding the decision made by the UKAF board today, UKAF chairman Johnnie Russell issued the following statement earlier today:

“Today, the UKAF board (the farmer governing body of Arla Foods UK cooperative) has taken the decision to terminate the membership of Mr Jonathan Ovens, trading as D Mortimer & Sons. This regrettable step has had to be taken as a last measure in a protracted process to resolve issues of corporate governance within Emerald Debtco Limited and takes place with immediate effect. Mr Ovens has been offered a direct contract by UKAF for the supply of milk.

As part of the wider Arla Foods amba Cooperative owned by over 11,000 farmers the UKAF Board must act in the best interests of both its UK farmers and all Arla Food’s farmer owners across Europe and in accordance with the Arla Foods Corporate Social Responsibility guidelines. It has been determined that serious failings in corporate governance by Mr Ovens in his role as Chairman of Emerald Debtco Limited are prejudicial to the interests of the Cooperative. These actions also led to a loss of confidence in Mr Ovens by the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors, which supports the UKAF decision.

The decision means that Mr Ovens can no longer remain part of Arla Foods UK or a board member of Arla Foods amba and therefore leaves open a UKAF board position and that of a UK representative on the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors.

The UKAF board, governed by its byelaws, will discuss what steps are required to fill the open positions and will communicate to its members when the process has been decided.”

If any Arla members have any points, comments or questions they would like to receive answers to please email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk

Jonathan Ovens Arla-farmergeddon Q and A

As you’d expect the office has had numerous questions in from farmers regarding the Ovens dismissal. In the absence of any further information from Arla or UKAF here are some of them, with Ian’s gut feel answers (some of the answers may be incorrect on the basis of a lack of provided evidence or facts, with the answers likely to be amended as and when new information comes in). Note, Ian yesterday had a brief email exchange with chairman of UKAF/EDL Johnnie Russell in the hope he would be able to give his answers to the questions. Johnnie has stated that he will make no further statements until he stands before the elected representatives in early January (11^th).

Q. Is Ovens “dodgy”?

A. That depends entirely on the definition of dodgy. It’s difficult to judge without the evidence. Obviously he is too dodgy for Arla / UKAF else they wouldn’t have sacked him for serious failings in corporate governance which are prejudicial to the interests of the Co-operative. Thus he has been declared dodgy enough by them not to be a fit and proper person to run their businesses (and, by implication, other businesses.)

What is known is that he has been at the heart of Arla for 20 years plus and Arla and the farmers have known what he has been like for years. He has been the key farmer representative who has contributed to Arla’s rapid progress in GB. A blind eye has been turned to him (until now) because of one simple reason - he gets results for the farmers which is more money in their milk cheques. And he gets results for Arla.

Like a dirty player in a football or rugby team that bends the rules they’ve kept him on side because they’ve needed him to win games. Manchester United and others will also have the highest standards of ethics and governance, for example. But on the front line they still pick divers, chancers, cheats, fighters and foulers. Blind eyes are turned, transgressions forgiven, just so long as the results come in. As one Arla farmer commented to Ian “I am not an Ovens fan but he is a street fighter who has fought hard for us. I can’t imagine who could be a suitable substitute to replace him and who could be as effective in negotiating as he is.”

There is no question Ovens walks a fine line and crosses over it, and all of that is known about, but it’s hard to know when and by how much he has done so recently given the lack of evidence supplied by Arla or UKAF to justify what is clearly an unfit and proper person termination.

Q. Why has he been axed so quickly?

A. Don’t know. But it is abundantly clear both Ake Hantoft and Johnny Russell hate Ovens with a passion and wanted him gone sooner rather than later, certainly before Arla’s representative farmers had any opportunity to have a say in the matter. That's why it looks like a kangaroo court and a witch-hunt.

Q. Why has he been axed now?

A. Don’t know.

Q. Why wasn’t Arla’s democratic process used to give Ovens right to defend himself before a verdict was given. Innocent until proven guilty and all that?

A. The view is that Russell, Hantoft and UKAF were nervous of the farmer forum members being given a vote and failing to boot Ovens off.

According to Ovens, to date, no evidence against Ovens has been supplied to D. Mortimer and sons (the holder of Ovens’ Arla milk membership) or to Ovens. Hence the proceedings looking like that kangaroo court. He has been deemed to be guilty even before he has seen a charge sheet let alone having a hearing. This is a major issue for Arla and UKAF because everyone from war criminals charged with genocide down to people sacked at work all have the right to a fair hearing. But Ovens hasn’t been given one before his guilt has been communicated, and continues to be communicated on forums and through meetings.

In other words, Ovens has been judged to be guilty of serious failings in corporate governance through a process that also has serious failings in corporate governance. You couldn’t make it up!

The bottom line is if one Arla member can be tried and executed without a trial surely any of the other 11,000 Arla members can receive similar treatment.

Q. Why haven’t other former directors of EDL also been axed since they were part of the EDL decision making?

A. Don’t know. Another two directors of EDL are in the firing line, but the fact that Ovens has been singled out so far adds weight to the view that this is, at its core, a personal vendetta.

Q. What are the positives for Arla farmers of this move?

A. None that are obvious except for those who hate Ovens.

Q. Will this move make Arla farmers worse off?

A. Undoubtedly. That’s because Ovens has been at the epicentre of everything Arla has done with retailers and customers for years, and has been pivotal in negotiating the milk price. If farmers want someone experienced and canny to negotiate their prices then there aren’t too many battle hardened people out there that know the ropes like he does. Whatever you think about Ovens he is a canny scrapper and will battle for farmers in the big ugly corporate world which is stacked against farmers and which is so brutal and unfair that there needs to be a Grocery Code Adjudicator to try and ensure fair play. Which there still isn’t. Corporate governance takes a back seat here too, at times, and blind eyes are turned left right and centre. Don’t believe me? Then let’s start by taking a look at supermarkets asking suppliers like Arla for hundreds of thousands of pounds of backhanders in order to keep business and their products listed.

In the long-term, in my opinion, the Arla milk price is almost certainly going to be lower without Ovens at the helm.

Q. What exactly is he guilty of?

A. Don’t know. Arla / UKAF haven’t said specifically, other than there being serious failings in corporate governance.

One corporate governance failing admitted by Ovens is the large self-awarded bonus for EDL directors that has been known about by Arla and its farmers for years, and which was discussed (again) in early 2016 by the farmers who didn’t take up Ovens’ offer of holding a new review committee into the matter. Ovens and his pals were also cleared by the remuneration committee in 2015, much to Ake Hantoft’s and Johnny Russell’s abject fury.

The story here though is not WHAT Ovens was paid but WHY he was paid it. Which was basically to pooper-scoop a colossal corporate cock-up caused by Arla amba and Arla UK, quietly, out of the public eye, with minimal reputational damage to Arla within HSBC, The City of London, several Magic Circle law firms (i.e the biggest and the best in the country), and without using expensive lawyers or refinancing a sizeable debt at huge cost. It is an incredible, astonishing story and if there is one person in the land who would recognise the seriousness of all this, and its reputational impact, its former corporate banker Russell. The story is also no secret from Arla’s representative farmers.

There is also the HMRC tax investigation over the remuneration which Ovens says he has been cleared of, plus, apparently, an outstanding HMRC issue over expenses, including, it is believed, corporate hospitality (see self-declaration statement below) which Arla as a business and ALL businesses do, and have done for years. Thousands of companies every week host corporate hospitality events and it is bizarre again that Russell et al didn’t wait for the outcome of the HMRC’s investigation before sacking him if this is indeed the reason he went.

A figure of £70,000 has been cited in the press for rugby matches which is a tiny sum in the great scheme of things. It’s miniscule when multi-million pound deals are up for grabs or potentially lost and if the retailers ask for £hundreds of thousands in backhanders to keep listings (a practice now banned under the GCA).

Which again all points to something we don’t know about that damns and hangs him. In the absence of any hard evidence the speed of his execution again makes it look like a personal vendetta by Hantoft and Russell.

Q. Who has interpreted the severity, or not, of the word “serious” in the “serious failings” charge, as “serious” to one person isn’t necessarily serious to another.

Good question. The judge, jury and executioners, aka Russell and five of the EDL Board, have obviously decided the severity of the word “serious” themselves, as there is no scale or benchmark.

Except of course there IS a benchmark. Sort of. That’s because last year the farmers were offered the chance to review Ovens’ and the EDL Board’s £350,000 remuneration package (again – see above) and the farmers chose NOT to do so. In other words, that package, in their eyes, was not serious ENOUGH to warrant another investigation. Thus, whatever Ovens has done (which we aren’t being told about) MUST be more serious than that! And if it is, then it begs the question, again, as to why EDL/UKAF or Arla isn’t telling people what it is.

And there is another way to judge the severity of any crime. And that is for the farmers to decide whether the extent of any serious failings in corporate governance are more or less serious than the long-term impact on their milk prices that will arise from Arla farmers not having Ovens fighting their corner. If the corporate government failings are minor in relation to future milk incomes then that would be VERY serious.

And please nobody tell me that all of this has happened because Ovens hasn’t kept good records and it’s all about paperwork.

Q Is all of this farmer politics and infighting about expenses and salaries the real reason or is this a convenient smoke screen camouflaging other issues. Surely for us farmers it’s about the milk price and what Ovens has or hasn’t achieved?

A. There is no doubt Johnnie Russell and his mates were extremely unhappy that Ovens negotiated a fast track full membership for AFMP farmers especially when the retail premium was used to pay the joining fee debt in the first two years. This paid for AFMP members to join Arla.

The other highly likely scenario is that with Ovens gone so too, conveniently, has the knowledge he has built-up over 20 years. Ovens knows the full story from start to finish and remembers E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G.

He has been at the centre of every deal, and once he has gone it would be a white sheet of paper, and other less seasoned and battle-hardened individuals will undoubtedly have good intentions but will be like lambs led to the slaughter. Being a Director of EDL or Arla amba is certainly not one step up from being a former YFC chairman.

Who will Arla roll out in future to deal with issues with retailers and customers? Ovens isn’t indispensable but his track record of fighting for farmers and pulling rabbits (i.e money) out of a hat is second to none.

Q. Will this have a lasting effect on Arla?

A. Maybe, but not necessarily if the Arla execs and senior management step in soon, make the right decisions, and get the crisis sorted, properly, fairly and within the law, as opposed to aside from it.

At the moment, remember, this balls up has all been caused by inept farmers who stupidly told the management to stay out and away, and they would do it their way.

But if Ovens has a fair hearing and the evidence is damning and he is found guilty, then fine. No problem. Out he goes. But if the evidence IS damning, then why isn't Arla or UKAF saying what it is! And if it was then why did it compromise its own democratic principles and terminate Ovens is a way that makes it look like a kangaroo court? If Russell and the UKAF board were so sure of the case against him then why on earth didn’t they present it to the representative farmers of Arla first?

But if there’s not much or enough sound evidence against him and it looks like a Hantoft-Russell-UKAF board witch-hunt and vendetta, and they have put that above the interests of the members and their co-op, then the Arla representative farmers will have to decide what they do about that. But it will probably be fatal for Russell and the UKAF Board. They’ll likely get their marching orders I would expect.

Q. How long could it have an impact on Arla for?

A. Days or years, depending on the evidence and what Ovens decides to do.

Days if the case is damning and provided Arla is sensible in following the right and proper course of action to determine Ovens’ guilt.

But months if it doesn't and Ovens sues for wrongful termination of his contract, or for defamation, and years if he sets up a Producer Organisation for disaffected former AFMP farmers or others, and effectively goes full circle by reforming AFMP. Just without the “A” (for Arla) bit. He has been asked already!

The issue has also opened up the old battleground of Milk Link versus AFMP as former AFMP farmers will view former Milk Link director Russell as executing their talisman, who they will forgive for everything if they get a higher milk price. And especially without following the democratic rules of the society and before he had right to reply.

Q. Do you think he will set up a PO?

A. Maybe over time, but not yet. Ovens fights fire with fire and he has led farmers for decades. He’s addicted to it, and good at it. And many will follow him. Enough would anyway, but this is a long way off.

Q. How can this matter be settled?

There is a solution. It depends on the legals and if Arla’s senior management team play the right cards, carefully and cleverly. Clearly, six of the UKAF Board don’t know enough about cards to play snap or happy families.

Statement

In the interest of transparency Ian declares that over the last 20+ years he has been a guest at two rugby matches with Ovens and his fellow directors of AFMP / EDL. One was pre the Arla–Milk Link merger during AFMP days and one was as a last-minute stand-in with other industry influencers and leaders at a rugby world cup match after previous guests cancelled.

Ian has also been a guest of Arla Foods and other dairy companies and at various meals and functions as is the norm in the business world.

Assassins creed. The deed is done. (13^th December 2017)

The plot to execute Jonathan Ovens succeeded on Tuesday morning following a UKAF Board conference call.

With immediate effect the dairy farming business of D Mortimer & Sons, of which Jonathan Ovens is a partner, had its Arla membership terminated, which automatically triggered his ineligibility to serve as an Arla AMBA board member.  That’s basically how 6 board members, and one in particular, Russell, succeeded in their quest to remove him as both a member and as a board member.

Ovens has confirmed that he is taking legal advice on a number of fronts including personally against those directors involved in his execution on a little known defamation technicality, but as of now the D Mortimer business has not received notification of the grounds or charges and Ovens claims neither does he have any right of appeal. He says he was given two choices to either resign from the UKAF board in return for retaining his Arla membership or, if not, the resolution would be put to the vote.

He refused the ultimatum which was put to him at different times by both Ake Hantoft and Johnnie Russell because he doesn't think he has done anything wrong. So on Tuesday the resolution went to the vote and the 6 who had been working on this for some considerable time ensured the axe fell.

In the 24 hours following the shock decision, email, telephone calls and text have rained in to Ian from Arla members, some of whom love Ovens, some who clearly don’t love him but most acknowledge what he has achieved on their behalf financially. And this is from both AFMP members and some former Milk Link members. They know that their businesses and their families WILL be worse off long-term without Ovens battling their corner. Most don't give a monkeys about corporate governance and some can't even pronounce it. But they do understand the milk cheque and they know Ovens is a battler in a big bad world where every trick in the book and more are being used to screw down their price. Corporate governance or a higher milk price? It's a no brainer for the farmers to put those in order of priority. And at 17ppl the farmers wouldn't care if the devil or Ronnie Biggs negotiated their price if they got a higher one. 

It’s incredible that six farmers sitting as prosecution, judge, executor and undertaker have allowed a personal vendetta between Hantoft and Russell against Ovens to come over and above the best interests of the co-op, and to side-line Arla staff and management in this extraordinary chain of events. They've made it look as if the whole business is being run by a bunch of squabbling amateur farmers fighting over the top job just 11 days after it became vacant. It is scandalous and the best example in history of why farmers should not be involved in running the business. 

Whilst the gang of 6, dubbed by one farmer as the Klu Klux Klan, may have received legal advice they certainly don’t appear to have thought through the PR explosion this has triggered. The fallout from this will take some controlling now unless the evidence against Ovens is damning indeed. And if it is then why doesn't Arla publish it. It has certainly re-opened the Milk Link v AFMP battle front line and over the coming months many column inches will be devoted to this because it won’t be a storm in a tea cup. This looks like being nuclear and will be if or when Ovens sets up his Producer Group. 

Good luck Arla farmers because your co-op looks as if it has been dumped in the middle of the Mother of All Shit streets.  

Below is a joint statement from the Board of Directors of Arla Foods AMBA, which was allegedly prepared prior to Tuesday’s events and which we previously agreed to publicise. Before that and on a lighter note here are a couple of quips in from farmers.

1) Thank goodness the co-operative spirit is alive and well in Arla! They say that if you want to get three farmers to co-operate you have to shoot two of them. Well Hantoft is going so he doesn't count and Ovens has been shot, so that leaves Russell. Only another 11,999 Arla members to get through!

2) (One farmer to his mate) Apparently the management in Arla House in Leeds was very quiet yesterday. (Mate replies) Yes, six farmers and a bloke from Denmark dug them an effing big hole and dumped them in it without any ropes. But its OK now. The farmers have gone back home to do the milking.

“Statement from the Board of Directors of Arla Foods amba

Today the Board of Directors of Arla Foods amba has received notification from the UKAF board (the farmer governing body of Arla Foods UK cooperative) that it has taken the decision to terminate the membership of Mr Jonathan Ovens.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of Arla Foods amba, chairman Åke Hantoft states:

“As a consequence of the decision taken by the UKAF Board to terminate the membership of Mr Jonathan Ovens, which the Arla Foods amba Board agrees with, Mr Ovens is no longer eligible to serve as a board member of Arla Foods amba and therefore leaves open a position as UK representative on the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors.

The due process to elect the replacement to the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors will now commence and the UKAF board, governed by its byelaws, will discuss what steps are required to fill the open position.

Arla Foods amba will communicate to its members when a replacement is confirmed.”

Statement from UKAF Chairman Johnnie Russell

Regarding the decision made by the UKAF board today, UKAF chairman Johnnie Russell issued the following statement earlier today:

“Today, the UKAF board (the farmer governing body of Arla Foods UK cooperative) has taken the decision to terminate the membership of Mr Jonathan Ovens, trading as D Mortimer & Sons. This regrettable step has had to be taken as a last measure in a protracted process to resolve issues of corporate governance within Emerald Debtco Limited and takes place with immediate effect. Mr Ovens has been offered a direct contract by UKAF for the supply of milk.

As part of the wider Arla Foods amba Cooperative owned by over 11,000 farmers the UKAF Board must act in the best interests of both its UK farmers and all Arla Food’s farmer owners across Europe and in accordance with the Arla Foods Corporate Social Responsibility guidelines. It has been determined that serious failings in corporate governance by Mr Ovens in his role as Chairman of Emerald Debtco Limited are prejudicial to the interests of the Cooperative. These actions also led to a loss of confidence in Mr Ovens by the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors, which supports the UKAF decision.

The decision means that Mr Ovens can no longer remain part of Arla Foods UK or a board member of Arla Foods amba and therefore leaves open a UKAF board position and that of a UK representative on the Arla Foods amba Board of Directors.

The UKAF board, governed by its byelaws, will discuss what steps are required to fill the open positions and will communicate to its members when the process has been decided.”

If any Arla members have any points, comments or questions they would like to receive answers to please email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk

Jonathan Ovens is No. 1 target for the Arla assassins (11^th December 2017)

Over the weekend rumours of a plot to execute current UKAF Chairman Jonathan Ovens have gathered pace and it certainly appears he is the number 1 target for what looks at the moment to be a kangaroo court with fellow UKAF board member Johnny Russell as chief prosecutor, judge, executor and undertaker all in one.

Speculation is rife with what appears to resemble a bloodful coup (AKA assassination) with suggestions that six of the ten current UKAF board members have had numerous secret meetings plotting to oust Ovens both as Chairman and as a supplying member of milk to Arla with at least two others potentially on the radar for similar treatment.

It is a fact, Ake Hantoft announced his intention to retire as Chairman of Arla Foods AMBA from May 2019 only a few days ago and this looks on the surface to have accelerated moves to oust Ovens to ensure he is completely out of the picture in terms of any succession planning to follow Hantoft.

It’s certainly explosive politics for the Arla co-op to be involved with and it’s not looking like this is going to end well for anyone in the battle for the position of top dog at Arla.

For sure this story is sure to run and run and run. We will post statements in response from the individuals concerned and or Arla as soon as they are received. 

1.5ppl milk price reduction for Glanbia Cheese suppliers – from 1^st January (8^th January 2017)

This is to date the only milk for cheese January milk price reduction and reduces producers standard manufacturing litre price to 29.5ppl and based on a standard liquid litre the price is only 28.5ppl.

This price reduction has caused a stir with two Glanbia farmers contacting Ian declaring they are quitting and not prepared to sweat out another painful drop.

1.25ppl milk price reduction for Meadow Foods suppliers – from 1^st January (8^th January 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price down to 29.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.11ppl milk reduction for Sainsbury’s contracted farmers (8^th January 2017)

Farmer members of the SDDG will see a small 0.11ppl reduction from 1^st January based on its cost tracker.

The 1^st January standard liquid litre price will reduce to 28.1ppl (Muller) and 27.98ppl (Arla) (www.milkprices.com)

Dairy Crest to hold its January price (8^th January 2017)

In line with the vast majority of cheese processors Dairy Crest has announced it will hold its farmgate price until February at 32ppl based on a standard manufacturing litre and 30.92ppl for a standard liquid litre (www.milkprices.com)

DEFRA Average Farmgate milk price stood at 32.34ppl for October (8^th January 2017)

According to DEFRA the average farm gate milk price for October stands at 32.34ppl which is bit of a surprise for an average.

GDT auction index up 0.4% (8^th January 2017)

The 16% reduction in the volume offered at this weeks Auction (29,514 tonnes) helped stabilise prices but they are still at an 8 month low.

Notable movers were:

SMP +4.7% to average US$1774 tonne

WMP +1.7% to average US$2830 tonne

Cheddar -3.9% to average US$3696 tonne

Butter -11.1% to average US$4575 tonne

Arla farmers can earn around £1040 for only 20 minutes work before next Friday 15^th (8^th January 2017)

Ian was asked to help an Arla farmer submit his data online in order to participate in Arla garden plus and it took us just under 20 minutes to complete.

Given the average Arla farmer produces at least 1.3 million litres annually the extra 1 euro cent per kg (0.8ppl) incentive for submitting this data comes to £1040 per farmer for 20 minutes work.

Whilst Arla would not confirm to Ian exactly how much milk the average Arla farmer delivers they did say it was at least 1.3 million litres and then said that a week today 15^th December is the deadline for farmers to submit their details in order to get paid the extra in January to March period. For those who haven’t done it yet Ian suggests they get a wiggle on because it’s easy money.

1.5ppl milk price drop for Muller Direct suppliers from January 1^st (1^st December 2017)

This is the first confirmed milk price drop, which will affect around 700 Muller Direct farmers taking their standard liquid litre price down from 30.5p to 29ppl from January 1^st (www.milkprices.com). The fact Muller abide by the Voluntary Code is the reason for this early notification. The price reduction represents a 5% fall.

NFU Scotland have lambasted the Muller announcement claiming it will open the floodgates. The harsh reality is there are a few liquid processors who have been praying for Muller to make this announcement and they will certainly follow and quickly. The party is over and some didn’t even arrive in time to get a slice of the cake!

1ppl milk price reduction for Arla directs – from 1^st January (1^st December 2017)

This reduction will take producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Freshways give advance warning of an anticipated January milk price reduction (1^st December 2017)

Freshways gave 30 days notice to its farmers on the 27^th November of an anticipated 1^st January price reduction in the region of 1 to 2ppl based on their basket of five competitor milk prices.

In addition, they have given 60 days notice to suppliers of a reduction in volume bonuses ranging from 0.2ppl to 0.8ppl dependent on annual volumes supplied. The reductions take effect from February 2018.

South Caernarfon Creameries confirm no change to their January 2018 supplier milk price (1^st December 2017)

We wouldn’t normally mention price holds but with the current yo-yo milk pricing Ian feels any price hold announcements for January 2018 warrant a mention.

This first stand on price Ian received from SCC on Wednesday.

The January 1^st manufacturing standard litre price for the SCC co-op’s members remains at 31.03ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Barbers Cheesemakers confirm no change to their January 2018 producer milk price (1^st December 2017)

This maintains producers’ standard manufacturing litre at 31.19ppl and the standard liquid litre at 30.08ppl.

Friesland Campina December price reduction still pays out circa 36ppl (1^st December 2017)

Even after a 0.24ppl December decrease the equivalent December liquid standard litre milk price for Friesland Campina farmers equates to a healthy 36.076ppl according to www.milkprices.com

The corresponding organic liquid standard litre price will be as near as damn it 45ppl.

AMPE and MCVE continue to pull back (1^st December 2017)

The November AMPE stands at 29.2ppl down 3.5ppl (from 32.7ppl October) in one month and now below the November 2016 AMPE value of 31.5ppl. MCVE is faring a bit better at 34.9ppl down 1.7ppl from the 36.6p value for October.

Morrison liquid milk price move has snowballed (1^st December 2017)

Two weeks ago Morrisons increased its retail price of liquid milk from £1 for 4 pints to £1.10. Within days Tesco, Sainsburys, ASDA, Aldi and Waitrose have tracked Morrisons and lifted their prices.

OMSCO and Wyke Farms join forces (1^st December 2017)

OMSCO and Somerset farm house cheesemakers, Wyke Farms, have announced the joint formation of “The British Organic Dairy Company” producing organic dairy products and growing market share with sales and marketing initiatives.

Fonterra fined circa £92million (NZ $183million) (1^st December 2017)

The arbitration tribunal responsible for the dispute resolution between Fonterra and Danone concerning a Fonterra product recall in 2013 has determined that Fonterra pays an eye-watering £92million equivalent in compensation.

As a result Fonterra has immediately downgraded its forecast earnings per share by an estimated 10 cents per share equivalent to around a 20% reduction with a statement that the fine will not impact on farm gate milk prices. Howvever, when you are one of 10,500 co-op members it’s like a bulk bin if it comes out of the bottom quickly the bin soon empties and someone goes hungry. The average cost if spread across 10,500 members and their families is equivalent to around £9,000 each.

Arla stand on milk price for a second consecutive month (24^th November 2017)

It will come as no surprise that Arla are holding its member milk price for both conventional and organic for a second consecutive month. Both Muller and Arla have held prices for December and as suggested in this bulletin on November 10^th it’s almost inevitable Dairy Crest will stand alone as the only major buyer to increase its farmer milk price on December 1^st (+0.5ppl). Arlas liquid standard litre price remain at 31.05ppl and manufacturing 32.3ppl. Its organic standard liquid litre is 41.79ppl and its manufacturing 43.47ppl.

In the current climate dairy farmers would be wise to wish (and pray) that Christmas and the New Year bring with them further cheer and stability with a stand on for January and dare we even suggest February! It won’t be possible for all to hold prices this long, especially some of those exposed in the middle ground. Prices in 2018 are set to pull back, the only question is which month and by how much?

Details of local slaughterhouses wanted (24^th November 2017)

We have been approached to track down local abattoirs to deal with TB animals, which need to be removed from farm quickly, mainly on welfare grounds and not be subject to unnecessary long journeys.

The slaughter rate is not to be sniffed at so if you know a good local slaughterhouse of any size who should be considered please email the name and location to joanne@ipaquotas.co.uk Even better if you know a contact at the abattoir.

200^th GDT auction is no reason to celebrate (21^st November 2017)

Today’s 200^th GDT auction saw the average index drop a further 3.4% to average under US$3,000 to $2,970.

Notable movers were:

SMP down 6.5% to average US$1,701 tonne (under £1,290/tonne)

Butter down 5.9% to average US$5,144 tonne

Cheddar down 4.2% to average US$3,831 tonne

WMP down 2.7% to average US$2,778 tonne

GDT auctions started 9 years ago in 2008 and now has buyers from 80 counties.

Meanwhile, www.milkprices.com and their fcstonemilkprices.com UK Milk Futures equivalent is reporting its forward curve delivering a nett 24.25ppl to producers reducing to 22.25ppl when trading costs, margins and risk are factored in which is pretty grim but not so grim for those who hedged a few months ago, particularly those who hedged part of their milk and took a 2 year deal.

Similarly the latest AMPE farm gate return is coming in at around 24ppl. The New Year is going to be buckle up time.

0.5ppl milk price increase for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers – from 1^st December could be the UK’s only December producer milk price increase (10^th November 2017)

This increase to date is the only December milk price increase and could remain very lonely!

The increase takes producers standard liquid litre milk price to 30.92ppl and the manufacturing standard litre to 32ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.75ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery from 1^st November PRODUCER NOTIFIED (10^th November 2017)

This increase takes producers standard liquid litre milk price to 30.25ppl and the manufacturing standard litre to 31.2ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Stand on Milk Price for suppliers to the European Giant Friesland Campina (10^th November 2017)

Friesland Campina have held their producer milk price pay out for October at the August rate which in UK terms converts to a liquid standard litre price of 35.8ppl and for an organic standard litre is equivalent to 43.6ppl (www.milkprices.com)

GDT auction results fell a further 3.5% to average $3105 (10^th November 2017)

The latest 3.5% average auction price drop saw the price for WMP fall by 5.5% to US $2852 tonne. This the first time in seven months it has fallen below the accepted New Zealand break even price of $3,000 tonne putting further pressure on farm gate prices.

Key Price changes were:

WMP down 5.5% to average US $2852 tonne

Butter down 3.6% to average US $5516 tonne

Cheddar down 2.8% to average US $4001 tonne

SMP up 1.2% to average US $1818 tonne

94% of Northern Ireland’s 2017 SFP paid out in October (10^th November 2017)

Northern Ireland is still the only part of the UK which has once again helped its farmer’s cash flow by gaining authorisation from the Commission to make early payments of up to 70% of farmers SFP.

A total of £183 million was paid to 22,493 farmers by the 31^st October with the balancing 30% plus any remaining monies for those farmers who failed to receive an advance payment to be made on or after December 1^st.

UK milk production continues to rocket up

Latest figures from AHDB indicate that September’s milk was up 5.2%, taking the year to date figure up by 2.4% (175 million litres) equivalent to almost an extra 5 days of production clocked up in the first 6 months and seemingly increasing.

No Halloween Treats for Milk Producers – The Party is over!! (31^st October 2017)

It’s Trick or Treat today and with no new 1^st November milk price increase announcements there are no more treats and as one seasoned and respected dairy industry guru commented to Ian “The party is over for those who managed to get to it.”

The milk production statistics look a shade bleaker as each week passes with Germany producing around 4% more milk than the same time last year and France up 2.8% with the Normandy region +9%. Admittedly both were well behind in terms of comparable milk production for the first half of 2017. Also Europe’s 3^rd largest producer, the UK are rapidly heading towards a 2% increase in total milk production in the first 6 months of this milk year starting April 1^st.

According to AHDB Dairy EU milk production is up an average 3.3% across 28 member states compared to 12 months ago. Equivalent to an extra 102 million litres.

When the EU milk production giants Germany and France ramp up milk production closely followed by the UK, the end result almost appears inevitable. Buckle up lads.

Spot milk has plummeted to almost 33ppl and cream prices continue to crash back from a high of £2.95 now trading at £2, a difference worth 9.5ppl to a liquid processor. However, it’s still a relatively strong price. AMPE has dropped by an eye-watering 7.2ppl (18%) in just one month from 39.9ppl to 32.7ppl. This is really significant, particularly for the likes of Barbours’ producers, who receive a market related milk price for extra litres above their base volume (+8%) of AMPE less 2ppl. For September that price paid to its farmers was 37.9ppl for October it’s down to 30.7ppl.

To pile on the pressure the suggestion is that when Intervention buying re-opens in March 2018 it is via a tender process with the fixed price for Intervention SMP and volume targets removed from day 1. Futures prices instantly and significantly reacted to this news heading south because if this policy is confirmed there will be no floor in the market. It would appear that only Mother Nature can intervene and she could either cut production or add to it further come the spring. Remember there is still close to 400,000 tonnes of SMP in EU Intervention stores, which will have to be sold.

Dairy UK’s UK Dairy Industry White Paper is an interesting read (31^st October 2017)

Rarely does the mention of a White Paper flick any lights on with Ian, however, the timing and content of the one published last Thursday by Dairy UK prompted Ian to study it.

It covers a range of topics including Brexit, dairy farming, consumers and marketing as well as world dairy trade and future prospects.

With a turnover of £28 billion per annum and 70,000 people relying on the industry for employment there is a lot at stake and the elephant in the room is Brexit.

The report quotes average herd size for 13,227 farms at 143 cows and comments “UK dairy farmers are professional, dedicated and efficient. UK dairy farming is internationally competitive with a considerable latent capacity for growth”

To view the paper click on http://dairyuk.org/media-area/resources/item/the-white-paper-2017

Correction (31^st October 2017)

Mike Gallagher, in his Army career, was actually involved with bomb disposal. Bomb disposal proved to be an extremely useful attribute for his mammoth task at First Milk where he successfully defused the bomb and averted the collapse of the co-op.

Scottish dairy farmers urged to sign up asap (31^st October 2017)

For Scottish dairy farmers the membership fee for Dairy Pro (the professional development register for the dairy industry) is free for 2017/2018 courtesy of Scottish Government and AHDB.

AHDB and the Scottish Government are aiming to have all Scottish dairy farmers signed up to Dairy Pro by December 31^st

Dairy Pro enables farmers to view and register for training and events. In addition there is a range of activities including entrepreneurship classes, dairy discussion groups, workshops and meetings on topics from soil management to animal health, nutrition to business and people management, as well as on-line modules, quizzes and videos.

Farmers can register at www.dairypro.co.uk.

This bulletin comes to you free – in return please ……. (20^th October 2017)

…….. complete this simple foreign labour questionnaire if you are a dairy farmer. Either click on this link and complete it online or email us for a copy ……. https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/RABDF

Farmer recipients of this bulletin who do not complete the survey will be telephoned by us for details.

Many thanks for your co-operation and for hopefully completing this very important survey.

0.5ppl milk price increase for Paynes suppliers - From November 1^st (20^th October 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid price to 30.5ppl (www.milkprices.com) and in this market environment a further 0.5ppl increase is an achievement as well as a bit of a surprise.

0.5ppl milk price increase for First Milk members – From 1^st November (20^th October 2017)

The increase results in the following standard litre prices:

Manufacturing Liquid

Haverfordwest 30.57ppl 29.56ppl

Lake District 30.45ppl 29.44ppl

Midlands & East Wales 29.40ppl

Scotland 29.09ppl

Arla stand on member milk price for November (20^th October 2017)

Arla’s decision to roll over the existing member milk price at 31.05ppl (32.3ppl based on a manufacturing standard litre) has surprised many and it’s almost inevitable member milk prices are at the top of curve in terms of returns from the market place, excluding increases from currency smoothing and other potential contributors.

GDT prices ease again (20^th October 2017)

Tuesday’s GDT Auction results saw average prices continue to ease this time by 1% to average US$3204

SMP down 5.6%

Butter down 2.5%

WMP down 0.5%

In General (20^th October 2017)

Spot milk is off the boil with limited quantities trading around 37p and prices trending south.

The recent cream highs of £2.95/£3.00 have dropped like a stone to £2.25/£2.30 equivalent to a reduction of 7ppl in a matter of weeks. European cheese prices are also falling.

With production up in most of the EU member states (20 of them) there are concerns as to how much milk will be sloshing around next spring if a big flush comes. Major increases include Ireland +11%, Poland +5% and UK +2%.

First Milk’s Annual Results include former CEO’s pay-out (20^th October 2017)

Included in a much improved set of results from First Milk for the year ending 31^st March 2017 are details of former CEO Mike Gallacher’s remuneration.

For sure Gallacher inherited a co-op, which was walking a tightrope in terms how close it was to closing its doors potentially leaving 700 or so dairy farmers experiencing even more financial pain. He fixed it and quicker than anyone imagined.

Mike’s total 2017 remuneration was £1.155 million including a final contractual payment of £553,000. In 2016 he received £539,000.

Some will say the former army bomb disposal man works on the premise of “Who Dares Wins” but when he took the turnaround job on most in the industry gave him Bob Hope and No Hope but he succeeded for which he is entitled to be remunerated properly.

Key details from First Milk’s financials (20^th October 2017)

Turnover down 30% to £206.5 million (£294.2 million 2016)

Operating profit up 95% to £11.7 million (£6.0 million 2016)

Net Bank Borrowing up 17% to £37.6 million (£32.1 million 2016)

Pension Debit Liability up 75% £11.2 million (£6.4 million in 2016)

Nett Profit up 17% £6 million (£5.1 million loss in 2016)

First Milk are certainly a shadow of their former size in terms of milk volume and member numbers and have now slipped from 3^rd into, at best, 5^th place in terms of UK dairy processor size having been comfortably overtaken by both Meadow and Dale Farm.

1ppl milk price increase for Pensworth Dairy suppliers – from 1^st November (9^th October 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for OMSCO 270 producers – from 1^st October (9^th October 2017)

In addition, OMSCO have announced a 0.25ppl cell count bonus.

0.98ppl milk price increase for CTRG (Co-op) suppliers – from 1^st November (9^th October 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.39ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.8ppl milk price increase for Waitrose suppliers – from 14^th September

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30.92ppl (www.milkprices.com) (9^th October 2017)

0.75ppl milk price increase for Belton Farm suppliers – from 1^st November (9^th October 2017)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 30.75ppl and the standard liquid litre price to 30ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.5ppl milk price increase for South Caernarfon Creameries suppliers – from 1^st November (9^th October 2017)

This increase is in the form of a 1^st November to 28^th February 2018 winter premium payment.

0.5ppl milk price increase for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers – from 1^st November (9^th October 2017)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 31.5ppl and on a standard liquid litre price to 30.42ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.36ppl milk price increase for Marks & Spencers suppliers – from 1^st October (9^th October 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30.44ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Friesland Campina 35.73ppl October milk price (9^th October 2017)

The latest 1.25 Euro per kg milk price increase announcement for Friesland Campina suppliers according to current exchange rates results in standard liquid litre price of 35.73ppl (www.milkprices.com)

GDT prices down 2.4% (9^th October 2017)

GDT auction prices reflect current national and international market sentiment recording a fall in most key commodity prices with only cheddar prices recording a positive move. Note, the volume of product on offer was up 11% on that offered last month.

Key movers:

Butter -3.6% to average US$5837

WMP -2.7% to average US$3037

SMP -1.4% to average US$1895

Cheddar +1.9% to average US$4109

RABDF Conference (9^th October 2017)

There's little doubt the RABDF has pulled its trousers up after the loss of its flagship show last year, and is upping its work on key areas like labour in order to fulfil its brief of  "delivering more depth to members and the wider industry".  We'll be helping them get more facts on this crucial issue over the next few weeks to try and prove the seriousness of the issue to the Government, so please help us to help the RABDF to help you. More details will follow.

Next on the RABDF's agenda is a relaunch of its once successful Business and Policy Conference, which takes place on Wednesday 18 October in London. 

A high profile line up of speakers will talk about the potential effects Brexit could have on the UK dairy industry, and will focus on key topics including the organisation's recently published report into European labour, AMR strategies, industry trends and the findings of Mike Houghton’s Trehane Fellowship report. More details and tickets from www.rabdf.co.uk/business-policy-conference with preferential rates for RABDF members and farmers.

Foreign labour on UK dairy farms is critical (9^th October 2017)

The RABDF has delivered a report to DEFRA detailing how critical the maintenance of the open pipeline of foreign labour is to UK dairy farmers. The report states:

“Current reliance on EU labour would mean an almost catastrophic failure within the sector should short term access to overseas labour not be maintained” and

“measures to secure continued access to semi-skilled and skilled European labour must be in place to avoid disadvantaging UK dairy farmers and impacting on the economic viability of the sector ….”

In her industry comments at last week’s South West Dairy Show, NFU Deputy President Minette Batters referred to a dairy labour crisis pointing to 43 adverts for dairy herdsmen in Farmers Weekly and a backlog of vacancies to fill with numerous dairy labour agencies. Minette suggested that dairy farmers were quitting because they simply cannot find the staff.

Ian plans to do some survey work with farmer recipients of this bulletin on this very important Brexit issue.

Polish dairy to join the ever expanding GDT auction family (9^th October 2017)

Polish Dairy is the latest dairy product seller to join GDT auctions and will offer product from next month when it will initially offer key products including WMP, SMP and butter to over 500 worldwide registered buyers.

1ppl milk price increase for Meadow Food suppliers – from 1^st November (29^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 31ppl and based on the standard manufacturing litre the price is 31.25ppl (Cumbria) and 31.38ppl (Cheshire). (www.milkprices.com)

Meadow are one of the few milk purchasers who offer a B price, which for August deliveries was 35ppl and for September is budgeted to be at a similar level sitting somewhere between 33 to 36ppl.

1ppl milk price increase for Arla Directs – from 1^st October (29^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29ppl and based on the standard manufacturing litre the price is 30.16ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Crediton Dairy suppliers – from 1^st November (29^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 31ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

0.5ppl milk price increase for Muller Direct suppliers – from 1^st November (29^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30.5ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

1 to 1.1ppl milk price increases for First Milk members – from 1^st October (29^th September 2017)

The increase and resulting 1^st October standard litre prices (www.milkprices.com) are as follows:

Pool 1^st October 1^st October standard litre price

increase Manufacturing Liquid

Midland & East Wales 1.1ppl 28.90ppl

Scotland 1.1ppl 28.59ppl

Haverfordwest 1.0ppl 30.05ppl 29.06ppl

Lake District 1.0ppl 29.93ppl 28.97ppl

0.5ppl milk price increase for Wyke Farms suppliers – from 1^st November (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (29^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30.15ppl and based on the standard manufacturing litre price 31.22ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.13ppl milk price reduction for Tesco (TSDG) aligned producers – from 1^st November (29^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to:

Muller Tesco 29.45ppl

Arla Tesco 32.46ppl (based on the Arla member price for 1^st October 31.04ppl)

The 0.13ppl reduction is based on feed, fuel and fertilizer prices supplied by Anglia Farmers and crunched by Promar.

Milk Prices as at October 1^st (based on www.milkprices.com standard liquid litre) (29^th September 2017)

Tesco Arla 32.59ppl

Arla Foods Non-Aligned 31.04ppl

Crediton Dairy 30.00ppl

Freshways 30.00ppl

Meadow Foods 30.00ppl

Muller Direct 30.00ppl

Paynes 30.00ppl

Glanbia 29.96ppl

Davidstow 29.92ppl

Grahams Scotland 29.75ppl

Wyke Farms 29.65ppl

Tesco Muller 29.58ppl

Pattermores 29.50ppl

Arla Directs 29.00ppl

Pensworth 29.00ppl

First Milk Midlands 28.90ppl

Lactalis/Caledonian 28.50ppl

Sainsburys SDDG 28.09ppl

1.55ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Payne's Dairies - from 1st October (25^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 30ppl www.milkprices.com

1.5ppl/1.43ppl total increase for Arla members - from October 1^st (25^th September 2017)
Arla have increased members’ October milk price by 1.5ppl split into 0.84ppl based on a 1 Euro Cent price increase plus 0.66ppl for currency smoothing taking producers’ manufacturing standard litre to 32.30ppl.

The total increase amounts to 1.43ppl for liquid suppliers and for the 1st October the liquid standard litre price will be 31.04ppl.

The organic standard manufacturing litre price increases to 43.47ppl as a result of a currency smoothing increase of 0.66ppl and the organic liquid standard litre price increases by 0.63ppl to 41.79ppl www.milkprices.com

1ppl milk price increase for Grahams Dairies suppliers - from 1st October (25^th September 2017)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.75ppl wwwmilkprices.com

1ppl milk price increase for Yew Tree Dairies liquid contracted suppliers - from 15th October (25^th September 2017)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30ppl www.milkprices.com

0.24ppl COP milk price increase for SDDG (Sainsbury's) - from October 1^st (25^th September 2017)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.21ppl for Muller contracted producers and 28.09ppl for Arla contracted producers www.milkprices.com

30 jobs to go at First Milk Creameries at Lake District (20) and Haverfordwest (10) (25^th September 2017)

The reductions are as a result of capital investments at both sites and First Milk are aware that these investments need to translate into cost savings, which urgently need to be converted into improved payments in milk prices to members.

1ppl milk price increase for Freshways suppliers – from 1^st October (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (15^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30ppl (www.milkprices.com)

36ppl for Friesland Campina producers – from 1^st September (15^th September 2017)

Following the announcement of yet another price rise taking the total increase year on year to 14.6ppl www.milkprices.com calculate that the current September Friesland Campina milk price based on milkprices.com UK  standard liquid litre converts to 35.969ppl, with its corresponding organic price converting to 43.517ppl.  The actual September price increase amounts to 2.56ppl.

There was a time when the Arla milk price tracked the FC price but not this time as the gap continues to widen

UK Dairy Day gets the thumbs up (15^th September 2017)

By special invitation Ian made his first visit to UK Dairy Day at Telford on Wednesday and it appeared to be a huge success.

Understandably given the current long awaited upward trend in milk prices farmers and exhibitors were all optimistic for the future (some perhaps cautiously optimistic) and the show had a real buzz and attendance was rumoured to be a record 9000 plus for this, its fourth annual event.

Full marks to the organisers because for Ian the event was well organised from the parking through to the exit procedure.  The lay out of the event was good and there was certainly plenty for anyone involved in dairying to fill their day up.

Congratulations to Holstein UK for making sure the post show media headlines were positive with no one stepping out of line or attempting to cast a cloud over the organisational efforts, which led to the events success.  Ian even managed to walk the cattle lines amidst smiles and welcomes, although he half expected one or two exhibitors might want to lasso him and dig their spurs in his shins, if not throw their prized stolen tomahawks in his back. But fortunately there seemed to be enough alert Sherrifs to keep any cowboys at bay.

Indeed the only grumbles which were made to Ian came after the show and related to issues involving two well known dairy exhibitors with one of them having a winning animal supposed to be exhibitor bred but allegedly was of Swiss origin with a Swiss tag. Both appeared to be fairly minor issues compared to what both exhibitors could have achieved if they had wanted to attract negative attention to the event.

It’s certainly one for Ian’s diary for 2018.

Paul Vernon CEO of Glanbia Cheese is Dairy UK’s new chairman (15^th September 2017)

Paul Vernon has taken over from David Dobbin as Chairman of Dairy UK whose term of office ended at this week’s AGM.  In addition, Andrew McInnes, MD of Muller and Thomas Pietrangeli, MD Arla Foods, are both vice chairs.

David Dobbin will be a very tough act to follow and stepping into his shoes will not be easy for Paul, especially when UK dairy faces so may big challenges.  We look forward to Paul making his mark as chairman of the organisation.

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1^st October (8^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase fro suppliers to Pattemores Dairy, Somerset – from 1^st October (8^th September 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.50ppl (www.milkprices.com)

GDT up 0.3% (8^th September 2017)

Butter prices continued to head north at this week’s auction. The key movements were:

Butter +3.8% to average US$5954/tonne

Cheddar +2.5% to average US$4118/tonne

SMP -1.2% to average US$1944/tonne

WMP -1.6% to average US$3100/tonne

Spot butter, if there is any to trade, is reported to be changing hands trading for up to £6400/tonne (€7,000).

Barbers pay 38.1ppl on August deliveries above the Base Volume (8^th September 2017)

Barbers decision to pay a transparent AMPE minus 2ppl related price for deliveries above the 8% threshold is certainly paying off for its farmers who are able to produce more milk with a nett August payout of 38.1ppl on those extra litres up 3.4ppl on the 34.7ppl paid in July.

New dairy auction partnership in Europe (8^th September 2017)

GDT and EEX (Europe Energy Exchange) have signed a letter of intent with a view to working in partnership to launch an auction mechanism for European dairy products.

The muscle and expertise GDT brings to the table having run almost 200 twice monthly dairy auctions and now involving 520 buyers from 80 countries probably indicates the European auction will happen. Once launched it will provide more relevant local price discovery and trends for UK farmers to monitor.

Medina Dairy Commercial letter could have done better (8^th September 2017)

In a letter dated 11^th August 2017 from Medina’s Commercial Director to its liquid customers its clear the author did not do his research and by default didn’t really state the truth behind the 4ppl August milk price increase, which Medina have pushed through.

The letter states, “As you may be aware from recent communications and news articles, milk production in the UK has been slipping backwards compared to this time last year.”

Sorry Medina but UK milk production in June was up 24 million litres or 1.9% and

in July was up 21 million litres or 1.8%

What perhaps should have been stated is that demand, particularly for fat, has rocketed worldwide and not that the reason for prices increasing is based on lack of supply/UK production slipping back.

The author then mischievously went on to state “Milk availability from farms is very tight and we find ourselves having to pay inflated prices to secure milk required to satisfy customer orders.”

The use of the word inflated was the main reason eyes were raised by one reader who received the letter. On the flip side the letter does recognise that Medina farmers have to be paid more money to cover increased costs, which is bang on the money and Medina are clearly increasing prices to customers in recognition that higher farm gate prices are likely to continue for at least the medium term.

AMPE breaks 40ppl and MCVE reaches a new record (4^th September 2017)

AMPE has reached a new high for August at 40.1ppl as has MCVE which stands at 38.7ppl. The all time low points were only 16 months ago in April 2016 with AMPE at 15.5ppl and MCVE 15.7ppl.

The two market indicators started in January 2010 and both give a useful estimate of market returns and current price trends. For more details log on to https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/market-indicators/ampe-mcve/#.Wa1hkNLrvoC

Cream income worth 16.66ppl to a liquid processor but whose having that cream? (4^th September 2017)

According to AHDB Dairy 12 months ago cream income was worth 8.6ppl to a liquid processor and is now almost double at 16.66ppl and another record high. Problem is whilst its worth 16.66ppl in a number of aligned cases it’s the retailer who has pocketed most, if not all, of the extra cream income.

30p plus is a clear target (4^th September 2017)

Below are 15 more milk price increases and based on a liquid standard litre it’s clear any milk purchaser who does not pay at least 30ppl by October 1^st at the latest is under the spotlight and any suppliers should be asking for an explanation why they are the poor relations holding out their begging bowl again!

1ppl milk price increase for Muller Direct (non aligned) suppliers – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30ppl above the Tesco aligned price, especially when scale back is factored in (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Muller Organic suppliers – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ organic standard liquid litre price to 41.5pl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Arla Directs – from 1^st September (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and the corresponding manufacturing standard litre price to 29.12ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 31.03ppl and the corresponding liquid standard litre price to 30.01ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Glanbia (Cheese) – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre to 31ppl and the corresponding liquid standard litre price to 29.96ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Pensworth – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Wyke Farms (Cheese) suppliers – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 30.07ppl and the corresponding liquid standard litre price to 29.65pl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Wensleydale Hawes suppliers – from 1^st September - PRODUCER NOTIFIED (4^th September 2017)

This increase takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 30.45ppl and the corresponding liquid standard litre price to 29.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.5ppl milk price increases for Lactalis suppliers – split over two months - PRODUCER NOTIFIED (4^th September 2017)

The increases are 1ppl on October 1^st and 0.5ppl on December 1^st. Note, Lactalis gave its producers a guaranteed minimum price of 27.5ppl for all of 2017 back in 2016.

The 1ppl October increase takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.51ppl and the corresponding liquid standard litre to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Between 1ppl to 1.1ppl milk price rises for First Milk members – from 1^st September (4^th September 2017)

The co-op’s increases are as follows:

1^st September standard litre price

Liquid Manufacturing

Midlands +1.1ppl 27.8ppl

Scotland +1.1ppl 27.49ppl

Lake District +1ppl 27.98ppl 28.93ppl

Havefordwest +1ppl 28.10ppl 29.05ppl

Haverfordwest

Tesco Group +1ppl 29.60ppl 30.55ppl

0.7ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1^st October (4^th September 2017)

Fixed price contract offering for Crediton Dairy suppliers (4^th September 2017)

Crediton Dairy are offering its farmers the opportunity to fix either 10% or 20% of their milk output for 2 years at 28ppl starting next month. The initial litreage on offer is 10 million litres with all farmers guaranteed 10% and if the 20% option is over subscribed scale back will be applied but only to those seeking to fix 20% of their 2 year output.

1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Crediton Dairy – from 1^st October (25^th August 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 30ppl (www.milkprices.com)

The increase is broken down in to two parts. A base price increase of 1.3ppl plus an additional 0.2ppl, which has been added where bactoscans are below 30,000ml. Note, Crediton’s average bactoscan count is within the 20,000 to 25,000 range.

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheesemakers) – from 1^st October (25^th August 2017)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 30ppl.

0.79ppl (1 Euro Cent) increase for Arla Foods members – from 1^st September (25^th August 2017)

The Arla conventional price for a standard liquid litre increases by 0.79ppl to give a new standard litre price of 29.61ppl. Based on a manufacturing standard litre the September 1^st price increase is by 0.81ppl resulting in a September manufacturing standard litre of 30.79ppl.

The UK organic liquid standard litre remains unchanged at 41.16ppl and its manufacturing equivalent at 42.81ppl. Note, the organic milk price in Germany, Denmark & Sweden does increase from September 1^st by 0.79ppl (liquid) and 0.81ppl (manufacturing). (www.milkprices.com)

Milk production update (25^th August 2017)

According to AHDB Dairy GB milk deliveries are up 0.8% higher than the same week a year ago, which equates to 200,000 litres/day.

Deliveries for July are estimated to be up 1.4% on the year at 989 million litres.

June EU milk production across all 28 member states was up a tasty 2.7% compared to June 2016.

2ppl milk price increase for Dairy Crest’s Davidstow suppliers – from 1^st October (21^st August 2017)

This takes producers standard manufacturing litre price to 31ppl and the standard liquid litre price to 29.92ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Wensleydale Hawes suppliers – from 1^st August (21^st August 2017)

This take producers standard manufacturing litre price to 29.45ppl and the standard liquid litre price to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Grahams Dairies suppliers – from 1^st September (21^st August 2017)

This take producers standard liquid litre price to 28.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.19ppl cost compensation payment to 300 Arla Farmers from Morrisons (21^st August 2017)

Morrisons have announced several changes to its Milk for farmers range which involves 300 invited Arla farmers.

Of the 300 involved 50 are the dedicated pool supplying upto 60 million litres of segregated milk processed at Arla’s Aylesbury facility.

These 50 farms supply milk to Morrisons to higher welfare standards and requirements which are above those set by Arlagarden as well as ensuring their cows are out grazing for a minimum of 120 days each year. The cost compensation they will receive is 1.19ppl split 0.96ppl to compensate for milk recording mobility scoring etc plus 0.23ppl as a grazing payment. These payments will be made by Morrisons from the 1^st of this month/August.

The remaining 250 Morrisons farmers, who are nominated as apposed to dedicated, receive the 0.96ppl compensation but do not have to meet the 120 day minimum grazing requirement and consequently do not receive the additional 0.23ppl. These farmers have to fulfil the additional higher welfare requirements by 1^st September (2017) with some dispensation for special circumstances for example farmers who haven’t previously milk recorded and need to install the kit.

The 300 farmers have all been invited by Arla & Morrisons based on logistics only a couple have rejected the opportunity whilst others have been very keen to join the substitutes list.

Morrisons continue to sell the milk for farmers range at a premium with the extra 10ppl consumers pay going to supporting British Farmers and their extra efforts.

Note Arla will be sole suppliers to Morrisons from spring 2018.

Spelling correction on story regarding Fayrefields Liquids (21^st August 2017)

In the story regarding Meadow Foods buying Fayrefields Liquids division we stated:

We have been in dispute with Muller regarding the supplement, but unfortunately it has now been resolved, causing our milk business model to be dysfunctional and lose substantial sums of money.

There was a spelling error and the word now should have been not and the line should have read as follows …..

We have been in dispute with Muller regarding the supplement, but unfortunately it has NOT been resolved, causing our milk business model to be dysfunctional and lose substantial sums of money.

Muller’s take on Fayrefields comments (21^st August 2017)

For Muller there is no case to answer regarding the retailer supplement. Muller commented “The allocation of supplementary payments from certain retailers to Muller dairy farmer suppliers during a period when the market for farm gate was depressed, was handled transparently by Muller and aligned with customers in advance.”

Basically Muller have numerous third party supply contracts which are based entirely on volume, price and are for a period of time and as was the case with Fayrefield do not relate to Muller’s non-aligned farm gate price. In fact, the Fayrefield contract should be better described as a premium price Muller paid and the percentage Fayrefield distributed to its supplying farmers is entirely down to Fayrefield.

Muller also commented: “Third party companies from whom we buy milk receive a price per litre which is negotiated and agreed. How they then choose to use that income is entirely a matter for them.”

The litmus test will be whether Meadow continue to pursue a similar dispute with Muller now they own the business.

1.25ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Barbers Farmhouse Cheese (9^th August 2017)

Split over two months as follows:

0.75ppl from October 1^st takes producers standard liquid litre price to 29.586ppl and the standard manufacturing litre to 30.681ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.50ppl from November 1^st takes producers standard liquid litre price to 30.074ppl and the standard manufacturing litre to 31.193ppl (www.milkprices.com)

In addition farmers who increase production by 8% or more receive AMPE minus 2ppl, which on today’s numbers, with AMPE at 36.7ppl, equates to 34.7ppl on July additional deliveries.

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Glanbia Cheese – from 1^st September (9^th August 2017)

This takes producers manufacturing standard litre to 30ppl and the standard liquid litre to 29ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Pattemores – from 1^st September (9^th August 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.75ppl milk price increase for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries Limited – from 1^st September (9^th August 2017)

This takes producers standard manufacturing litre to 30.03ppl and the standard liquid litre to 29.01ppl.

SCC are selectively recruiting new suppliers in mid and North Wales.

0.75ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese - from 1^st September (9^th August 2017)

GDT volume up and average down 1.6% (9^th August 2017)

Last Tuesday’s GDT auction produced an average index down 1.6%; however, note the volume on offer increased by 23%.

Notable movers were:

Butter down 4.9%

Cheddar down 4.8%

SMP down 3.0%

WMP up 1.3%

Don’t get excited and go mad (9^th August 2017)

September price increases push most competitive farm gate milk prices to the 28 to 30p bracket by September on a standard liquid litre. However, most analysts, backed up by forward price expectations, anticipate production will increase in 2018, especially from June onwards where forward price expectations are now cooling.

0.356ppl retail supplement confirmed by Muller for July deliveries (9^th August 2017)

This will be paid to Muller Direct (non aligned) farmers.

Meadow Foods acquires Fayrefields Liquids division (9^th August 2017)

It was inevitable that the intervention and investment in Meadow Foods by Paine & Partners almost 12 months ago would result in expansion and acquisition and this is the first move with Meadow acquiring Fayrefield Foods liquid business, which sits within their existing milk field areas so it’s a logical move and fit.

Meadow are presently meeting existing Fayrefield farmer suppliers to explore integration of contractual terms to bring all suppliers onto one Meadow contract. Those who choose to sign up and commit to Meadow this month will see a 1.15ppl increase on their standard liquid litre milk price backdated to August 1^st.

In a letter announcing the sale to its suppliers Fayrefield clearly point the finger towards an almost forced sale as a result of the dispute between Fayrefield and Muller and Muller’s refusal to pass on any of the retailer supplement payments. The letter states:

“Our decision to exit the liquid milk business was taken reluctantly. The main reason is the ‘retail supplement’ which has significantly compromised the milk returns to our farmers. The way the supplement has been distributed has caused Fayrefield to lose significant money on liquid milk since the supplement started.

Fayrefield Foods procure significant quantities of dairy product from Muller, and Fayrefield supply Muller with significant volumes of quality British milk. The supermarkets pay Muller a ‘retail supplement’ on liquid milk to help struggling British farmers, but Muller has refused to pass on any of the supplementary payments to Fayrefield to give to our farmers.

We have been in dispute with Muller regarding the supplement, but unfortunately it has not been resolved, causing our milk business model to be dysfunctional and lose substantial sums of money.

We don’t believe the retailers, who initiated the supplement, intended to discriminate against so many UK farmers in this way.”

To be fair the distribution of the retail supplements has certainly been discriminatory and cost a number of farmers collectively into the millions of £ and seems to have passed without any real comment or challenge. Fayrefield have clearly been pushed into a corner and faced with two options in either continuing to fulfil current contracts and either losing money or paying farmer suppliers an off the pace uncompetitive milk price or selling the business. From a supplying farmers selfish point of view the decision taken by Fayrefield to sell its liquids division is likely to have been the least painful one to its farmers.

Muller unveils its non-aligned Muller Direct Futures facility (9^th August 2017)

After several months of preparation Muller has unveiled its new futures hedging contract allowing producers to fix their farm gate milk price on up to 25% of their anticipated milk supply for 12 months.

The facility is available to the 700 or so Muller non-aligned farmers who going forward will be known as Muller Direct.

At first sight it sounds complicated but in reality it’s fairly straightforward.

On the third Wednesday of each month Muller Direct suppliers will be able to log in and view a paid price to them for each of 12 months based on a www.milkprices.com standard litre.

This window of opportunity will be open for 24 hours following which once closed Muller have up to a further 48 hours to execute the trades with FC Stone.  Pilot work and dummy runs suggest the backing of trades within this 48 hour window is achievable.  Note, if the execution price varies by +2% there will be no commitment for the farmer to trade and if trade is below the quoted figure Muller will not execute a trade which eliminates any downside to the farmer from a downward price movement.

A farmer will trade over 12 months so if say he wants to trade 10,000 litres month he will trade the minimum lot size of 120,000 litres and trade at 12 individually monthly prices  x 10,000 litres which he presumably will average out over the 12 month period.

A farmer doesn’t have to trade all 12 months at one go and could in the example above trade 5 months x 10,000 and trade the remaining 7 months at a later date.  In the unlikely event he signs up to trade and fails to place trades for part of his allocation he will simply receive an AMPE related milk price.

The planned allocations are as follows:

35 million litres in August 2017

35 million litres in January 2018

30 million litres in April 2018

100 million litres

Note, these are allocations and do not have to all be traded in these months.

So for any 30 million litre allocation it would require 250 of the 700 Muller Direct farmers to take one minimum allocation of 120,000 litres for it to be fully subscribed following which scale back will be triggered. For a 35 million litre allocation it equates to 291 farmers on minimum allocations prior to scale back

Muller’s aim is to be fair and ensure any scale back gives an equal opportunity for producers of all herd sizes to trade.

Transparency will be maintained and policed by Steven Bradley (www.milkprices.com) whose job it will be to convert the current EEX price to a ppl price then deduct a declared processor margin, 0.55ppl trading fee to provide a nett milk price paid to the farmer for publication on the website.

It’s a big move by Muller and farmers are likely to fall into one of 3 categories:

(a)    Don’t intend to use the hedging mechanism for a number of reasons

(b)    Will monitor what happens, aim to understand how it works and might give it a trial

(c)    Instantly grasp the concept and logging in to the 24 hour window will be a must do and will trade when they can hedge and secure a margin over their COP.

More commentary on hedging and smoothing mechanisms will appear in Ian’s next Dairy Farmer article.

The real work must now fall to the newly formed group of Muller farmer representatives whose job it must be to meet farmers and explain how it works and why it’s a useful tool.  It’s perhaps a unique opportunity for those of the 21 who are on retailer aligned contracts to demonstrate that they do represent all Muller producers interests in their patch.

Muller launch Muller Farm Insight (9^th August 2017)

Muller have certainly been busy pulling together new ideas for its non-aligned farmers (Muller Direct) and launching them this month.

Ready at the end of this month is 12 month pilot named Farm Insight, which is up to 1 days free and optional on farm consultancy together with a report to cover a range of issues prepared by AB Sustain (part of the AB Agri Group).

Areas to be covered include likely implications of Brexit and comparative farm data with the hope it will help producers be more competitive in the future, especially in a post Brexit and SFP world.

Most of the dairy retailer aligned farmers have seen positive cash advantages as a result of on farm improvements which have both reduced cost of production and/or increased output.  Farm Insight is entirely voluntary for the 700 farmers but given its funded by Muller it must surely worth taking advantage of. 

However, it’s fine taking advantage of the opportunity but for some farmers change does not come willingly or easily and if you don’t intend to implement change there seems little point going through the exercise.

Note, when Ian asked Muller about their access to the comparative data Muller stated that the agreement they have signed will give them access to the combined group comparative data but no individual farm data which would highlight to Muller the lowest and highest cost of production farms.

0.75ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Pensworth Milk – from 1^st September (4th August 2017)

This 0.75ppl increase for September follows another 0.75ppl increase from 1^st August

1.31ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Muller Direct - from 1^st September (1^st August 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 29ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Arla Direct - from 1^st August (1^st August 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 27ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.85ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Meadow Foods - from 1^st September (1^st August 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 29ppl (www.milkprices.com). Meadow Foods B price for July will be between 30ppl to 33ppl.

First Milk’s August 1^st milk price increases (1^st August 2017)

0.9ppl Scotland resulting in a standard liquid litre price of 26.39ppl

0.9ppl Midlands & East Wales resulting in a standard liquid litre price of 26.7ppl

0.5ppl Lake District resulting in a standard liquid litre price of 26.98ppl

0.5ppl Haverfordwest resulting in a standard liquid litre price of 27.77ppl, please note this price includes the 0.67ppl Tesco cheese supplement

First Milk’s B prices for August deliveries is 25ppl.

1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers Yew tree Dairy (AKA Woodcocks) - from August 14^th (21^st July 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 29ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.0ppl milk price increase for suppliers Paynes Dairies - from August 1^st (21^st July 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 28.45ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.81ppl milk price increase for Arla members - from August 1^st (21^st July 2017)

This is actually a 1 Euro Cent per kg increase, which equates to 0.81ppl and results in a standard liquid litre price of 28.82ppl and a standard manufacturing litre price of 29.98ppl. Arla’s organic price is a stand on at 42.83ppl.

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Dairy Crest Davidstow - from September 1^st (21^st July 2017)

This 1ppl increase will be a big disappointment to 360 producers who are now firmly well off the pace. The reality is that Dairy Crest and the producer group DCD reached an agreement in April 2017 for 2 further price drops in June and July and then having assessed the market decided to agree to a price hold until 1^st October.

Dairy Crest could have held firm until 1st October and refused any price increase but the lesson for DCD to learn is the difference between a price hold and a price floor. Had DCD agreed that the July reduction would have been the last reduction then further increases would have undoubtedly have flowed because a flaw would not prevent price increases.

The situation leaves DCD and Dairy Crest with much head scratching when it comes to negotiating the 1^st October price at the end of August. The increase for 1^st October will have to be significant and if it isn’t agreed our understanding is that deadlock would mean that Dairy Crest producers could leave on 3 months notice and that would be a situation that Mark Allen and his team will not want to take a chance on.

In the latest addition of Dairy Industry Newsletter, Barry Wilson has described Dairy Crest and its price movements as “shameful”, especially given the profits in the cheese business are up 18% to almost £43million for the year to March 2017. Wilson says that operating margins at this level are both the highest in the UK cheese sector and probably in Dairy Crest’s history. For August it seems that Dairy Crest will be at the bottom of the milk price league tables and Wilson goes on to highlight that Mark Allen’s salary for 2016-17 at £1.344million with share options worth £5.2million. Wilson then closes his article with a very hard hitting statement that if he was a Davidstow supplier he would be looking elsewhere if this is how he was being treated.

It remains to be seen how tough DCD are in the next round of negotiations but for sure if Dairy Crest don’t play their cards right they could be in for a bruising.

Arla unanimously vote to move to 12 months notice period (21^st July 2017)

At a meeting this week 94% of Arla representatives voted for UK members to be given a 12 month notice period option with only 6% voting against the resolution.

First Milk price contract changes (21^st July 2017)

First Milk have decided to abandon A and B pricing following the lead of several other milk purchasers.  This decision is one of several  outcomes of a pricing review, which started in March. 

While some farmers will understandably criticise the move on the basis that B pricing now should be very high, it has to be balanced by the fact that First Milk’s B price for July is only  25ppl and off the pace.  The reason for this appears to be that First Milk don’t have any  surplus milk with all their member’s milk required for their core business contracts.  In fact when questioned First Milk claim that they are now buying milk from third parties for short term opportunities  far more often then they are selling surplus. 

The co-op believes that the one price offering will be welcomed by the majority of members, especially now that it is accompanied by a simple 0.5ppl production bonus paid on all litres if the amount produced in one month is equal or greater to the corresponding month 12 months earlier.  This is simply a statement by First Milk that they want to encourage members to deliver more milk.

Another change is that the individual transport/haulage charges have been removed from 1^st September.

First Milk have also stated that during the course of next week the expectation is that they will be announcing another  price rise.

3 new board members at Muller (21^st July 2017)

At Tuesday’s farmer forum meeting there were 8 farmers put forward for 3 positions on the Muller farmer board. Roddy Catto, as chairman and board member, lost his position as did Chris Willis. Grant Hartman was the only one of the 3 candidates to retain his position and he is now joined by John Hocknell and Stephen Foster.

4 other places taking it to a total of 7 are up for election next year. At the next meeting in August the farmer forum will need to elect a chairman, vice chairman and finance officer and the odds on favourite to take the position of chairman must surely be David Herdman who is the current vice chairman of the group and former chairman of DCD

32ppl equivalent milk price for July deliveries paid by Friesland Campina (14^th July 2017)

Having announced a July farm gate price increase of 0.5 Euro Cents per 1kg, www.milkprices.com have calculated that at current exchange rates of 1 Euro = 88.2ppl and converted to our standard liquid litre results in a price paid of 31.858ppl. This represents an increase of 12.1ppl compared to 12 months ago.

Using the same numbers the Friesland Campina organic standard liquid litre price equates to a farm gate price of 42.976ppl.

Arla members are encouraged to discuss the proposal to move to a 12 months notice period (14^th July 2017)

Arla members have been given the minimum required 10 working days notice to consider and express any views on the proposed resolution for the immediate removal of the 3 month notice to leave period to be replaced by a 12 month period as proposed and promoted by the UKAF Board.

Several Arla members have contacted Ian during the week questioning the move with some suggesting that an immediate jump from 3 months to 12 months should have been staged with a 6 month interim notice period. It was the UKAF Board who made the decision to go in one jump.

The main bone of contention appears to be the minimum short 10 working day notice period, which for some, is leading to speculation and suspicion which clearly will be a disappointment to Arla. This is especially the case given the fact that if this is voted through next Thursday (20^th July) the 12 month notice period will take effect immediately.

Some farmers believe the option for a farmer to leave a milk purchaser in 3 months keeps that purchaser sharp and focussed on the real market place. As it stands today all of the main GB milk purchasers who do not comply with the Voluntary Code are on a 12 month notice period as are some of the Code compliant purchasers. Only Muller, Dairy Crest and Parkham Farms currently operate a 3 month notice period on a price change.

Notices for Arla farmers in Denmark and Sweden vary from 4 months to 16 months depending on when the farmer submits his notice. Note, Arla’s plan is to standardise notice periods across all countries during the next 2 years.

One thing is clear, in the event a number of Arla farmers were to leave having given only 3 months notice it potentially results in the remaining members having to plug any hole with the business often having to acquire expensive spot milk, which ultimately reflects on the milk price paid to the remaining members.

Arla farmers are urged to raise any concerns and discuss the implications of the resolution with their local area representative at the earliest opportunity and ahead of Thursday’s vote.

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheese) - from 1st August (7^th July 2017)

This takes producers’ standard manufacturing litre to 29ppl and the liquid standard litre to 28.25ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Helers Cheese - from 1st August (7^th July 2017)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Meadow Foods - from 1st August (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (7^th July 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre to 28.15ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.328ppl Muller retail price supplement to be paid on June deliveries (7^th July 2017)

NFU accuse Arla CEO of scaremongering (7^th July 2017)

Peder Tuborgh, CEO of Arla has hit the news today with his comments that "butter and cream will be very short at Christmas time" and "Buy your butter now".

Tuborgh was interviewed live by BBC Business Live and Radio 5 Live where he pointed to a reduction in milk production coupled with the move from spreads back to real butter following confirmation from scientists that eating butter is not responsible for clogging up arteries. Suddenly butter is popular.

Only last week in this bulletin Ian commented "retail butter prices have not responded to hit consumers pockets yet".

One year ago a 250 gram pack of butter cost £1.35 now it's £1.49 but it must surely be set to head towards £2 or more soon.

A powerful, but perhaps realistic, warning from the head of one of the world’s dairy giants.

The big surprise was the revelation that one or more of the interviewers was told by the NFU that Arla were scaremongering in relation to suggestions that butter and cream will be short.

According to current wholesale market prices butter and cream are ALREADY short and very soon retailers will have to pass on increases to consumers.

For the NFU to comment like this smacks of an industry where its left hand doesn’t know what its right hand is doing, achieved nothing and looks to be a case of negatively counteracting Arla's message just for the sake of it.

The division comes at a critical time when the industry needs to be joined in its thinking, especially with the Brexit negotiations.

1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Grahams Dairies (Scotland) – from 1^st August (6^th July 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 27.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1.5ppl milk price increase for Muller suppliers – from August 1^st (30^th June 2017)

The resulting liquid standard litre price is 27.69ppl.

Note, the current 0.3ppl June and July forecast retailer supplement will reduce and could potentially disappear which will mean a reduction in Muller’s farm gate milk price.

1ppl milk price increase for Arla directs – from 1^st July (30^th June 2017)

This takes the liquid standard litre milk price up to 26.0ppl and the manufacturing standard litre price to 27.04ppl (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Glanbia Cheese – from August 1^st (30^th June 2017)

This results in a standard manufacturing litre milk price of 29ppl and a 0.96ppl liquid equivalent price rise resulting in a standard liquid litre milk price of 28.03ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.75ppl unconfirmed price increase for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries Limited – from August 1^st (30^th June 2017)

The price increase is strongly rumoured but no one from SCC was available to confirm it as correct. If it is confirmed it will result in a 29.28ppl standard manufacturing litre milk price.

0.21ppl milk price increase for Tesco (TSDG) Muller and Arla suppliers – from August 1^st (30^th June 2017)

This results in a standard liquid litre price of 29.58ppl. The increase follows a quarterly review of the cost tracker.

As markets are the liquid standard litre milk prices for both Arla and Muller non aligned should comfortably overtake the TSDG price during this quarter.

First Milk B price +1ppl but stand on for July A price (30^th June 2017)

First Milk’s member B price will increase by 1ppl to 25ppl from July 1^st whereas the A price will be stand on until 1^st August.

29.5ppl net milk price for March to June 2018! (30^th June 2017)

www.milkprices.com UK Milk Futures Equivalent (UKMFE) forward curve is indicating what they describe as “the opportunity” to lock into a net farm gate milk price of around 29.5ppl for the March to June 2018 period.  This must surely mean much head-scratching by farmers as to whether they commit a percentage of their milk at these prices to hedge their bets.

In a similar tone the current average UKMFE net price to producers stands at at 29.34ppl allowing for costs, margin and level of risk. (www.milkprices.com)

But who’s pickpocketing the money? (30^th June 2017)

NFU Scotland have issued a news release titled “Dairy Farmer Patience Wearing Thin” pointing to the fact market indicators are meteoric yet farm gate prices have failed to respond and that “the arithmetic does not add up”. 

As one industry analyst commented to Ian this morning some liquid milk purchasers need to up their game if they want to retain their milk pool and at current July and August 1^st farm gate prices its’ likely some farmers will vote with their feet and tender resignations.

AHDB Dairy butter prices are at record levels averaging £5,100 tonne (June) and hitting £5400 to £5500 tonne.  In addition, AMPE at 36.4ppl and MCVE standing at 36.9ppl are both close to doubling in value in only 12 months.

Questions are being asked as to whether current butter prices are sustainable and the answer appears to be it’s doubtful, especially given the fact retail butter prices have not responded to hit consumers pockets yet. 

The AMPE price of 36.4ppl for June should have Barbers suppliers smiling because the Barbers above base milk volume price is set at AMPE minus 2ppl = 34.4ppl, with their standard milk price remaining the top milk for cheese price in the UK (www.milkprices.com).  Let’s play Top Trumps and see who can beat that?

A big thank you to all who sponsored Ian & Carole in their classic Mini Cooper S trip to Holland in March (30^th June 2017)

Thanks to the generous sponsorship of readers of this bulletin Ian and Carole raised £3630 in aid of Orchid (fighting male cancer) and Against Breast Cancer.

In fact, they also collected the prize for raising the most money so a big thank you to all of you who generously supported the tow charities.

The total raised by the Regis Ladies Classic Group in their 20 years of annual tours is a staggering £565,000

1.65ppl (2 Euro Cents) milk price increase for Arla members – from 1^st July (23^rd June 2017)

The increase was inevitable given the seismic movements in the fat markets, which are now driving prices north with spot prices having hit 36ppl. Other milk processors are expected to follow with “useful and meaningful” price increases next week from July 1^st and those announced for August 1^st will need to be greater if they intend to be fair to farmer suppliers.

The nett Arla price increase is actually 1.44ppl allowing for the currency smoothing and re-balancing of Arla’s cash flow following the milk price support given in May and June when the UK Arla farmers board agreed to fast forward future currency smoothing benefits due from 1^st July.

The resulting liquid standard litre price is 28.03ppl with manufacturing 29.17ppl and the organic manufacturing standard litre price increases to 42.83ppl and the organic liquid standard litre price to 39.78ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

GDT down 0.8% (23^rd June 2017)

It’s the first auction decrease for three months with the average price recorded $3434.

Notable movers:

Cheddar down 3.8% to average US$4121 tonne

WMP down 3.3% to average US$3022 tonne

SMP up 1.4% to average US$2218 tonne

Butter up 2.9% to average US$5768 tonne

Dairy UK Beyond Brexit Seminar and comments from EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan (23^rd June 2017)

Wednesday’s gathering of the great and the good of the UK dairy industry certainly confirmed that Dairy UK is pulling all the stops out to ensure the UK dairy industry, at both processor and farmer level, is recognised as a key priority in the Brexit negotiations.

Commissioner Phil Hogan spoke in the evening and gave very positive signs that he wanted to work with the UK dairy industry to ensure a soft Brexit. Yes, the cynical will likely comment that Hogan will want a soft landing given his Irish roots but he had the perfect opportunity to deliver a hard hitting warning to the UK dairy industry and he chose to deliver the opposite message of wanting to work together.

Chairman of Dairy UK, David Dobbin, was very clear that trading with the EU without tariffs and barriers must continue and that now is the time for the industry to “hammer home the significance of dairy”.

Dobbin went on to highlight that the UK food and drink industry is bigger than the car and aerospace industry combined with 73,000 UK families depending on the 14 billion litres of milk output from dairy farmers.

The thinking and the messages from Dairy UK were very clear, let’s hope their efforts yield results and we don’t end up on the cliff edge in the spring of 2019. At least we now know we have a dairy organisation fighting our corner.

Yew Tree concludes its first 2 year fixed price contract (16^th June 2017)

This is certainly the UK’s first 2 year forward contracted farm gate milk price which, like Yew Tree’s other volatility smoothing initiatives, has had a good update. It has been taken up by a number of Yew Tree Dairies ingredients farmers and backed off with the physical delivery and contracts with customers, so zero exposure.

The contracts will run until July 2019, so covering two more spring flushes, and at farm level delivers is 29.028ppl less 1.7ppl haulage to nett 27.328ppl.

Yew Tree producers have contracted to supply between 5% and up to 60% of their output and this price certainly top trumps the average all prices figure for the last 2 years (24.67ppl) and 3 years (26.66ppl) (www.milkprices.com)

Production and Markets – Update (16^th June 2017)

According to Datum GB milk deliveries for week ending 3^rd June 2017 were 1.5% below those in the corresponding week a year earlier.

Worldwide there is no increase in milk production which is running more or less in parallel with that recorded in 2016.

Commodity wise all prices continue to head North with the rise in butter prices has been described as “meteoric!” All eyes will be on next week’s GDT auction with the expectation that once again all prices will increase. This market is simply a commodity and fat market driven.

Vegan groups turn sour as European Court says not to Soya Milk and others (16^th June 2017)

The European Court of Justice has declared that products advertised as milk, butter, cream, cheese and yoghurt cannot be named as such if they are purely plant based.

This means in order to use these words in advertising and marketing any milk/dairy product must be derived from animals. The court’s decision follows a German case.

It’s a bitter blow for the European Vegetarian Union and The Vegan Society and their mates, who when asked to comment were all keen to put their own spin on the decision rather than keep their heads down and lick their wounds.

0.5ppl milk price increase for members of South Caernarfon Creameries (SCC) co-operative – from 1^st July (5^th June 2017)

At a time when most, if not all, milk purchasers are at best holding prices with most reducing Wales oldest dairy co-operative, SCC, is bucking the trend and not following the pack with this 1^st July increase.

Alan Wyn Jones, MD of SCC, commented to Ian:

“Cheese by-product returns on cream and whey have continued to strengthen and the outlook on these returns remains extremely positive. On the back of these improved returns its only right we pass this onto our farmer members”

The SCC business has made significant investment in recent years and is one of the few milk purchasers in a position to attract and recruit new suppliers/members.

The increase takes producers manufacturing standard litre upto 28.53ppl and their liquid standard litre price to 27.57ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.35ppl and 0.28ppl milk price reductions for members of First Milk – from 1^st June (5^th June 2017)

Details as follows (www.milkprices.com):

0.35ppl Midlands & East Wales (liquid standard litre price of 25.80ppl)

0.35ppl Scottish mainland (liquid standard litre price of 25.49ppl)

0.28ppl Lake District (liquid standard litre 26.48ppl and manufacturing 27.43ppl)

0.28ppl Haverfordwest (liquid standard litre 27.25ppl and manufacturing 28.20ppl)

The First Milk B price for May is 23ppl, June expected to be 24-25ppl and prediction for July 25ppl plus.

The reason given for these price cuts is as a consequence of other milk purchasers reducing their prices, which has adversely impacted on First Milk’s customer pricing mechanism.

Markets continue to head North (5^th June 2017)

Throughout May dairy markets for butter, cream and AMF have been aggressively heading up and this has continued into June and are now at their highest levels for more than 5 years.

Current spot milk prices are now at 30ppl and in Holland and Italy are 31.5ppl (note this is with 4.4% b/f)

www.milkprices.com’s UK Milk Futures Equivalent increased by an eye-watering 8ppl in May to 35.39ppl for September 2017 delivery. (Note, approximately 3 to 4ppl needs to be deducted to give a realistic farm gate milk price equivalent.)

AHDB Dairy report butter starting in early May at £3750 tonne and ending at £4800. Cream started at £1700 and reaching £2200 tonne

Open Farm Sunday – This week 11^th June (5^th June 2017)

LEAF has 350 UK farms signed up for this week’s Open Farm Sunday in this, it’s 11^th year.

As LEAF correctly state it’s a fantastic opportunity for young and old to discover first hand what it means to be a farmer.

Arla are the only UK milk processor who provide financial support and sponsor the event and more than 60 Arla member farms are opening their gates to the public this Sunday. A great effort and well done to all who make this happen.

South Caernarfon Creameries (SCC) wins the 2017 Dairy Food Provider of the Year Award (5^th June 2017)

The award was voted by members of the public and a real feather in the co-op’s cap.

0.4ppl milk price reduction for Arla members – from 1^st June (26^th May 2017)

This takes producers’ standard litre liquid milk price to 26.65ppl and 27.73pl for the standard litre manufacturing price (www.milkprices.com)

The price cut is obviously unwelcome, especially when it only applies to Arla’s circa 2,500 GB members, however, its GB members did avoid a cut as a result of the accelerated currency smoothing payment, which neutralised a May price cut.

However, the NFU (England & Wales) appear to have Arla in their sights and turning almost a blind eye to making any meaningful comment on the practices and milk price reductions of other milk purchasers, especially County Milk. See last week’s bulletin with 1ppl retrospective producer price cut.

As the biggest milk purchaser Arla should expect to receive adverse press coverage when they drop the price, however, numerous people are questioning why the NFU haven’t done a press release lambasting County Milk’s 1ppl backdated price cut which effectively waves two fingers to the Dairy Industry Voluntary Code of Best Practice and firmly takes the industry back to the dark days, pre the code.

So whilst the NFU claim “farmers are asking what’s going on” reference the Arla 0.4ppl cut Ian can confirm others are asking what’s going on with regards to the NFU applying pressure proportionally, especially when it comes to retrospective price cuts on which it has simply made a passing remark. The NFU could do much better unless it has been silenced!

MCVE & AMPE both comfortably over 30ppl (26^th May 2017)

The AMPE price for May is up 3.3p in one month to 31ppl and the corresponding MCVE price up 1.5p to 33.3ppl.

Fonterra price increase (26^th May 2017)

New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra has increased its 2016/2017 farm gate milk price by 15 cents to $6.15 per kg MS as a result of stronger world dairy commodity prices and is cautiously optimistic for the future.

EU milk out put is rising faster than budgeted (26^th May 2017)

March output is up just under 1% across the EU and the growth is predicted to increase by significantly more than the budgeted forecast increase of 0.6% for the year, especially for the second half of 2017 where anticipated growth now expected to be 2%. This would give a total 2017 increase of around 1%.

Arla’s cheese isn’t made from Monster Milk (26^th May 2017)

Arla has rattled some cages in Trumpland with a racy and controversial advertisement on US TV promoting Arla’s cheese as not being made from cows which are monsters and given added hormones.

The advert depicts a six-eyed monster with razor sharp horns and electrified fur representing a child’s impression of the hormone BST.

BST manufacturer Elanco has initiated legal action against Arla demanding the advert be pulled but as of today it’s still running and gaining more publicity everyday, which must be great news for Arla’s US cheese sales. The jury is out on whether the advert is pulled on the instruction of the authorities.

New look to Belton Cheese branding (26^th May 2017)

Shropshire farm house cheese buyer, Belton, has unveiled a new very distinctive identity under the name of Belton Farm with a strapline “Great British Cheesemakers”

1ppl back dated milk price reduction for County Milk suppliers – from May 1^st (19^th May 2017)

This means County have dropped producer prices by 3ppl in recent months and this latest price drop has come as a very big surprise to producers because for those involved at the sharp end of trading, like County, spot prices are now 26 to 27ppl having risen from around 20ppl in less than 3 weeks.

Despite all the efforts of the NFU’s and others to introduce a code of conduct it’s hardly fair to hear back dated price cuts are still considered fair.

Farmers should certainly be questioning any price drops beyond early May and for those announced for June and even July, for example Dairy Crest’s two stage price reduction, there must be grounds for farmers to insist these to be immediately rescinded to demonstrate fairness and transparency. The alternative is some purchasers risk being tagged as opportunist Robin Hoods, especially for July and/or back dated cuts.

It’s a certainty some milk purchasers have made the wrong call with recent milk price drops and should be challenged.

Cream income is stratospheric and according to AHDB Dairy is worth 10.15ppl compared to only 4.62ppl 1 year ago an increase of 120% and cheese prices are rocketing north this week. Come on don’t push through price cuts just because you can.

0.5ppl milk price drop for Grahams Dairies supplies – from June 1^st (19^th May 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 26.25ppl (www.milkprices.com)

GDT auction results (19^th May 2017)

This weeks’ GDT auction produced a 3.2% all products average index increase, which is the 5^th consecutive increase. Out of the 8 commodities on offer 7 out of 8 recorded price increases and the average index is now the highest it’s been for 3 years.

Key movers (19^th May 2017)

Butter +11.2% to average US$5479

WMP +1.3% to average US$3312

SMP +1.0% to average US$1998

Average +3.2% to average US$3313

UK product goes into Intervention (19^th May 2017)

According to AHDB dairy UK produced SMP has gone into the EU’s Intervention store for the first time in 12 months during the first week of May with 1,132 tonnes taking total EU stocks to an eye-watering 356,000 tonnes! Do not let anyone try to tell you that SMP prices are why price cuts are needed because cream values are eclipsing that red herring.

The liquid milk merry-go-round kicks in as Morrisons do some shuffling (19^th May 2017)

Morrisons have moved to sole supplier for all their own brand liquid milk, estimated to be around 400 million litres to Arla from March 2018 for three years until 2021.

Arla already had an estimated 260 million litres and the 140 million litres which they gain from next March is at the expense of Muller and is in effect the 140 million litres Muller acquired as part of the take over of Dairy Crest’s liquid division.

Whilst Morrisons are unlikely to go to a segregated pool they are moving towards what some would call a nominated pool with specific farmers nominated with whom Morrisons will presumably want to engage in return for which additional funds will be paid to the retailer.

The loss of such a large quantity will be a blow to Muller as it would be to any processor.

More rides on the merry-go-round are still on the cards with next up the outcome of the Lidl re-shuffle followed by the big Aldi tender and in summer by the co-op group (CTRG). Nett milk movements during the 12 months ending April 2018 will undoubtedly leave some milk buyers smiling and some crying over the spilt milk.

Dairy Crest’s year end results (19^th May 2017)

Dairy Crest’s results show adjusted profit was up 5% to over £60 million (57.7m in 2015/2016) with net debt up by 9% to £249.8m.

The dividend paid to shareholders up 2% to 16.3p.

Dairy Crest shares were trading at £5.80 a fall from the £6.16 briefly recorded on Wednesday.

Ulster Farmer’s Union retaliates against Go Vegan World’s anti-dairy campaign (19^th May 2017)

UFU President Barclay Bell has no issues with the less than 1% of the population who for whatever reason have decided to go vegan, however, their organisations anti-dairy campaign targeting dairy farming systems is “one-sided and unfair”, which the President has criticised on behalf of the 99% plus of the population who enjoy eggs, meat and dairy products.

Meanwhile, in the US, an industry campaign called Undeniably Dairy has been launched to better engage with consumers with clear transparent messaging about dairy products which has and is currently twisted, distorted and misrepresented!

The campaign realises that consumers are being spoon fed what is predominantly conflicting inaccurate information often by anti-dairy groups. The same could be said in the UK, especially when it comes to facts on TB in cattle and badgers.

Fake invoices and forgery once again in the Midlands (19^th May 2017)

It’s by no means the first time middle ground family wholesaler J N Dairies has been the subject of unlawful activities (2008) lies and propaganda (2014) and its returned to their doorstep again.

No fair and honest dairy competition in the Wolverhampton and Birmingham area that’s too simple and now it’s the return of doctored documents painting “an untruthful image of your honest and ethical supplier.” When will these clowns learn this is not how the dairy industry operates in the UK?

Back in 2011 Johal Dairies and J N Dairies were locked in a multi-million pound expensive high court battle involving the theft of confidential information belonging to J N Dairies in 2008 and an alleged bribe of £40,000 plus.

The end result was that the court ordered Johal Dairies to pay J N Dairies almost £1.3 million in relation to legal costs, damages and interest on top of which they had their own costs.

Arla opens new Danish innovation centre (19^th May 2017)

As part of its aim to ensure a minimum of 10% of Arla UK’s net revenue is derived from new products Arla has officially opened its new innovation centre in Aarhus, Denmark.

The site employs 150 people some of whom will, with respect, resemble Umpa Lumpa’s working on up to 50 new ideas at any one time.

Arla in winning ways (19^th May 2017)

Arla have received international recognition having been listed under two ingredients categories in the 2017 Ingredient of the Year Nutra Ingredients Awards in Geneva, winning one category and runner up in another.

0.5ppl milk price reduction for Muller non-aligned suppliers – from 9^th June (12^th May 2017)

This reduces producers’ standard liquid litre to 26.19ppl (www.milkprices.com) excluding the retailer supplement (see below)

0.276ppl April retailer supplement for Muller non-aligned suppliers (12^th May 2017)

This will be paid to Muller’s non-aligned suppliers in addition to the standard price.

The consensus is that dairy markets have turned the corner (12^th May 2017)

Virtually all analysts are convinced that the bottom of the market was reached in April and that the UK farm gate milk price outlook for the remainder of 2017 is cautiously optimistic.

GDT auction futures and forward contract prices having stabilised are now showing signs of steadily improving for most dairy commodities. This is encouraging news in spring and bodes well for the rest of 2017.

The FC Stone/milkprices.com UK milk futures (UK MFE) price for April of 27.36ppl they believe will be the lowest for “the foreseeable future” and May has already seen the UK MFE average butter price increase by €150/tonne and SMP up a more modest €10/tonne.

The 350,000 plus tonnes of aged SMP Intervention stocks will one day be a problem. If, or rather when, the Commission accept tenders to release stock it will dampen farm gate milk price recovery. Fortunately in 2017 limited additional SMP is going into Intervention amounting to under 1,000 tonnes a week placed in store during April compared to 15,000+ tonnes/week average in April 2016.

In a press release NFU Scotland have called for stability in Scottish farmers farm gate milk prices. The press release points to a realistic farm gate milk price of 27.5ppl depending on the milks end use based on the fact that AMPE is at 27.7ppl and MCVE is at 31.8ppl. All signs are pointing north.

Dairy Industry Newsletter 20^th Annual Conference – Next Wednesday (12^th May 2017)

The Conference theme is “Riding the Dairy Market Roller Coaster Trump, Brexit and many now uncertainties”. Ian will be attendance to hear first hand what an impressive line up of speakers has to say.

2ppl milk price cut for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers (5^th May 2017)

Split over two months with a 1ppl reduction from 1^st June and another 1ppl from 1^st July. Accompanying the announcement was a pledge to hold the new July price for August and September.

First Milk May 1^st price reductions (5^th May 2017)

Details are as follows:

0.1ppl Midlands & East Wales (liquid standard litre price of 26.15ppl)

0.25ppl Scottish mainland (liquid standard litre price of 25.84ppl)

0.35ppl Lake District (liquid standard litre 26.76ppl and manufacturing 27.72ppl)

0.35ppl Haverfordwest

The 0.35ppl Haverfordwest liquid standard litre price will be 25.88ppl excluding the additional Tesco cheese payment, which is expected to result in a standard litre price of 27.53ppl and a manufacturing standard litre price of 28.5ppl.

Muller sign up all 1900 suppliers bar 6! (5^th May 2017)

In what can only be described as a remarkable 2^nd round PR result Muller have confirmed to Ian that only 6 farmers have not signed the new Muller contract. Out of these only 2 are what Ian describes as “The Awkward Squad” with the other four either retiring or moving away from the Muller family.

So following on from Ian’s current Dairy Farmer article the two Awkward Squad farmers are the ones with a big call and a potential problem unless they have decided their future is in not supplying Muller and they already have alternative options.

Consequently there is unlikely to be any need for differential pricing for just two farmers on the old contract and www.milkprices.com will presumably ignore and no longer refer to either of the old Muller contracts. So far as Muller is concerned it’s a housekeeping job completed.

Dairy Tech has 100 plus exhibitors already (5^th May 2017)

RABDF’s new flagship Dairy Tech event on 7^th February 2018 at Stoneleigh Park already has over 100 committed exhibitors – www.rabdf.co.uk

Scottish NFU’s Vice President calls for naming and shaming of BVD farmers who fail to take action (5^th May 2017)

It’s a bold and brave move but Gary Mitchell who is a dairy farmer and NFU Scotland Vice President has put forward the suggestion that farmers who fail to eliminate cattle persistently infected with BVD should be publically named and shamed.

According to Gary and NFU Scotland there are 382 known BVD PI animals on Scottish farms and 140 farms have two or more PI’s and one even has a staggering 24 PI animals on farm!

Gary is suggesting that if these farmers are unwilling to remove all infected animals their details should be published and Ian would support this with publication in this bulletin on a weekly basis if data protection permits it. See below for very competitive BVD tags from Potters.

No reduction in EU SMP stocks in 8^th tender (28^th April 2017)

Once again no SMP sold in the recent tender and stocks are indeed steadily rising and currently stand at 353,680 tonnes. Current market prices for SMP are precariously close to intervention levels.

Friesland Campina stand on for 3^rd time (28^th April 2017)

Arla’s biggest European competitor, Friesland Campina, has held its producer milk price for the 3^rd consecutive month at an equivalent 29.24ppl based on the milkprices.com standard liquid litre price (4% butterfat & 3.3% protein). Note, the rise in the value of sterling has wiped 1ppl of this price which would have been 30.25ppl were it not for currency movement.

1 Euro Cent (0.76ppl) milk price reduction for Arla members is neutralized for Arla GB members (25^th April 2017)

From next Monday May 1^st Arla has announced a further 1 Euro Cent milk price reduction but this has been neutralised in cash flow terms due to a decision by the UK Arla farmers board to bring forward future currency smoothing benefits due to members July onwards.  The nett effect is to cancel out the price cut at a time when cash flow is already tight due to peak seasonality deductions and is a welcome move by the UK farmer representatives and fingers crossed for the next Arla price move to be stand on or up.

2 Euro Cent (1.52ppl) milk price reduction for Arla Organic members is halved (25^th April 2017)

The accelerated benefit of July currency smoothing has also been applied to the organic price reduction of 2 Euro Cents, which means the net cash flow reduction will be 1 euro cent (0.76ppl) instead of 1.52ppl for a standard liquid litre and on a standard manufacturing litre the 1 euro cent reduction converts to 0.79ppl as instead of 1.58ppl both apply from May 1^st.

In a statement Arla commented that whilst the organic dairy market is reasonably stable this adjustment has been necessary in order to reflect current market returns.

0.296ppl addition for Muller non-aligned March deliveries retail supplement (14^th April 2017)

Muller’s non-aligned suppliers will receive an additional 0.296ppl on all milk delivered in March

No takers at latest Dutch Dairy Commodity auction (14^th April 2017)

According to a report in DIN, the Dutch based dairy auction’s online recorded no sales for a second 2017 auction for a total of 451 tonnes on offer. The minimum price set for SMP was £1680 tonne.

Meanwhile, SMP prices continue to fall with prices, according to AHDB Dairy, trading at €1790 tonne just €92 above Intervention levels. More SMP has gone into Intervention from Poland, Germany and Lithuania with an additional 1200 tonnes going into already record quantities in store.

Arla confirms a 12 million Euro investment in baby powder (14^th April 2017)

Arla has confirmed plans to invest 12 million Euros to produce infant milk formula at its AKAFA site in the north of Denmark. The facility is planned to be operational by August 2018 and interestingly with technology will only create an additional 2 or possibly 4 jobs.

0.32ppl milk price increase for suppliers aligned to the co-op Dairy (Muller) – From 1^st May (7^th April 2017)

This increase is for the next quarter May to July inclusive and takes producers standard liquid price to 27.9ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

Crediton Dairy stands on with its suppliers ex-farm gate milk price – until the 1st June which maintains the current standard liquid litre price at 28.5ppl. (7^th April 2017) (www.milkprices.com)

Crediton’s B litre milk price will change from May 1^st to AMPE minus 2ppl as opposed to the current AMPE minus 1ppl.

1.25ppl milk price cut for Barbers suppliers – From 1^st May (7^th April 2017)

This takes producer’s standard manufacturing/cheese litre price to 29.05ppl and 28.85ppl for a standard liquid litre (www.milkprices.com)

0.75ppl milk price cut for Pensworth suppliers (7^th April 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 26.5ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

0.4ppl milk price cut for Meadow Foods suppliers – From 1^st May (7^th April 2017)

The reduction results in a standard liquid litre price of 27.15ppl and a standard manufacturing (cheese) litre price of 27.53ppl.

Freshways milk price cut is unknown but will be capped at a maximum 0.39ppl for May suppliers (7^th April 2017)

Freshways wrote to its producers on the 31^st March informing them of a May price cut claiming that all 5 companies which make up the Freshways current basket have reduced their price.

Ian has requested Freshways clarify which Companies have reduced the basket price because as at the date of the letters Ian believes a maximum of 2 out 5 have reduced their farmgate milk price (Arla and Paynes). Indeed the attachment with the letter appears to confirm this. The price cut will not exceed 0.396ppl.

GDT Auction average up 1.6% (7^th April 2017)

Noteable movers were:

WMP up 2.4% to average US $2924 tonne

SMP down 0.8% to average US $1913 tonne

Butter down 1.8% to average US$4751 tonne

Cheddar down 4.4% to average $3288

More SMP goes into Intervention (7^th April 2017)

It’s not encouraging news to hear that 472 tonnes of SMP from Poland has already gone into intervention stores.

Southern Irelands February milk production was down 7.8% (7^th April 2017)

Southern Irelands February production was down 22.3 million litres (-7.8%).

Award for the most money raised for UK Cancer Charities (7^th April 2017)

Ian & Carole scooped the award for being the team (English Bulldogs on Tour) which raised the most money for the two Cancer charities in last weekend’s final Regis Classic car Tour to Holland.

So a huge Thankyou to the 62 readers who donated. Note a very significant proportion of the money Ian and Carole raised was directed by readers to fighting Male Cancer.

Below is a photograph of Ian & Carole receiving their Awards with organiser Ali Green who has been key to the annual event for 20 years. Please note Ali isn’t as squashed and sandwiched between Ian and Carole as the picture perhaps indicates! Also attached is a great photograph of the duo in action in their 1963 Mini Cooper S running along the canal between traditional Dutch windmills.

Ian will confirm how much they raised when the giving page closes but as at todays date it amounts to £2,575 plus £314 Gift Aid. Total £2,889 with more money received by cheque than on line.

Ian & Carole’s giving page will remain open for any last minute bulletin reader donations.

If you haven’t sponsored then please give a little now by donating on line by clicking on: http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/fundraiser/showFundraiserProfilePage.action?userUrl=EnglishMiniBulldogsOnTour&isTeam=true

OR

Send a cheque(s), made payable to either:

“Orchid”  (Fighting male cancer)

Or

“Against Breast Cancer”

Please sponsor Ian & Carole where you can, and don't forget you can increase the amount you donate with Gift Aid (individuals only, not companies).

Also a big thankyou to EDP Photo News UK and Steve Carpenter for taking the photographs and allowing us to reproduce them.

0.62ppl milk price increase for Tesco (TSDG) suppliers – from May 1^st (31^st March 2017)

This increase will apply for the next quarter May to July inclusive. The resulting liquid standard litre price is provisionally expected to be 29.37ppl.

0.33ppl milk price increase for Sainsburys (SDDG) suppliers from 1^st April (31^st March 2017)

This increase will apply for the next quarter of April to June inclusive and takes producers standard liquid litre milk price to 27.67ppl (Muller supplier) and 27.55ppl (Arla supplier) (www.milkprices.com)

1ppl milk price increase for Mullers Organic suppliers – from 1^st May (31^st March 2017)

This takes the organic suppliers standard liquid litre milk price to 40.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Muller stand on for April & May (31^st March 2017)

Muller’s non-aligned milk price is unchanged through the 2017 flush until at least 1^st June at 26.69ppl plus an estimated retail supplement of 0.3ppl will give an estimated paid out milk price of 27ppl.

Dairy Crest stand on for April & May (31^st March 2017)

Dairy Crest’s farm gate milk price is unchanged through the 2017 flush until at least 1^st June at 28.92ppl on the liquid standard litre price and 30ppl on the manufacturing/cheese standard litre price (www.milkprices.com)

Friesland Campina stand on for April (31^st March 2017)

Arla’s biggest European competitor, Friesland Campina, has announced a stand on milk price for April. When this is adjusted to a www.milkprices.com standard liquid litre this converts to 30.251ppl with its comparable standard litre organic price at 40.334ppl.

0.35ppl milk price cut for Paynes suppliers – from 1^st April (31^st March 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre milk price down 27.45ppl (www.milkprices.com)

This bulletin comes from Holland due to the fact Ian & Carole are now in Rotterdam raising money for Breast Cancer and Male Cancer.

If you value this bulletin and you haven’t sponsored then please give a little now by donating on line by clicking on: http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/fundraiser/showFundraiserProfilePage.action?userUrl=EnglishMiniBulldogsOnTour&isTeam=true

OR

Send a cheque(s), made payable to either:

“Orchid”  (Fighting male cancer)

Or

“Against Breast Cancer”

Background - Back in 2015 Ian & Carole travelled to New Zealand and joined the Pork Pie Charity Run (www.porkpie.co.nz) in a classic Mini and raised £6,600 for charity.  This weekend the intrepid duo have taken to the wheel again and have driven Ian’s 1963 Mini Cooper S to Rotterdam for a weekend to raise money in the 20^th and final Regis Ladies Classic Car Tour.

100% of your donations will go to the two charities named below, as Ian & Carole are self funding all their own expenses, entry fees and accommodation.

This final 20^th Regis Classic Tour is supported by a host of companies and individuals who have donated money, prizes, auction items and services to help this group of ladies finish their 20^th annual tour with a bang.  During the past 19 years the tour has raised a staggering £524,000. 

Ian, more than anyone, fully appreciates how difficult the past two years in UK dairy farming have been.  If you can dig deep and find a few spare pounds it will all be very much appreciated.  It’s not a competition who can give the most but if you do value this regular bulletin and Ian’s monthly Dairy Farmer article (now 26 years and still going) then please give a little to show your appreciation.

The event is not a charity challenge, but more of a non-competitive social weekend with like minded classic car enthusiasts aiming to have a spring tour at the same time as raising money for two great charities.  I doubt there is anyone who is reading this bulletin who has not had at least one friend or family member affected by cancer.

So please sponsor Ian & Carole where you can, and don't forget you can increase the amount you donate with Gift Aid (individuals only, not companies).

Please donate on line by clicking on: http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-web/fundraiser/showFundraiserProfilePage.action?userUrl=EnglishMiniBulldogsOnTour&isTeam=true

OR

Send a cheque(s), made payable to either:

“Orchid”  (Fighting male cancer)

Or

“Against Breast Cancer”

Ian’s target was to raise £1000 but already readers generosity has exceeded £2000 by cheque or by online donations.

Thank you all in advance.

1ppl milk price drop for County Milk Products Limited suppliers – from April 1^st (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (24^th March 2017)

This is the second consecutive 1ppl price drop by County according to its farmer suppliers. However, according to one source County are exposed to the ingredients market via Yew Tree Dairy, which has certainly crashed back, especially given the fact the SMP price is now close to Intervention level. The likelihood of spring milk going into intervention stores to add to the existing 350,000 tonnes of old stock is now almost inevitable for April.

County were unavailable to confirm what their 1^st April standard liquid litre price would be following the 2ppl reduction, which we will endeavour to report next week.

0.79ppl (1 Euro Cent) milk price drop bombshell from Arla – 1^st April (24^th March 2017)

Around 2,700 Arla members/ owners  have been notified that from April 1^st their milk price will reduce by 1 Euro Cent equal to 0.79ppl.  The reduction will not apply to Arla’s UK organic suppliers although Arla’s mainland Europe organic suppliers will feel the full force of the reduction.

Of some comfort is the fact the currency smoothing mechanism will provide a 0.37ppl increase resulting in a net reduction of 0.42ppl.  The reduction reduces the 1^st April standard liquid litre price, including the currency smoothing adjustment, to 27.03ppl and for the standard manufacturing litre to 28.13ppl.

It’s a big blow to Arla members and regrettably if Arla sneeze others will catch a cold.  Pretty much everyone in the industry had expected (or prayed) for a stand on price for April and May, which with the filtering through of the currency smoothing would have seen farm gate milk price increases.  This cut will hurt.

There are strong rumours that a similar reduction is already in the pipeline for May 1^st coupled with the belief that Arla have overpaid producers for milk, especially the recent 13^th payment. If another cut happens on May 1^st Arla will struggle to deal with their farmer communications to justify a second cut.

The Arla cut could easily kick start a trend which others seize if it does it will be the final straw for a number of dairy farmers who haven’t even begun to recover from the last slump in prices.

Meanwhile, the Arla brands have been named as recording the largest growth out of the top 100 UK grocery brands achieving growth of £37m in 2016.

Arla members are already questioning whether achieving such headline grabbing brand growth is actually delivering a better milk price to the farmer owners given that in cheese some of its competitors are now paying 30ppl for milk, which is going into branded cheese.

GDT average up 1.7% (24^th March 2017)

The most notable price was the dramatic drop in SMP of 10.1%, which followed a 15.5% drop only 2 weeks ago.

The GDT average price for SMP has crashed by an eye watering 24% in just one month.

Key movers were:

WMP +2.9% to average US$1948/tonne

Cheddar +1% to average US$3406/tonne

SMP -10.1% to average US$1948/tonne

0.79ppl (1 Euro Cent) milk price drop bombshell from Arla – 1^st April (23^rd March 2017)

Around 2,700 Arla members/ owners  have been notified that from April 1^st their milk price will reduce by 1 Euro Cent equal to 0.79ppl.  The reduction will not apply to Arla’s UK organic suppliers although Arla’s mainland Europe organic suppliers will feel the full force of the reduction.

Of some comfort is the fact the currency smoothing mechanism will provide a 0.37ppl increase resulting in a net reduction of 0.42ppl.  The reduction reduces the 1^st April standard liquid litre price, including the currency smoothing adjustment, to 27.03ppl and for the standard manufacturing litre to 28.13ppl.

It’s a big blow to Arla members and regrettably if Arla sneeze others will catch a cold.  Pretty much everyone in the industry had expected (or prayed) for a stand on price for April and May, which with the filtering through of the currency smoothing would have seen farm gate milk price increases.  This cut will hurt.

There are strong rumours that a similar reduction is already in the pipeline for May 1^st coupled with the belief that Arla have overpaid producers for milk, especially the recent 13^th payment. If another cut happens on May 1^st Arla will struggle to deal with their farmer communications to justify a second cut.

The Arla cut could easily kick start a trend which others seize if it does it will be the final straw for a number of dairy farmers who haven’t even begun to recover from the last slump in prices.

Meanwhile, the Arla brands have been named as recording the largest growth out of the top 100 UK grocery brands achieving growth of £37m in 2016.

Arla members are already questioning whether achieving such headline grabbing brand growth is actually delivering a better milk price to the farmer owners given that in cheese some of its competitors are now paying 30ppl for milk, which is going into branded cheese.

SMP Intervention tenders halved as interest plummets (17^th March 2017)

The latest EU Commission SMP intervention stock tender resulted in just two bids for only 136 tonnes compared to bids for almost 20,000 tonnes in December.

The current two tender windows each month will be reduced to one and there seems minimal prospect of any product coming out of store unless the EU Commission significantly reduce their minimum price.

First Milk add to their trophy cabinet (17^th March 2017)

Last night First Milk won Nestle UK’s Supplier of the Year Award as well as a Nestle Quality Award, both collected by Mike Gallacher. Both are viewed as further ringing endorsements that the co-op and its members are on the right track with its major customer.

50 Muller suppliers to battle it out for 21 forum places (17^th March 2017)

Healthy competition is the order of the day in some of the Muller farmer forum regions with 50 candidates competing for 21 places. Ballot packs will be sent to members next week with the elected board to be insitu next month when their task will be to represent 1900 Muller suppliers. Let’s hope the 21 selected have ability to represent their area and it’s not noisy ones with confidence but little ability.

TWO DAIRY CEO’s STEP DOWN WITHIN DAYS OF EACH OTHER (15^th March 2017)

1. Mike Gallacher steps down as First Milk’s CEO – Turnaround Job Done (15^th March 2017)

Mike Gallacher is to step down as First Milk’s CEO and turnaround guru in April and into his shoes will step Shelagh Hancock.

It’s a near as damn it 2 years to the day since Gallacher was parachuted into First Milk and at the time the co-op was on life support and at best only weeks away from the life support machine being turned off.  It wasn’t quite as bad as DFOB but it was looking like a sick dog which needed putting out of its misery.  The dairy industry’s vultures were circling all eager to pick over the carcase but none wanted to be first to swoop in.  It was a badly run business and the one thing the First Milk board did get right was to re-shape, re-group and give Gallacher a free hand.

As Gallacher leaves, he hands over a very different business and whilst it will still have to operate profitably in a challenging environment it’s a fact today there are other UK dairy businesses in worse shape than First Milk.

It’s unusual to see dairy CEO’s involved in a smooth planned succession but this is one such case.  Normally it’s a sacking dressed up with lots of spin. 

Gallacher’s successor, Shelagh Hancock, has 25 years of experience having been involved with the First Milk business for almost 12 months.  She has previously worked for Glanbia, been a key figure in Milk Link until the Arla takeover and latterly Medina Dairies.

Shelagh is essentially a co-op person and will steer First Milk on the same course Gallacher has set with little, if any, need for a change in direction.  There is already at least one new opportunity on her desk for her to explore and plenty of stuff to keep her occupied.

It’s almost 2 years to the day since Gallacher took charge and he certainly can claim to have turned around the First Milk business much to the relief of its members who have seen their co-op go from life support to being discharged and sent home in less than 2 years.

Next week the two commence on a GB member meeting tour to inform members of the turnaround results, direction of the business, current milk field issues (especially the Tesco field connected to the Haverfordwest factory), farm contract developments/ideas and the opportunity to meet their new CEO.

2. Ronald Kerrs to leave Muller (15^th March 2017)

The departure of Ronald Kerrs as CEO of Muller and the arrival of Uwe Sommer doesn’t appear to have been on the cards for months and part of a smooth succession plan.

Kerrs came to Muller in 2012 initially as Head of Muller UK before taking the position of group CEO in 2015.  He has certainly made his mark so far as the UK dairy industry is concerned having been involved in the Dairy Crest liquid business takeover as well as building a new butter plant at Market Drayton.  On May 1^st Sommer steps into one of the most important dairy roles in Europe having left his role as Head of International Marketing at Lindt Chocolate.

GDT auction price crashes back 6.3% (13^th March 2017)

Tuesday’s GDT auction results were very sobering with an average all products drop of 6.3% (to average $3512 tonne) on top of the 3.2% fall only two weeks ago so heading towards a 10% fall in two weeks.

Key prices were (all in US$ not NZ$)

SMP down 15.5% to average $2118 tonne

WMP down 12.4% to average $2782 tonne

Cheddar down 4.2% to average $3435 tonne

Traders anticipated a further weakening of prices, particularly for WMP and SMP but the double digit drop came as a shock. The auction prices were the lowest recorded for over 5 months and for many New Zealand dairy farmers the price for WMP is now at or below their breakeven COP if the auction price is a good barometer.

Total tonnage traded was up 9% to 22,328 tonnes, which undoubtedly contributed to the dramatic drop, especially given the fact the quantity on offer at the same auction in previous years has declined.

0.74ppl February retail supplement for Muller non-aligned farmers (13^th March 2017)

£3.5m investment programme by Medina (13^th March 2017)

The £3.5m investment programme has already commenced at Medina’s Watsons liquid dairy facility in Hampshire, where 96 farmers supply milk to a factory employing 95 staff plus an additional 25 or so new jobs to be created during the coming 6 months as a result of the upgrade.

First Milk extend its Nestle supply contract (13^th March 2017)

First Milk has confirmed it has concluded an extension of its exclusive Nestle liquid milk contract.

The contract has been in the custody of First Milk for more than 14 years (2003) and not doubt there were numerous resident cuckoos keen to kick First Milk out given half a chance, because they appear to be raiding other nests with feathers flying as Ian writes this piece!

Arla confirm the 13^th payment @ £9000 per GB farmer member (7^th March 2017)

Arla have confirmed that its 2500 GB members will receive a 13^th payment averaging £9000 into their bank accounts this Friday.

Unfortunately, the Arla press release referred to the £31 million distribution as a “windfall” and a “cash bonus” which has certainly prompted an instant response from several Arla members.  As one said, “this choice of words (windfall & cash bonus) suggest that this is money for nothing”. 

The payment is actually a return on farmers’ investment in the co-op and the straight forward facts appear to be as follows:

Average fully paid up Arla member producing 1 million litres has 7.5ppl invested £75000.00

His average 13^th payment paid this Friday £  7300.00

Return almost 10%

Conclusion – This part of the Arla model works in terms of return on the money invested and a benefit of being a member.  That’s the simplified message and let’s hopes that.

We sincerely hope that DEFRA and AHDB ensure last year’s fiasco is not repeated. Last year in early April Ian described the joint effort involving AHDB and DEFRA as irresponsible and misleading when the February average farm gate milk price was published as rocketing up by 2.48ppl.

This was achieved because DEFRA allocated the entire £22million 13^th payment to Arla members to February’s milk price rather than spreading it over the 12 months as Arla do. It was a move which was lambasted by both Ian and the TFA.

0.25ppl milk price increase for Arla directs – from March 1^st (6^th March 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 25ppl (www.milkprices.com)

0.2ppl milk price increase for First Milk’s Midlands & East Wales producers – from March 1^st (6^th March 2017)

This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 26.25ppl (www.milkprices.com)

Average January producer price 27.1ppl – According to AHDB (6^th March 2017)

New cheese plant on the cards for North Wales (6^th March 2017)

Ronald Akkerman (AKA The Flying Dutchman) is back on the UK dairy industries radar this time to design, build and operate a 40 million litre a year capacity state of the art cheese factory in North Wales on behalf of a group of around 20 spring grazing farmers who intend to form a co-operative

The initial plant is expected to be up and running by spring 2018 (?) with plans to expand towards 100 million litres.

The output from the plant will be focussed on domestic consumption rather than exports with all sales through Bradburys  who have an unrivalled 130 years experience in selling cheese.  Further details are anticipated in the near future.

Muller to offer futures contracts (6^th March 2017)

A Muller Ingredients Contract is to be launched to suppliers this summer to its 800 or so non-aligned farmers.

The contract will give farmers the opportunity to lock into a margin on up to a quarter (25%) of their milk production by fixing their milk price based on the ww.milkprices.com/FC Stone published prices/UK Milk Futures Equivalent (UKMFE). 

Volumes available will be limited to the physical quantities Muller can secure back to back contracts with its ingredients customers.  In other words, all Muller’s farmer’s contracts will be backed off with reciprocal contracts with customers.

ASDA launches a free range milk/Pasture Promise branded milk (6^th March 2017)

ASDA is the first of the UK’s big retail giants to launch a branded free range milk with the promise that the milk comes from herds which spend at least 180 days and nights grazing.

ASDA has launched with an initial 70,000 litres week going into more than 100 ASDA stores priced at £1.50 for 2 litres.

RABDF outlines its future focus and industry event (6^th March 2017)

Following the disappointing decision in October last year by Holstein UK when it rejected working with RABDF with a view to holding one national dairy event, RABDF has reviewed and re-grouped and today announced its plans for the future.

There will be no Livestock Event at the NEC on September 6^th 2017. Instead there will be a smaller annual Dairy Technical Event at Stoneleigh Park in February.

There is no disputing that technology is transforming our lives and changing all businesses worldwide, including dairy farming. The RABDF event will focus on new technology with technology themed seminars and speakers from across the world. The event will examine the potential of new technologies and how dairy farmers might take advantage, benefit and profit from the latest developments and innovations. RABDF’s focus is to transfer the latest technological ideas to grass roots dairy farmers with an event in central England.

In addition, RABDF will continue its influencing and lobbying role utilising its links to politicians, policy makers and the trade as well as focussing on encouraging youth into the industry. To this end a youth board will be formed and RABDF’s work with Women in Dairy initiativeand its conference will continue. There is even a rumbling that the once sold out and popular RABDF Farmer Conference might emerge from the ashes in middle England, where there is currently nothing similar available in England or Wales.

Medina declares improved financials for year ending 30^th April 2016 (6^th March 2017)

Revenue £160.9m (£156.8m 2015)

Profit £1.15m (£890,000 loss in 2015)

In addition, Medina will be utilising around 50% of its 100 million litre toll processing facility with Muller once its additional litreage to Iceland starts at the end of this month.

This world isn’t big enough for the both of us – there’s only milk that’s going to win! (6^th March 2017)

The Australian dairy industry has declared war on non-dairy alternatives to milk such as soy, almond, coconut and rice stating they should not be called milk because they do not have anything close to the nutritional health protein or vitamin benefits of animal milks.

They claim its mis-labelling and that these alternatives should be labelled and branded to ensure consumers know exactly what they are putting in their shopping baskets or what’s going into their “almond plant liquid lattes”.

It’s time there was a crack down. Come to think of it what’s all the nonsense about vegetarian sausages, vegetarian burgers and vegetarian rashers of bacon!

Studies show soy milk can destroy your thyroid (6^th March 2017)

Soy milk is recognised as coming almost exclusively from GMO which are high in pesticides and an alarming list of properties leading to claims that you simply should STOP consuming it.

In a recent study it’s claimed “soy milk causes severe health problems, including colon cancer, ulceration, gastrointestinal inflammation etc.”

0.38ppl milk price increase for Arla members – from 1^st March (24^th February 2017)

This takes producers standard liquid litre milk price to 27.45ppl and their standard manufacturing/cheese litre milk price to 28.55ppl. The standard liquid litre price for Arla Tesco farmers is 28.87ppl with the Arla organic standard liquid litre holding at 41.1ppl. (www.milkprices.com)

No joy in GDT auction results (24^th February 2017)

The average all price index at Tuesday’s GDT auction recorded a 3.2% drop compared to the result achieved only two weeks earlier.

Notable movers were:

Cheddar down 5.3% to average US$3590 tonne

SMP down 3.8% to average US$2574 tonne

WMP down 3.7% to average US$3189 tonne

Muller unveils its single supplier milk contract (24^th February 2017)

Around 1900 Muller will soon receive the final version 2 of the processors supply contract and it’s clear that Muller have taken on board producer feedback from last November’s farmer meetings and revised the offering.

There is no doubt one single contract for all its suppliers is the way forward and whilst the new offering will see some farmers win and some lose it is claimed the overall package is cost neutral to the business.

The forecast accuracy tolerance has been increased from 5% to 7.5% prior to any penalty. That relaxation should be welcome news; however, Muller’s intention is for the few farmers who fall outside of the 7.5% threshold to have one to one support from Muller’s Agriculture team to help ensure all 1900 farmers are under the penalty threshold. Surprise milk volumes are certainly not an issue confirmed to Muller.

The butterfat penalty has been reduced from 0.035ppl in version 1 of the contract to 0.025ppl for every 0.01% less than 4% and identical payment of 0.025ppl for every 0.01% above 4%.

The contract notice period is only 3 months following a price change or contract variation compared to the old Dairy Crest 12 month notice period.

If a farmer wants to expand by more than 10% he simply needs to have prior (that means prior to spending any £) early engagement with Muller so both parties know when the extra milk will materialise.

Milk payments into the bank will be around the 18^th of each month and this is a midway point between the current Muller and ex-Dairy Crest payment dates.

Finally, individual farmers can utilise the online modelling software to check how the contract affects their individual production.

The new contract starts on May 1^st with the target sign up date of April 21^st.

Overall Ian has failed to find any trip wires or traps and the likelihood is most producers will sign the new contract if they feel it is fair and they want to join Muller on its ambitious UK journey and are inspired by Muller’s vision. If any Muller farmers believe Ian has overlooked any key points please email him.

Arla hunting for milk but Arla’s CEO claims rising milk supply keeps prices in check (24^th February 2017)

Arla has written to its UK members stating it requires more milk, initially from existing members. The letter has produced a very mixed response from Arla members who have contacted Ian today. In summary, most state they have not even started on the road to recovery following almost 2 years of low milk prices at below COP and have minimal appetite to ramp up production in case prices ease again.

Its certainly a confusing message from Arla with its CEO Pedar Tuborgh stating

"Milk prices are currently at a level that is sustainable for the whole business, including our farmers," he said.

And according to one report he has also stated

“a rising supply of milk on world markets is likely to rein in further gains in prices that have increased nearly 50 percent since a slump last year.”

Its certainly a mixed and confusing message from Arla HQ and Arla UK which members are trying to sieve through.

That’s an individual decision but from Arla’s point of view if they do require extra milk existing members must be offered the chance to fill the gap. Failing that Arla will presumably move to Stage 2 and open the door to new recruits to see what the appetite is.

Arla UK sales and revenue down (24^th February 2017)

Arla’s largest market, the UK, has seen its 2016 calendar year results weigh in with a 12% drop in revenue to £1.86billion (€2.2billion) down from the 2015 numbers of £2.2billion (€2.5billion).

Within the numbers Arla’s UK branded products saw sales volumes rise by an encouraging 7.6% with branded liquid milk growing by 12%.

Morrison’s Milk for Farmers accounted for 15% of sales within its competitors on the shelf and Arla’s yoghurt sales were up 116% more than double but from a standing start in 2015.

Arla Foods as a European co-op saw net profit grow by a healthy 20.7% to €356m.

NFU launches a new contract checking facility (24^th February 2017)

The NFU, in conjunction with its panel of legal firms, has launched a contract checking service for members in the hope they use the facility prior to signing a new contract.

The service comes in three stages:

· A free initial discussion with the NFU’s CallFirst Specialist Advisers’ team, available to all NFU farmer members