Dairy Industry news
and features
For
information on our latest range of livestock tags, please go to our home page
…. http://www.ipaquotas.com/
https://www.forfarmers.co.uk/dairy/dairy/youngstock.aspx
Our Weekly News Bulletin is available by email. To receive it please email info@ipaquotas.co.uk
Note, all standard
litre prices are those quoted by www.milkprices.com
and are based on the following:
The liquid standard
litre 4% bf, 3.3% protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million
litres a year on EODC but before seasonality, monthly profile payments,
balancing, B price additions, capital retentions or annual incentive schemes.
The manufacturing
standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of
4.2%bf and 3.4% protein
Cheese / Manufacturing Price
Movements
New Run Tag Prices
We also supply a full range of all types of Cattle & Sheep
tags at very competitive prices including BVD, EID & Management tags.
|
New Run Combinations |
Retail Price (excl vat) |
|
Large &
Large |
£1.37 |
|
Large &
Button |
£1.09 |
|
Large &
Medium |
£1.35 |
|
Large &
Metal |
£1.09 |
|
Medium
& Medium |
£1.35 |
|
Medium
& Button |
£1.05 |
|
Medium
& Metal |
£1.05 |
|
Large &
EID Secondary |
£2.30 |
Please
contact the office on 01335 320016 or email sales@ipaquotas.co.uk for more information, or visit our
website http://www.ipaquotas.com
Remember this
bulletin continues to be available free of charge and takes Ian & the team
considerable time to produce. The only encouragement to keep producing it is a
combination of enthusiasm, tag sales & enquiries from our readers
GDT
Auction more or less stand on (4th
July 2019)
Tuesday GDT Auction saw prices down by only
0.4% to average US $3302 tonne. Whilst technically this is the fourth
consecutive auction fall, following a 3.8% drop only two weeks ago, it is viewed
as more or less a stand on result.
Notable prices were:
SMP up + 3.2% to
average $2430 tonne
WMP No
Change to average $2969 tonne
Cheddar down -
1.5% to average $3756 tonne
Butter down
- 4.8% to
average $4339 tonne
0.5ppl
milk price reduction for Dale Farm members for May deliveries(4th July 2019)
This takes producers supplying Dale Farm in
Kendall to 27.14ppl based on a standard liquid litre and 26.34ppl for those
supplying Dale Farm in its homeland in Northern Ireland.
0.19ppl
milk price reduction for Mullers Co-Op (CTRG) suppliers from 1st August PRODUCER
NOTIFIED (4th July 2019)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk
price of 29.37ppl
0.07ppl
milk price reduction for Tesco (TSDG) suppliers from 1st August PRODUCER NOTIFIED (4th
July 2019)
The reduction arises as a result of the
quarterly cost tracker review. The 1st August Muller TSDG standard
litre price will be 31.07ppl and for an Arla TSDG producer 30.95ppl.
By comparison www.milkprices.com’s standard liquid
litre milk price for August 2018 was 30.17ppl for a TSDG Muller Supplier.
Arla
to stand on with its July milk price for a 6th consecutive month (4th July 2019)
This is indeed a significant achievement by
Arla who have managed the 2019 spring flush at a constant 30.22ppl based on a
standard manufacturing litre and 29.05ppl for a standard liquid litre.
For Arla Organic suppliers the standard litre
price remains at 41.97ppl (manufacturing) and 40.33ppl (liquid).
Note there has been a tiny 0.01ppl currency
smoothing adjustment to all Arlas ppl prices.
Saputo
Dairy UK (AKA Dairy Crest Davidstow) stand on August milk price for a 6th
consecutive month (4th July
2019)
This is a notable achievement by the cheese
processor and DCD which means producers August standard litre milk price of
29.90ppl (manufacturing) and 28.82ppl (liquid) continues for a 6th
consecutive month.
Barbers
(cheese) stand on August milk price (4th
July 2019)
This means continuation of the standard manufacturing
litre price of 28.56ppl and based on a liquid standard litre 27.75ppl.
Meadow
Foods Bombshell notice to find another Milk Buyer (4th July 2019)
Last week Meadow sent a letter to a number of
its producers giving them 12 months notice that they no longer require their
milk. Meadow declined to confirm how many notices have been issued but judging
by the people who have contacted Ian and alternative milk purchasers it could
easily number 50 plus affected farmers.
Meadow informed Ian the notices are linked to
quantity of milk supplied, farm assurance, milk quality including claiming they
have weeded out the “farms we couldn’t take a customer onto”. This does not run
true with farmers Ian has spoken to or indeed the notice letters which make no reference
to milk quality or any farm assurance concerns or failures. In addition Meadow
informed Ian some of the others under notice were small pickups of under 750
litres/day.
The sting in the tail is Meadows statement
that from April 1st 2020 for their final 3 months notice period
those farmers under notice will be paid at a B litre milk price. This must
surely be challenged by those involved because if Meadows contractual notice
period is 12 months how can they pay a B price for the final 3 months?
Ian would like to hear, on or off record,
from affected Meadow producers via email but it looks like a smoke screen with
Meadow having lost a serious amount of contracted volume somewhere and needing
to cut volume and cost quickly and if possible by squeezing loyal producers to
quit early.
The
Dairy Crest name has been ditched (4th
July 2019)
It hasn’t taken long for Dairy Crests new
Canadian owners Saputo to change the signs to Saputo Dairy UK as the name Dairy
Crest is confined to the history books. The Dairy Crest name was christened in
the 60’s by the MMB who started to sell its cheese under the brand name. Will
DCD be rebadged as SDD (Saputo Dairy Direct) which is the same abbreviation for
same day delivery?
Muller
confirms the closure of its Foston Derbyshire facility (4th July 2019)
It was a forgone conclusion that as part of
Mullers £100 million project Darwin it would close at least one factory and it
was no surprise that Foston is the one to be closed by the end of this year
with the loss of 223 full time jobs. Most of the milk will be diverted to
Mullers Manchester or Market Drayton facilities.
Regrettably 31 farmers are likely to be
served 12 months notice by Muller as a result of the closure mainly due to
geographical location. Muller will shortly be meeting the farmers involved both
in groups and individually.
The main issue is the constant annual
reduction in liquid consumption which is reducing by approximately 70 to 80
million litres year. In addition Fostons geographical location in relation to
Mullers other operations and its relatively small size circa 350 million litres
year are both key factors in the decision to close.
In order to achieve Mullers 2 year £100
million turnaround target under Project Darwin Muller are likely to have to make
further tough announcements and decisions.
Muller acquired the Foston factory from Dairy
Crest 3 years ago, so this is not a knee jerk reaction. With a minimum target
of all its processing facilities to be at 90% plus utilisation and today with
Foston averaging under 80% utilisation (180 farmers suppling 270 million litres
annually) Muller were forced to take action. The site is not for sale and is
likely to be put to new uses by the Muller Group.
AHDB’s
Dairy Contracts Legislation briefing tows the Unions Line on contract
legislation (4th July
2019)
Ian had a sneak preview of AHDB’s latest
briefing ahead of its publication on their website yesterday.
Its certainly a political hot potato and could
easily have been written by the NFU’s and over stamped with AHDB’s Market
Intelligence branding.
Four pages of the 10 page briefing are
devoted to reviewing how legislated milk contracts in Italy, France and Spain
operate yet no mention is made of the fundamental basics as to whether such
legislation is delivering those farmers a consistently better milk price than
that paid to GB farmers under discretionary pricing.
On page 5 there is a curious 1 to 5 star
rating which clearly gives a high star rating to formula pricing and a very low
star rating to the current buyer discretion pricing. This is likely to be a hot
topic for discussion and further analysis/challenges.
The one statement in the reports summary
which had Ian rolling his eyes back and taking a double take was the one
claiming that relationships where farmers and processors work in partnership
towards a common goal having strong lines of communication are not widespread
in GB. The report concludes “unfortunately those types of relationships are not
widespread.”
This must be a typo because GB wide such
relationships are fortunately widespread with farmer representation, PO’s,
Co-Ops etc eg, Muller, Arla, First Milk, Barbers, Tesco, Sainsburys, Saputo
Dairy UK (AKA Dairy Crest), Lactalis, M & S, SCC plus more.
Surely it’s a fact that ineffective or non
existent supply chain relationships which allow some smaller milk buyers to
steam roller over supplying farmers with unacceptable changes is the problem
and there are only a handful of rogues. Frankly Ian doubts any legislation
would change how these rogues operate and in some respects legislation could
play into their hands.
These are the bad apples. More on that in
Ians July Dairy Farmer Article.
The conclusion is its a bit like Ians school
reports AHDB could do better than this and should do but read it and make your
own minds up.
Dairy
Crest (Saputo Dairy UK) launches low calorie Cathedral City Cheese (4th July 2019)
Dairy Crest continues to drive innovation
with its latest development of a 50% less fat Cathedral City branded cheese
called “Cathedral City 82”. Its
a half fat cheese with one third less
calories than standard cheese.
The 82 range is initially exclusively
available in Tesco stores for nine months until March 2020.
This looks like a smart move by DC.
Note from the Editor AKA Ian (18th June 2019)
Given the lack of
real Dairy News this bulletin will be continue to produced as and when there is
anything newsworthy to report. Normal
Friday weekly editions will resume when necessary. Many Thanks Ian & Associates.
GDT down for a third consecutive Auction (18th June 2019)
Todays GDT saw the
third consecutive all prices reduction this time the fall was a further 3.8% to
average US $3208 tonne for 24,239 tonnes sold.
The previous two
auctions recorded falls of 1.2% and 3.4%.
Notable movements
were:
Butter down 5.7% to average
US $4553 tonne
Cheddar down 4.3% to average US
$3781 tonne
Whole Milk Powder down 4.3% to average US $3006 tonne
Skim Milk Powder down 3.5% to average US $2358 tonne
0.6ppl milk price reduction for direct suppliers to
Arla – from July 1st (18th June 2019)
This reduces
producer’s standard liquid litre milk price to 26.4ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 27.53ppl.
0.5ppl milk price decrease for suppliers to
Pattemores (liquid) – from 1st July (18th June 2019)
This reduces
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 27.15ppl and based on a
manufacturing standard litre 28.05ppl.
0.5ppl milk price decrease for Sainsbury’s (Muller
& Arla) producers from 1st July (18th June 2019)
The reduction
arises due to its quarterly cost tracker review of feed, fertiliser and fuel
prices.
The resulting
standard liquid litre prices are 30.15ppl (Muller) and 30.3ppl (Arla).
Dairy Crest to stand-on with its July producer milk
price (18th June 2019)
This hold
maintains producer’s standard manufacturing litre price at 29.90ppl and based
on a standard liquid litre at 28.82ppl which is another excellent achievement
for DC and DCD.
Belton Farm (Cheese) to stand-on with its June milk
price (18th June 2019)
This hold
maintains producers standard manufacturing litre price at 28ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre at 27.25ppl.
First Milk to stand-on with its July member milk
price (18th June 2019)
This hold
maintains member’s standard manufacturing litre price at 28.37ppl and based on
a standard liquid litre at 27.45ppl.
Freshways to stand-on with its June producer milk
price – PRODUCER NOTIFIED (18th June 2019)
Freshways standard
liquid litres for June will remain at 27.06ppl and this will be the minimum
price for July.
Freshways will now
give its suppliers a minimum 21 days notice of any further price charges which
unless our Freshway moles have failed to press on any recent communications
translates to the same price being paid for June and July deliveries.
African Swine Fever ripples from China (18th June 2019)
The African Swine
Fever outbreak which was first recorded last August is rampant in Asia with
others fearing it is now a case of when it spreads to other parts of the world
not if.
ASF is reducing
Chinas pig herd at an alarming rate and with it comes a significant reduction
in the demand for whey (cheese makers
valuable by product) a key component in piglets feeds.
Many predict a
total reduction in the Chinese pork herd of 25% would be a good result and
remember China is responsible for 50% of global pork production so a 25%
reduction equates to 12.5% of world output.
Pig prices across
the world are heading North as China seeks to replace its lost output. In
addition Chinese beef imports have rocketed. In April China imported 130,000
tonnes up 75% compared to April 2018 figures and domestic Chinese beef prices
are also heading North. There are now reports, due to reduced pork availability
and increasing prices it is influencing Chinese farmers who have started to
prematurely slaughter dairy cows for the beef market.
So worldwide
demand for beef and other meats from China is on the increase and the
likelihood is that for the remainder of 2019 the ASF outbreak in China is going
to play a major role in the volatility of world meat prices and whey prices
with one up and the other down.
1ppl milk price
reduction for Pensworth (liquid) suppliers –from
June 1st . (24th May 2019)
This
reduces producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 25.35ppl and based
on an Organic standard litre 39.35ppl
0.5ppl milk price
reduction for Wyke Farms (cheese) suppliers – June
1st (24th May
2019)
This
reduces producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 28.47ppl and based
on a standard liquid litre to 27.5ppl.
0.3ppl milk price
reduction for First Milk Members – from
June 1st (24th
May 2019)
This
reduces producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 28.37ppl and based
on a standard liquid litre to 27.45ppl.
Arla to stand-on with
its June member milk price (24th May 2019)
This
hold means the current champions league standard manufacturing litre price of
30.23ppl and standard liquid litre price of 29.06ppl are retained for a 5th
consecutive month.
Arlas
Organic members standard litre milk price remains at 41.98ppl (manufacturing)
and 40.34ppl (liquid).
Credition Dairy to
stand-on with is June producer milk price (24th May 2019)
This
hold means the current very healthy standard liquid litre milk price of 28.5ppl
is retained.
Freshways Suppliers
vent their anger over major contract change (24th May 2019)
The
Nijjar family yesterday demonstrated how little its Directors feel any necessity
to engage with its supplying farmers having given them all five weeks bombshell
notice of a significant price drop and contract change.
Ian
calls it the Arla factor because Arla’s 5 months standard liquid litre price
of 29.06ppl and its inclusion in the
Freshways basket price is “now making us
(Freshways) even more uncompetitive” as commented by MD Bali Nijjar in his
letter to producers this week.
Freshways
have operated a transparent basket price featuring five liquid processors for
16 years (since 2003) which now include Arla, Muller Meadow, Paynes & Yew Tree. However now the Arla
price doesn’t suit Freshways and in a letter to producers state “Their (Arlas) June price of 29.06ppl is
substantially higher than the remaining 4 in the basket who average 26.6ppl.”
Result
is after 16 years Freshways have given just over 1 months notice that its
contract pricing terms will be unilaterally changed and the basket price will
be ditched to be replaced with a Freshways schedule which simply translates to
a significant price cut.
To
say this has come as a complete bombshell is an under statement especially
given the fact several Freshways Farmers suppliers claim their farmer
representatives were not consulted and the change was imposed.
If
correct Freshways are playing a very dangerous game because the change is
coming at a time when total GB output is heading towards “normal” and futures
prices and market sentiment is cautiously looking towards at least stability in
milk prices if not some small increases. In other words the change is short
notice and well behind market movements.
It’s
a long time since so many farmers vented their anger at Ian as much as
Freshways suppliers have in the past 24 hours.
To
summarise these Freshways farmers do not feel Freshways have been fair and to
change a pricing mechanism which has operated for 16 years at a months notice
with zero consultation has been interpreted that Freshways can steam roller any
changes they wish and “stick two fingers
up to producers.”
Back
in January in Ians Dairy Farmer Article he wrote “I agree there have been a small handful of milk purchasers who have
crossed the line with unacceptable behaviour.” And that “such practices have to be stamped out.”
Michael
Oakes, NFU Dairy Board chairman stated “milk
purchasers cant be trusted to deliver fair contract terms and continue to use
and abuse farmers.”
As
a generalisation applied to UK milk purchasers Ian disagreed with Oakes but
understands why Freshways suppliers are furious and feel both Michael Oakes and
Ians comments now apply to Freshways.
Several
Freshways farmers are threatening to walk on the basis if the contract terms
can be changed to drop their milk price in a months time they should be able to
leave on the 28th July or after.
For
these farmers any Trust has evaporated over night and I guess voting with their
feet is the only way their anger will be registered.
Whilst
Muller have project Darwin Freshways perhaps need project Thunderbird because for
sure International Rescue is needed to improve its relationship and
communication with its suppliers.
Mark Allen sails into
the sunset as the name Dairy Crest Vanishes (24th May 2019)
Mark
Allen has announced his decision to step down ass CEO of Dairy Crest with
immediate effect which will come as no surprise to all involved given it’s a
case of “Job Done”.
Mark
will be around until July when the Dairy Crest brand will be confined to the
history books and replaced with the brand name Saputo Dairy UK.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for Grahams Dairies producers from 1st May (3rd May 2019)
This reduces producers standard liquid litre
milk price to 26ppl.
In a letter to producers Grahams are upfront in
declaring they are having to handle significant additional unplanned volumes
which have necessitated the forward sale of 1 million litres of spot milk at
14ppl as well as 8 surplus artic loads having been sold on the 27th
April alone!!
Grahams report that 65% of its producers have
increased milk production compared to 2018 levels and around 10 producers who
are having the biggest impact are talking to Grahams on a 1:1.
Having scrapped its A & B system prior to
the 2017 flush it means all Grahams producers feel the pain and not just those
who are contributing to the dramatic increase.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for Barbers (cheese) producers milk price – from 1st
June (3rd
May 2019)
This reduces producers standard manufacturing
litre milk price to 28.36ppl and based on a liquid standard litre to 27.34ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price reduction for Blackmore Vale Farm Cream from May 1st –
PRODUCER NOTIFIED (3rd
May 2019)
This reduces producers standard liquid litre
milk price to 28.2ppl
0.35ppl
milk price reduction for Wensleydale (Cheese) producers milk price – from 1st
May – PRODUCER NOTIFIED (3rd
May 2019)
Very last minute price changes are still
around and this one reduces producers standard manufacturing litre milk price
to 28.35ppl and based on a liquid standard litre to 27.4ppl.
0.35ppl
milk price reduction for Pattemores Dairy producers – from 1st
June (3rd May 2019)
This reduces producers liquid standard litre
milk price to 27.65ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre 28.57ppl.
Dairy
Crest (Cheese) to stand-on with its June producer milk price at 29.9ppl (3rd May 2019)
This is fourth consecutive Dairy Crest
producer milk price hold and is worthy of a mention and thumbs up to all involved
in achieving a hold until at least 1st July.
The hold means the manufacturing standard
litre remains at 29.9ppl and on a liquid standard litre 28.82ppl.
Belton
Farm (cheese) stands on until July 1st at 28ppl (3rd May 2019)
The hold means the manufacturing standard
litre remains at 28ppl and on a liquid standard litre 27.25ppl.
Muller
possible Dairy Closure as part of Project Darwin (3rd
May 2019)
Local knowledge to Ian’s office indicates
employees at Muller’s Foston Dairy are now under a 45 day consultation with a
view to Muller having to close the factory.
The former Amelca plant has certainly had a
very chequered history from when it first opened and closed after a few weeks
when the business folded spectacularly.
Project Darwin was launched in February this
year with a clear target to achieve £100 million in savings by the end of 2020
at the latest and this is another stepping stone towards that target.
Mullers six dairies are under capacity and
need to be pushing at 90% or more capacity and to achieve this one site will
close.
Muller process and supply more than 50% of
the GB fresh milk requirements and margins are almost non existent.
In addition to the closures Ian has received
emails from a couple of Muller wholesale customers who are rather annoyed that
Muller are ditching their business on the basis it’s uneconomical to continue
to supply them with fresh milk products. Tough as it is Muller did give plenty
of advance warning and it has to turn this business around.
All eyes and ears will be on CEO of Muller
Patrick Muller when he presents at next weeks annual Dairy Industry News
conference.
This is Arlas 4th consecutive member
milk price hold keeping the standard liquid litre price at 29.06ppl and based
on a manufacturing standard litre 30.23ppl.
This is a welcome if not remarkable
achievement by Arla and certainly puts more pressure on other processors who
are finding current prices extremely challenging. During the past week spot
milk has been regularly trading between 13 to 15ppl and the signs are pointing
towards further weakening as milk production continues to increase. Several
processors who in previous years have managed to track Arla have now been left
standing and many, particularly liquid processors will have little option other
than to do their own thing and do what is right for the survival of their
businesses.
Arlas members who supply Organic Milk also
benefit from a price hold at 41.98 based on a manufacturing standard litre and
40.34ppl based on a liquid standard litre.
As we rapidly approach the 30th April Arla
one contract sign up deadline the news from Mainland Europe is some farmers and
their representative organisations are unhappy with the new One Contract terms.
The Danish dairy farmers Union LDM have
appointed two lawyers who have studied Arla's One contract and terms, and both
lawyers have issues which Arla will have to address or are addressing.
First is the threat a non signing farmer will
be given notice and his contract terminated
after one year on 1st May 2020,
which they claim is illegal and contrary to Arla's own Articles of
Association, as well as basic Danish co-op rules. LDM claim Arla have admitted
this is a valid complaint and have agreed to withdraw the threat.
Ian had an email exchange with Arla over this
and two other clauses back in March, and on further reading of the
comprehensive Arla response it does appear that this threat cannot be
implemented and Arla have rewound.
In addition, LDM is in opposition to point 13
in the contract which is affectively a gagging order on each individual member
which they refer to as the “mouth basket” rule or confidentiality clause. Once
again LDM claim Arla has accepted that it needs to revise this wording and
dilute it down.
Finally LDM is in opposition to point 15,
which moves power from the board of representatives to the board of directors.
The end result is that Arla are expected to
issue a legal appendix to the new contract shortly.
It is a certainty that any changes
spearheaded by the Danish, German and Swedish representative organisations will
be unilaterally applied to all Arla members.
For Arla it will certainly make life simpler
and tidy up the terms all members adhere. Its hardly surprising farmers in
Denmark are scrutinising the detail forensically, given the fact Arla are such
a dominant milk buyer and no alternatives are available to supply other milk
processors.
Here in GB, though, sign-up is proceeding
almost as planned and almost complete with allegedly 90% plus of GB farmers
signed up to the new contract. Bizarrely, given the cacophony of noise and
decades of chest beating and self flagellation over contracts by the farming
unions there has been on this issue... silence and dutiful acceptance that all
is right and all is well.
James Osman, Chief Dairy Advisor for National
Farmers Union commented to Landbrugsavisen (a leading Danish Farm publication )
that UK-farmers have no significant problems with the agreement. Ian has
recently had email correspondence with both NFU Scotland and NFU, and neither
are aware of any specific concerns having been raised with them.
That’s a head scratcher, because the two NFUs
are placing significant importance and urgency on the absolute necessity for
Government to push through contract legislation and reform. It's not many weeks
ago that the NFUs supposedly had loads of members highlighting it was a big
problem... yet non of them must supply
Arla as there have been no questions from GB farmers and no questions from the
NFU’s! Still, despite this lack of an issue among grass roots Arla farmers
(which is also echoed by most farmers supplying most processors) the NFU's will
press on with their contract reform bombast, regardless.
This article appeared in a recent Danish agricultural
paper which we have had translated and summaries the position.
So is
the opinion of other countries' milk producers on the Arla agreement
In
Denmark, LDM has been highly critical of Arla's new supplier agreement. In
other countries, they also look at the paragraphs.
It is
not only the National Association of Danish Milk Producers who are critical of
the agreement, which Arla has during the last month's time tried to get its
members in Denmark and abroad to sign.
The
supplier agreement, which is a legal document, will in future regulate the
rights and obligations of the members of the dairy company. According to the
dairy company's own announcement, the agreement is created because you want to
digitise its agreements with the members, rather than having them lying on
paper and there is nothing new in the agreements.
But
several critical voices have since criticised the agreement back in February
criticised the agreement to make milk producers significantly worse than
before.
At LDM
one has gone so far as to directly discourage its members from signing the
agreement. And Thursday evening, a meeting was held in Agerskov, where two
lawyers with knowledge of agriculture, directly advised farmers NOT to sign -
and to withdraw signatures if they have already signed.
According
to chairman Stefan Gård, the Swedish milk producers in the Swedish Milk Farmers
are still looking at the agreement and have not yet come up with a
recommendation to the members.
The
same goes for the German association, BDM, the Bundesverband Deutsche
Milchviehhalter. Here, however, one is somewhat cautious about commenting - on
the grounds that Arla has threatened that you can be thrown out as a farmer if
you do not sign or if you talk about the company publicly in the future.
"It's
a bit of a problem we've talked to several critical Arla owners. But they are
afraid to talk about it because they don't want to lose their contract," a
BDM employee says.
"You
can write that we see the changes as a problem. The changes only benefit the
company. We haven't decided on an official position yet. But if it were me, I
wouldn't sign it," he says.
NO
ESSENTIAL ISSUES
According
to several reports from Arla, the most criticized point in the agreement,
namely the confidentiality clause, comes from England, where it is more normal
than in Denmark and Sweden. In England, too, the agreement has not been
identified as a problem, says National Farmers Union Dairy Department.
"Some
of our members have contacted us with their concerns about the contract and we
are reviewing it from a legal point of view, but so far we see no significant
issues," writes James Osman, chief adviser of the dairy area of the
National Farmers Union in a written feedback
Wykes standard liquid litre price will remain
at 28ppl and based on a standard manufacturing litre 28.99ppl.
This results in a standard liquid litre price
of 29.56ppl.
Last weeks GDT Auction produced a small
average all products price rise of 0.5% to average US $3447 tonne. The result was
as anticipated with previous auction gains maintained.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries (cheese) – from
1st May (5th
April 2019)
This results is a manufacturing standard
litre price of 28.03ppl
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm (cheese) from 1st
May (5th April 2019)
This results in a manufacturing standard litre
milk price of 28ppl and based on a liquid standard litre 27.25ppl.
0.37ppl
milk price reductionfor suppliers to Lactalis (cheese) from 1st
April - (5th April 2019)
This takes producers standard manufacturing litre
milk price to 28.27ppl and 27.13ppl based on a standard liquid litre.
0.3ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Freshways – from April 1st – PRODUCER NOTIFIED (5th April 2019
Freshways have notified its producers of a
further 0.3ppl milk price reduction on their A litres from April 1st
which reduces the A price liquid standard litre to 27.06ppl
0.34ppl
milk price reduction for Tesco aligned producers from 1st May – PRODUCER NOTIFIED (5th April 2019)
Muller
(liquid) to stand on with its May milk price at 26.75ppl (5th April 2019)
The 26.75ppl is a standard liquid litre price
which includes the 0.5ppl premium. The Muller Direct Organic standard liquid
litre May price is 40.25ppl.
Crediton
Dairy (liquid) to stand on with its May milk price at 28.5ppl (5th April 2019)
Crediton continue to head the liquid
processor league table with a liquid standard litre price of 28.5ppl.
Pattemores
(liquid) to stand on again with its May milk price at 28ppl (5th April 2019)
Pattemores standard liquid litre price of
28ppl is set to remain one of the leading liquid processor milk prices for yet
another month only to be top trumped by Crediton Dairy.
Dairy
Crest (cheese) to stand on with its May milk price at 29.9ppl (5th April 2019)
This is an impressive move by Dairy Crest who
have held their producer milk price at 29.9ppl (based on a standard
manufacturing litre) for four consecutive months. Based on a standard liquid
litre the price remains at 28.82ppl.
Barbers
(cheese) to stand on with its May milk price at 29.13ppl (5th April 2019)
This is the fourth consecutive month Barbers
have held producer prices at this level which is 29.13ppl based on a standard
manufacturing litre and 28.09ppl based on a standard liquid litre.
First
Milk (cheese) stand on with its May member milk price at 28.68ppl (5th April 2019)
First Milks decision to hold its April milk
price for May results in a standard manufacturing litre milk price of 28.68ppl
(including the 0.25ppl member premium paid in April 2020) and based on a
standard liquid litre 27.75ppl.
Milk
Deliveries update (5th
April)
According to AHDB Dairy GB milk deliveries
for week ending 23rd March were up 4.3% compared to the same week last
year equivalent to an additional 1.5million litres day and heading for the most
milk produced in 32 years and towards 15 billion litres.
To add to the problem is the fact milk
production in Southern Ireland is also at record levels. January to February
2019 production is up 3.2% and The Emerald Isles 2018 milk output was up 4.4%
to 7.58 billion litres up a whopping 53% on the 2007 to 2009 average annual
production.
Dairy
Crest 1 Billion pound sale is approved
(5th April 2019)
The sale of the remaining Dairy Crest
business to Canadian Saputo has been approved at 6.20 per share valuing the
business at almost £1 Billion. The new owners will take charge on April 15th.
0.37ppl
milk price reductionfor suppliers to Lactalis (cheese) from 1st
April (26th March 2019)
This takes producers standard manufacturing
litre milk price to 28.27ppl and 27.13ppl based on a standard liquid litre.
Arla
to stand on with Members April milk price which continues to defy gravity (22nd
March 2019)
Arla continue to leave most of its UK
competitors scratching their heads having today announced that their will be no
change to the Arla member April milk price which is Arla’s third consecutive
monthly price hold.
This means from April 1st the
following www.milkprices.com standard
litre prices will be paid.
Conventional Organic
Manufacturing standard Litre 30.23ppl 41.98ppl
Liquid Standard litre
29.06ppl 40.34ppl
There has been a tiny 0.01ppl quarterly
smoothing adjustment to be the above prices.
Arla’s milk price to date has defied gravity
and is certainly a talking point amongst Arla members and non Arla suppliers
especially those who have been on the receiving end of numerous 2019 price
cuts.
0.5ppl
bonus for suppliers to Crediton Dairy = from 1st April (22nd
March 2019)
From 1st April Crediton dairy will
introduce a 0.5ppl bonus for producers
who opt into recording specified health
& Welfare parameters under its Farm Metrics Scheme which includes lameness,
mastitis etc.
Whilst the scheme is optional it is
anticipated that a very significant percentage of Creditons suppliers will opt
in and achieve the new premium. Payments
will be made each month and not accumulated and paid at the end of the year as
practised by some milk purchasers who appear to fear producers might give
notice to leave in which case those under notice forfeit any such bonus. Crediton are understandably more confident in
the stability and loyalties of its producer base hence the decision to pay all
who qualify for the bonus on a monthly basis.
Given the almost inevitable certainty that
more than 50% of Crediton suppliers will take part it will increase the
Crediton standard litre price to 28.5ppl.
Morrison’s
are the latest retailer to sign up to Arla 360 (22nd
March 2019)
Morrison’s are the second retailer to sign up
to the Arla 360 farm standards scheme and follow Aldi who were first past the
post. The Arla 360 standard is a scheme
whereby one standard has been set by the farmer members/processor as opposed to
various retailers setting multiple standards for farmers and retailers to abide
by.
Approximately 200 Arla farmers are aligned to
Morrison’s and set to benefit. All will
be paid a “top secret” supplement in return they will have six months to
deliver the standards and comply in six distinct areas. The rumour is that the
payment is around 1ppl which will certainly inject multi millions into farmers
pockets.
Anyone who opts out or fails to meet the
standard will be replaced with another Arla member.
Morrison’s are the first retailer to sign up
to the Arla UK 360 standards across the complete range of Arla milk supply.
They currently have their own group and
clearly having signed up view this as a longer term commitment to both Arla and
their aligned farmers.
1st
March Standard liquid Milk Price league table (22nd March 2019)
|
Purchaser |
Mar-19 |
|
Arla Foods |
29.07 |
|
Davidstow |
28.82 |
|
Barbers |
28.09 |
|
Glanbia |
28.07 |
|
Crediton Dairy |
28 |
|
Pattemores 1
Million |
28 |
|
Wyke Farms |
28 |
|
Belton |
28 |
|
First Milk |
27.5 |
|
Lactalis/Caledonian |
27.5 |
|
Meadow Foods |
27.5 |
|
Grahams Dairies |
26.75 |
|
Muller Wiseman;
standard |
26.75 |
|
Paynes |
26.7 |
1ppl milk price reduction for
suppliers to Glanbia (Cheese) – from 1st April (15th March 2019)
This results in a manufacturing standard litre
milk price of 28ppl and based on a liquid standard litre 27.07ppl
1ppl milk price reduction for
suppliers Dale Farm (Kendal) (8th
March 2019)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk
price of 28.14ppl.
0.75ppl milk price reduction for suppliers
to Meadow Foods – from 1st April (15th March 2019)
This takes producers standard liquid litre
milk price down to 26.75ppl
0.75ppl milk price reduction for
suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1st April – PRODUCER NOTIFIED (15th March 2019)
Its top secret what the Heler standard litre
price will be so much so that even the supplying farmers don’t know and can’t
compare. Apologies.
0.75ppl milk price reduction for
suppliers to Yew Tree Dairy – from 1st April (15th March 2019)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk
price of 26.75ppl
Belton Farm (Cheesemakers) to hold
prices for March (15th
March 2019)
This retains producers’ standard
manufacturing litre milk price at 28.75ppl and based on a standard liquid litre
at 28ppl.
Barbers (Cheese) to hold suppliers
milk price for a Third consecutive month (15th March 2019)
This retains producers’ standard
manufacturing litre milk price at 29.13ppl and based on a standard liquid litre
at 28.09ppl.
First Milk to hold its Member Milk
price for April (15th
March 2019)
This means for February, March and April
First Milk members manufacturing Standard Litre milk price has remained
unchanged at 28.43ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 27.5ppl.
0.54ppl milk price increase for Marks
& Spencers Suppliers from – 1st April (15th March 2019)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk
price of 33.36ppl.
0.25ppl 13th Payment/Member
Premium to be paid to First Milk members in 2020 (15th March 2019)
This is a new additional 13th
payment which is calculated monthly based on capital invested and paid as a
lump sum in April next year.
To receive the full 0.25ppl a member must
have reached their capital contribution target. The maximum capital a First
Milk member can achieve is 200% which would result in a 0.5ppl payment.
Taking into account the 0.25ppl payment this
increases the First Milk manufacturing standard litre milk price to 28.68ppl
and on a liquid standard litre to 27.75ppl.
GDT Auction jumps up + 3.3% (15th March 2019)
Last weeks GDT Auction saw the average all
products index increase by 3.3% to average $3309 tonne the highest seen for 9
months. The only casualty was SMP where prices dipped by 4.3% since the previous
action only two weeks ago. This is the 7th consecutive average price
rise since December 4th 2018 and New Zealand analysts say that with
the current strong ex farm milk output the increased prices are demand driven
mainly from China.
Notable price movements were:
Cheddar
up 6%
to
average US $3888 tonne
WMP
up 6%
to average US $3186 tonne
Butter
up 3.7% to average
US $4657 tonne
SMP
down 4.3% to average US $2462 tonne
Milk Price Outlook is heading for
further price reductions (15th
March 2019)
UK milk output is simply a pipeline heading
rapidly towards full bore and pressure.
It’s a fact that other than the dramatic and
sudden intervention of Mother Nature with a second Beast from any direction the
only signal likely to rein in production will be further processor price drops.
Spot milk is heading South and is under 20p
with trades today reported at 18ppl and showing no signs of levelling with some
fearing a return of single digit prices.
Cream has dropped by 25p from £1.65 and
hovering around £1.40 in only 4 weeks a reduction equivalent to around 2.5ppl
to a liquid processor or retailer depending on contract terms.
The forward market signals offer no
encouragement and are sliding South.
Arla and most of the cheese processors are
indeed performing extremely well in holding farmgate milk prices at current
levels for the moment. If they can ride through spring holding current prices
it will be a cracking result.
One positive is that only 1,400 tonnes of SMP
remain in EU Intervention stores compared to 380,000 tonnes in 16 months ago in
November 2017.
Not sure how much foreign cheese is in our
stores in the run up to Brexit but its a fact there has been significant
forward buying of dairy products in the run up to Brexit which is likely to
cool down from this point forward as buyers sit back. That’s unless we end up
with a delay and they opt to keep topping their dairy stocks up as an
insurance.
According to the predictions of industry
analyst Chris Walkland the UK has only ever produced 45 million litres a day on
two previous days and this year we could touch 46 million litres/day.
Unless things change very soon he predicts
spring 2019 will see that 45 million litre day smashed for 30 consecutive days.
That leaves one big question. Do we have the
capacity to process all the milk or will we see distress milk?
It won’t matter a jot what Ian Potter
says because what will be will be and it now seems inevitable that further
price cuts are on the cards especially from some liquid processors, unless
something sensational happens to cut UK milk output and quickly.
Back in October Ian stated by spring 2019 there
would be a price correction to somewhere between 26 to 27ppl for liquid
processors and not a price crash. That assumed it was a “normal” year. Its by
no means a normal year in terms of milk volumes in terms of the political
uncertainty the industry faces so those predictions could be history within
weeks.
Overall the Outlook is not looking good with
the likelihood of more pain before any gain. Don’t shoot the messenger who has
a pretty good track record of calling this market. Nervous times are certainly
here.
Arla to be Carbon neutral/net Zero by
2050 (15th March 2019)
Arla has set a target from the cow to the
consumer to be carbon zero by 2050 with any unavoidable emissions entirely
offset by actions elsewhere in the supply chain. In addition Arla will balance
Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles to support clean water and equally important to
be more closely aligned with Nature to further increase bio diversity across
the British countryside.
Its an impressive target for which detailed
plans specific to the UK will be published shortly and will involve all at Arla
from the dairy farmer to the consumer.
It’s the sort if plan which gets you noticed
with retailers and food service buyers.
Arlas UK MD Ash Amirahmadi comments “One
of the greatest challenges facing us all is providing natural, nutritious food
for a growing population whilst reducing our collective impact on the world
around us. Arla has already shown this is possible and the new ambitions
announced today will ensure Arla’s farmers”.
2nd year of Dairy Promotion
hits Cinema screens in London (15th
March 2019)
The joint AHDB/Dairy UK funded Department of
Dairy Related Scrumptious Affairs consumer advertising is now in its second
year and from this Monday (11th March) includes Cinema advertising.
The £1.2 million campaign will run across the
nation for 10 weeks and is targeted at yound parents and uses powerful messages
reminding young parents of the nutritional value in dairy products.
0.8ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st
March (1st March 2019)
This results in a standard liquid litre price
of 26.7ppl
Arla maintain their leading position by holding producer prices
for a 2nd consecutive month (1st March 2019)
Arla will maintain its conventional
member milk price at 30.24ppl based on a manufacturing standard litre and
29.07ppl based on a standard liquid litre.
Muller to stand on for April will be a huge relief to its
suppliers (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (1st March 2019)
Following last months 1.25ppl
shock March milk price reduction Muller farmers will be pleased with the news
that their will be no milk price reduction for April deliveries. The Muller
liquid standard litre price for March & April is 26.75ppl including the
0.5ppl premium paid in arrears and without that premium its 26.25ppl.
The equivalent March price for
Arla members (see above) is 29.07ppl a gap of 2.32ppl if you include the Muller
0.5ppl premium. Without the premium the
gap is an eye watering 2.82ppl.
Dairy Crest to stand on for April milk payments
(1st
March 2019)
The standard manufacturing
litre price will remain at 29.9ppl and based on a standard liquid litre
28.82ppl.
Meadow Foods to stand on for March milk payments (1st March 2019)
This means Meadow have held
their producer price for February and March at 27.5ppl for a standard liquid
litre.
Barbers cheese to stand on for a third consecutive month (1st March
2019)
For a third month Barbers
standard manufacturing litre price will remain at 29.13ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre 28.09ppl.i
Pattermores to stand on for April milk payments (1st March
2019)
The standard liquid litres will
remain at 28ppl and based on standard manufacturing litre 28.93ppl
0.9ppl Arla Organic member milk price reduction- from
1st March. (1st March
2019)
This reduction still leaves
Arla winning at Top Trumps and results in an organic standard manufacturing
litre price of 43.55ppl and based on a liquid standard liquid litre 41.85ppl.
In the last bulletin we
confirmed that Omsco had reduced its March producer milk price by 1ppl. Based
on a standard liquid litre this result in a 41ppl price.
Arla will pay its former members its entire 2018 net profit of
290 million Euros/£257 million. (1st March 2019)
This will amount to an
additional 2.3 euro cents per kg/milk or 2.07ppl for its 11,200 European
members on all milk delivered.
UK wise Arlas revenue from
retail and Food service was up 3.3% to break the £2 billion barrier (2017 £1.9
4 billion).
Without doubt when you sift
through all of the numbers it's Arlas huge basket of branded products on offer
to the UK consumers which are driving these results. Arla branded product sales
grew 8.6% and have an average annual growth for the last 5 years of 8.8%.
The total member pay out is
£245 million of which 2,500 UK members will receive £64 million this month.
Production update (1st March
2019)
Whilst milk production in the
key mainland Europe Nations of France, Germany and Holland are lower than they
were in 2018 that certainly is not the case in GB with milk flowing at such a
rate it's heading for the rocks with the real possibility we simply won't have
sufficient processing capacity at peak production.
According to AHDB Dairy GB milk
deliveries are running at 800,000 litres a day up (+2.2%) or + 5.6 million a
week.
Saputo from Canada to buy Dairy Crest for close to 1
billion. (1st March
2019)
Once Dairy Crest succeeded in
offloading its liquid business to Muller it was inevitable the more profitable
and attractive. Davidstow Cheese
facility would be sold and it's heading for ownership by Saputo who are in the
top 10 largest in the world.
Canadian owned world dairy
giant Saputo have made a cash offer of £6.20 per share totalling £964 million
and Dairy Crest board approval is set to be unanimous.
Dairy Crest is certainly a
solid, branded profitable operation which for the last financial year delivered
a profit after tax of 150 million.
It's good news for Dairy Crest
share holders, great news CEO Mark Allen (who will be off with the Loot into
the Sun set) and appears to be good news for the Dairy Crest farmer suppliers.
Saputo have no operations in Europe
which means a very limited if not negligible threat from Saputo importing
cheese to the UK.
It's a near certainty Saputo will change very little and will certainly value
their inherited supplying farmers who should view this as a great result and will
simply see business as usual.
Another advantage is that
Saputo will be in a strong position to fund and accelerate growth and expansion
at the Davidstow processing facility.
Trade for First Milk shares is a buyers market (1st March 2019)
Yesterday saw the second asset
match monthly sale of First Milk C preference shares close where only 186,000
shares changed hands at 11p per share down almost 40% on last months sale
average which saw 152,000 shares trade for 18p out of a total issue of 68.5
million shares..
Not good news for former First
Milk suppliers seeking to cash in their investment.
George Eustice quits as Environment Minister (1st March 2019)
George Eustice, who was a big
supporter of Brexit, has resigned over The Prime Ministers promise to allow
MP’s to vote on a Brexit delay if her deal
is rejected on the 12th March.
He is basically against the
government going to the EU only 17 days before 29th March begging
for an extension.
Snow storm takes 1800 cows
(1st
March 2019)
A combination of serious
snowfall and extreme temperatures in Southern Washington (USA) has seen 1800
cows perish bringing with it a bill of over £3 million excluding lost milk
which was dumped.
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Pensworth (liquid) – from 1st
March (15th February 2019)
This result in a standard liquid litre price
of 26.35ppl.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to OMSCO – from 1st March (15th
February 2019)
The price change will affect 250 OMSCO supplying
farmers and is a direct reflection on the challenging uncertainties OMSCO face
as a no deal Brexit looms closer to reality.
In addition members have been notified it is
unlikely there will be and 13th payment for the 2018/19 milk year.
At the same time the Co-op is also
introducing an A & B milk pricing mechanism in a bid to limit the impact of
the additional litres they have to handle both in terms of increasing
production and in the event OMSCO’s successful dairy product exports come to a sudden
halt on 27th March.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – from 1st
February (15th February 2019)
This is highly likely to be the final
February 1st price change which was notified to producers at the end
of January,
The result s a standard manufacturing litre
milk price of 28.7ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 27.75ppl.
Belton
Farm to hold its producer milk price for March (15th
February 2019)
This means until 1st April the
Belton standard manufacturing litre milk price will be 28.75ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre 28ppl.
1.25ppl
shock price drop for Muller Direct producers from 1st March (31st January 2019)
Muller have shocked the majority of the Dairy
Industry with a 1st March price drop amounting to 1.25ppl.
Muller say one of the key reasons for the
drop is a surge of unplanned milk smashing all forecasts and expectations.
Muller have indicated they were irresponsibly
scare mongered by various organisations that on farm winter production would be
hit hard following last summers drought. The reality is the opposite has
occurred with a significant production surge.
Muller, and others, are having to handle the
biggest GB milk output for more than 25 years and say they simply cannot absorb
the extra milk and associated cost especially in the ridiculously cut throat
and marginless liquid packing business.
This 1.25ppl drop reduces the February
standard litre price for 700 Muller Direct Farmers from 28ppl to 26.75ppl a
price which includes the 0.5ppl Muller premium which an estimated 80% of Muller
Direct producers achieve and is paid annually in arrears to those who quality
who are not under notice to leave. Some refer to it as a loyalty bonus!
Without that 0.5ppl premium the standard
litre price is 26.25ppl.
Mullers spin Doctor has certainly been taking
steroids and is keen to remind everyone that around one third of the 700 Muller
Direct producers will continue to receive 28ppl for the portion of their milk
output they committed under the fixed price contact option.
There can be no doubt Muller have broad
shoulders and “big balls” especially given they are one of the few remaining
voluntary code complaint milk buyers and offer a short 3 month farmer notice
period.
All eyes will now be on Arla when they
declare their 1st March milk price. If Arla do manage to announce a
no price change it will leave a whopping 2.81ppl standard liquid litre price
gap between them and Muller (or 2.31ppl if the Muller Premium is included). If
that happens the big question will be how and why this gap can happen.
In addition its looking very much like Muller
could be one of the lowest March prices however it’s a fact a bunch of middle
ground liquid processors will be breathing a huge sigh of relief as they really
battle to breakeven. Watch out for the introduction of A + B pricing by some as
a solution.
What
message does Ian think Muller are sending to the Industry (31st January 2019)
Muller were unavailable for coment today but
Ian thinks their message is very simple.
“We
can’t make money in the UK liquid market having invested a shed load of money.
The NFU’s are insisting farmers share the risks and rewards with milk
processors. Consequently we have cut the farmer milk price to share the risks
and lack of rewards with our farmer suppliers just as the NFU’s are insisting.”
So Muller could now be fully on board with
the NFU’s and their contract reform demands.
Unfortunate
Market Intelligence comment from AHDB (31st
January 2019)
Within minutes of the Muller price drop
announcement came an AHDB Dairy Market weekly update with a headline:
“Boost
to market value of milk may halt drops in farmgate prices.”
The news item pointed to a reversal of “the
direction of market trends “ which could put an end to downward pressure on
market farmgate prices. Very unfortunate timing by AHDB Dairy Market
Intelligence.
Dairy
Crest Direct (Davidstow) to hold its milk price for March (31st January 2019)
This means that for March deliveries the
Dairy Crest standard Manufacturing litre milk price remains at 29.9ppl and
based on a standard liquid litre is at 28.82ppl
UK
Milk Futures Equivalent (UK MFE) prices take a battering (31st January 2019)
The FC store milkprices.com UKMFE forward
trades took a battering last week with weaker prices for butter, and SMP plus a
further strengthening of sterling against the euro.
www.milkprices.com
calculate that in the past 4 weeks these combined price movements equate to 1.48ppl
drop in milk values and takes the net UK MFE milk price to 27.10ppl
Wyke
Farms to double its capacity (31st
January 2019)
Farmhouse cheese makers Wyke have secured
planning permission which when complete will almost treble its output from the
current 18,000 tonnes to around 50,000 tonnes. The new facility will be named
Ivys Dairy after the familys famous grandmother and will be built in stages
over 8 years.
Crediton
Dairy unveil its £12m Expansion (31st January 2019)
Starting next month Crediton will invest £12
million in its flavoured milk processing facility boosting its processing
capacity. Completion is planned for August 2019.
Since the Management buyout less than 6 years
ago this will take the total Crediton investment will amount to £26 million.
EU
Aged SMP is sold (31st January 2019)
At last the European Union has almost cleared
the last of close to 400,000 tonnes of Intervention SMP. This is good news and
eliminates a big black cloud which has hung over Europe and the world dairy industry
for almost 4 years.
The tonnage started to accumulate in the
summer of 2015. Its sale will certainly help the current price of fresh SMP.
Save the date
This year’s Dairy
Industry Newsletter annual dairy conference will be May 9-10 in London, at the
Tara Copthorne Hotel as usual. The theme is ‘Will Dairy Supply Continue to
Outstrip Demand?’ As the world’s dairy markets become more and more interlinked
and world commodity dairy prices become more globalised, supply and demand also
becomes more globalised, with events on one side of the world having an impact
on the other. Recent studies suggest that world demand for dairy products will
exceed supply in the medium to long term. Is there any evidence of this
yet?
Email Carolyn Moore for bookings info: carolyn@dairyindustrynewsletter.co.uk
Confirmed speakers so far include Eric Meyer
(Highground, US), Patrick Müller (Müller UK), Jukka Likitalo (Eucolait), Nick
Saphir (OMSCo, UK), Torsten Hemme (IFCN, Germany), James Neville (Volac, UK).
Yeo Valley launches
conventional direct supply contract (25th January 2019)
Yeo Valley is recruiting its own
direct conventional milk pool with milk going into its Blagdon and Cannington
processing facilities destined for own label yoghurts for the majority if
the UK’s major retailers.
The contract and recruitment is a
partnership with First Milk who are administering the contract and this will
certainly be of interest to farmers within the Somerset and Devon and Dorset
Borders
It appears to be a premium
contract along with a a floor price feature offering protection in the form of
a minimum price guarantee of not less that the average www.milkprices.com monthly price of a basket involving Arla members, Muller
direct and First Milk Midlands which is a fairly strong floor price.
The initial requirements are
believed to be circa 20 million litres and our info suggests some of this was
signed up this week only days after the launch, First Milk are the guys to
contact if anyone is interested.
2.03ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Freshways (18th
January 2019)
According to wwwmilkprices.com the 2.03ppl
reduction is split into two parts with a 0.972ppl reduction for December
deliveries and a further 1.058ppl for January deliveries based on Freshways
basket tracker.
The reductions result in a standard liquid
litre milk price of 27.77ppl on January 1st and 28.83ppl based on a
standard manufacturing litre.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st
January (18th January 2019)
This results in a standard liquid litre of
27.5ppl
0.5ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Dale Farm GB but 30p plus is a great
result (18th January 2019)
Dale Farm suppliers to its Cumbrian
processing facility from December 1st were still paid a standard
liquid litre price of 30.14ppl following this latest reduction which is without
doubt one of the leading prices paid on December.
0.5ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheese) – from 1st
February (18th January 2019)
This results in a standard manufacturing
litre price of 28.75ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 28ppl.
0.25ppl
milk price reduction for members of 1st Milk- from February 1st (18th
January 2019)
This results in a standard manufacturing
litre price of 28.43ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 27.5ppl.
GDT
bounces up again by a further 4.2% (18th January 2019)
Tuesdays GDT Auction saw the average all
products price up a further 4.2% which is its 4th consecutive rise
and follows hot on the heels of rises of 2.2%, 1.7% and 2.8%. This is yet more
encouraging news to emphasise the necessity for farmgate milk prices to at
least stabilise from March 1st at the latest.
In less than two months the average price has
now bounced up by 12% from $2727 to average $3057 tonne.
Key movers were
SMP +
10.3% to average $2405 tonne
Butter +
4.6% to average $4262 tonne
Cheddar +
4.2% to average $3504 tonne
WMP +
3.0% to average $2777 tonne
Total tonnage sold 27,909 tonnes. The next
GDT Auction will be held on 6th February.
0.86ppl milk price decrease for
Arla Members
- from 1st December (27th November 2018)
Arla have announced what should be the final
2018 milk price announcement which is a 0.86ppl standard liquid litre milk
price reduction (0.89ppl reduction based on the standard manufacturing litre).
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 30.35ppl and 31.57ppl based on the manufacturing standard litre.
1.72ppl milk price increase for Arla
Organic members - from
1st December (27th November 2018)
An Arla Organic members milk price increase
for liquid of 1.72ppl takes the standard liquid litre price to 42.71ppl and the
1.79ppl manufacturing increase takes the standard manufacturing litre price to
44.43ppl. Both prices exclude the derogation penalty of 3 Euro
cents/litre. Note, this Arla members organic milk price increase only
applies to GB members with mainland Europe Arla members organic milk price
unchanged for December.
0.46ppl backdated rebate for Sainsbury’s
suppliers (16th November 2018)
Sainsbury’s have back-dated a 1st
October additional 0.46ppl increase to its SDDG suppliers following a
recent review of it’s COP model involving family labour as operated by
Kite Consultancy.
Less than two months ago in this bulletin we
featured a news item “Sainsbury’s under attack from its farmer
suppliers”. This followed the retail giants decision to pay its farmers
only 0.6ppl out of a 0.9ppl loss having incorrectly costed Megalac and calf
milk powder in the model at the feed wheat price. Having identified the
error this extra wasn’t backdated and yes Sainsbury’s pocketed the 0.3ppl.
In that same article Ian referred to the
constant dilution of the COP model in ppl terms for family labour and now they
have tried to correct this error.
The big question Sainsbury’s suppliers need
an answer to is why their retailer model is so wrong and requiring
surgery. First the extra on feed and now extra on family labour.
It’s looking like a lot of back-tracking and a flawed/broken model. Time
for some answers and an independent review.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Grahams Dairies (liquid/Scotland) – from 1st
December (16th
November 2018)
This take producers’ standard liquid milk
price to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)
Stand
on December milk price for First Milk members (16th
November 2018)
First Milk have declared their December 1st
milk price much earlier than normal (2nd November) and members will
be pleased to know that the co-op is holding its current price until at least 1st
January 2019.
The First Milk members liquid standard litre
price remains at 28.5ppl and 29.47ppl based on a manufacturing standard
litre. For First Milk’s Haverfordwest
Cheese Group will continue to receive a manufacturing standard litre price of
30.97ppl.
To date we are unaware of any GB hard cheese
producer who has announced a 2018 supplier milk price reduction unlike the
situation liquid processors face.
Freshways
losses are not unique (16th November 2018)
For the year ending December 2017 Freshways
have recorded a pre-tax loss of £4.2m compared to a £1.9m profit in the
previous year. It’s an eye watering
swing of £6.1m in only 12 months.
Freshways bank borrowings were up 28% to £14.8m. Of more concern is the fact Freshways still
has an ongoing HMRC investigation.
Whilst these figures are not good news and
highly unlikely to be reversed in the current year Freshways have significantly
more security and collateral than many others in the same sector. They are by no means expected to be at the
bottom of a pile of liquid processors financial results, which are anticipated
in one or two instances to be grim and potentially end up with one on life
support. Watch this space for further
results between now and the year end.
Cornish
clotted cream to China (16th November 2018)
The name Roddas = Clotted cream and their
luxury product is now heading for China following this week’s Food & Hotel
China exhibition in Shanghai.
Discovery
4 Commercial Van from 2013 (16th November 2018)
It has had Landrover dealer fitted genuine
full 7 seat interior so identical to a normal car. Commercial registered van, so fully vat
reclaimable running costs are business expenses annual road tax around £220 a
year. 96,600 miles. Brand new set
tyre just fitted. Fully valeted. Host of extras. £19,500 + VAT. Location Yorkshire. For further details email
ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
Ian
will be joining a panel at AgriScot next Wednesday – 21st November
at 1pm to 2pm (16th November 2018)
Ian’s contribution is certain to be
enlightening, lively and honest.
Speakers
Rory Christie - Dairy Farmer
Tom Hind - Chief Strategy Officer at AHDB
Roddy McLean - Director of Agriculture, Royal Bank of
Scotland
Ian Potter - Industry Commentator and PIA
GDT continues to fall (6th November 2018)
It’s now 11
consecutive GDT auctions with no upward average price movement. Today’s auction recorded an average price of
US$2851 down a further 2% from the US$2885 recorded 3 weeks ago although SMP
recorded an increase.
Notable movers
were:
Cheddar down 4.6% to average US$3250 tonne
WMP down 2.9% to average US$2655
tonne
Butter down 1.7% to average US$4045
tonne
SMP up 1.2% to average US$1997
tonne
MILK PRICES UP
0.43ppl milk price increase for Waitrose aligned
suppliers – from 1st December (6th
November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 31.85ppl
MILK
PRICES DOWN
Muller
break the log jam with a 1ppl 1st December price cut (6th November 2018)
Given the fact Muller are one of only a few
milk purchasers who remain Voluntary Code compliant they were always set to be
the dam busters and have confirmed a 1ppl price drop for 1st
December, which has come as no surprise to those who study the markets.
The Muller standard liquid litre price for
November 1st is 29.5ppl and from December 1st will be
28.5ppl
Note, whilst Muller are the first GB milk
purchaser to declare a price reduction according to our records back on 30th
April Muller were the first to break the log jam with a 0.75ppl increase for 1st
June, which others followed. So they
were first up and first down. Watch out
for one or two who could be last up and first down!
1ppl
milk price reduction for Glanbia (Cheese) suppliers – from 1st
December (6th November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 27.99ppl and standard manufacturing price
of 29.00ppl
1ppl
milk price reduction for Meadow Food suppliers – from 1st
December (6th November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 28.5ppl
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Pensworth (Liquid) - from 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 28.8ppl
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Woodcocks/Yew Tree Dairy (liquid) - from 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 28.5ppl
MILK
PRICES ON HOLD
Arla
will hold its member’s milk price until 1st December (6th November 2018)
Arla have confirmed there will be no change
in its November 1st Milk price at 31.21ppl based on the standard
liquid litre and 32.37ppl on a standard manufacturing litre
Wyke
Farms (Cheese) will hold suppliers prices until at least 1st January
2019 (6th November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 29.65ppl and standard manufacturing price
of 30.69ppl
Lactalis
(AKA The Fresh Milk Company) will hold suppliers prices until at least 1st
January 2019 (6th
November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 29.00ppl and standard manufacturing price
of 30.03ppl
South
Caernarfon Creameries (Cheese) will hold suppliers prices until at least 1st
January 2019 (6th
November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 29.55ppl and standard manufacturing price
of 30.52ppl
Pattemores
Dairy (liquid) will hold suppliers milk price until at least 1st
January 2019 (6th
November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 29.5ppl and standard manufacturing price of
30.47ppl
Wensleydale
Creamery (Cheese) will hold suppliers milk price until 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 29.5ppl and standard manufacturing price of
30.45ppl
Barber’s (Cheese) will hold suppliers milk price
until at least 1st January 2019 (6th
November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 29.58ppl and standard manufacturing price
of 30.68ppl
Grahams (Liquid) still to declare its 1st
December milk price position (6th November
2018)
Paynes Dairies (Liquid) still to declare its 1st
December milk price positon (6th November
2018)
First Milk (Cheese) will hold members’ milk price
until 1st December (6th
November 2018)
This results in a
standard liquid litre milk price of 28.9ppl and standard manufacturing price of
29.47ppl
Spot Milk – for
those who are interested spot milk is trading at 24ppl (6th
November 2018)
For Sale - 2 x Merlin Robotic Milking Cates (6th November 2018)
In excellent
working order complete with milk conductivity sensing and recording, automatic
plant washing and auto cow identification. Adapted for Jerseys, could be
converted for HF.
Fullwood Q3 vacuum pumping
outfit and electric motor suitable for above.
Dry running compressed air
outfit suitable for above.
Shuttle milk sampling system
for NMR recording suitable for Fullwood or Lely robots x 2.
Stainless steel water heater.
Milk plate coolers x 2.
Bulk milk tank 5000 litre with A.P.V valve to
allow auto milk transfer from robots.
For sale due to unforeseen circumstances
For any further details contact rm.cf.joyce@btinternet.com
Arla
stand on with its producer price for November 1st at 31.21ppl (31st
October 2018)
Arla have confirmed there will be no change
in its November 1st milk price at 31.21ppl based on the standard
liquid litre and 32.37ppl on a standard manufacturing litre
Muller
break the log jam with a 1ppl 1st December price cut (31st
October 2018)
Given the fact Muller are one of only a few
milk purchasers who are Voluntary Code compliant they were always set to be the
dam busters and today have confirmed a 1ppl price drop for 1st
December, which has come as no surprise to those who study the markets.
During the next day or two it’s a near
certainty a heap of milk purchasers, particularly those in the liquid middle
ground area, will follow Muller with 1st December price cuts and you
wouldn’t rule out the odd cheeky and desperate milk buyer even cutting producer
prices from 1st November which would cause a stir!!
The Muller standard liquid litre price for
November 1st is 29.5ppl and from December 1st will be
28.5ppl
0.21ppl
milk price increase for Freshways suppliers- from 1st
October (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (17th
October 2018)
This takes producers liquid standard litre
price to 29.8ppl and is tipped to be the last GB price increase of 2018 and in
the top 3 liquid prices from the league table below.
Fonterra
revises its forecast milk price down by up to 1.88ppl equivalent (17th
October 2018)
Due to higher global milk supplies,
particularly in Europe and the US, Fonterra has reduced its forecast farm gate
milk price for the current 2018/2019 year from $6.75 per kg milk solids
(25.32ppl) to $6.25 to $6.50 (23.44ppl to 24.38ppl)
The CEO of Fonterra commented “Global demand
is simply not matching current increases in supply”
GDT
clocks up its 10th consecutive fall (17th
October 2018)
Yesterday’s GDT recorded its 10th
consecutive average price fall all though this latest fall was only slight at
-0.3% with the all products average price falling from US$2901 tonne to US$2885
tonne, the lowest average price recorded since October 2016.
Notable movers were:-
Cheddar down
1.8% to average US$3404 tonne
WMP down
0.9% to average US$2729 tonne
SMP no
change US$1977 tonne
Butter +
2.4% to average US$4114 tonne
October 1st runners and riders league table
- September milk prices shown in brackets (17th October 2018)
Liquid Manufacturing
Standard
litre Standard litre
Arla Co-op Members 31.21 (30.16) 32.47 (31.38)
Crediton Dairy 30.00
(30.00) -
Freshways 29.80
(29.59)
Wyke Farms 29.65 (29.65) 30.69
(30.69)
Barbers 29.58
(29.58) 30.68 (30.68)
South Caernarfon
Creameries 29.55 (29.55) 30.52 (30.52)
Wensleydale
Creamery (Cheese) 29.50 (29.50) 30.45 (30.45)
Payne’s 29.50
(29.50) -
Meadow Foods 29.50
(29.50) -
Yew Tree Dairies 29.50
(29.50) -
Belton 29.50
(29.50) 30.25 (30.25)
Muller 29.50
(29.50) -
Dairy Crest
Davidstow 29.32
(29.32) 30.40 (30.40)
Fresh Milk Company
(Lactalis) 29.00 (29.00) 30.03 (30.03)
Glanbia 28.99
(28.99) 30.00 (30.00)
First Milk Co-op
Members 28.50
(28.50) 29.47 (29.47)
Arla Direct 28.75
(28.00) -
Joseph Heler
(Cheese)
CORRECTION (17th October 2018)
In the last
bulletin we incorrectly suggested that First Milk were the only buyer to stand
on for October. This was a big error as
can be seen above where 13 out of 17 stood on for October 1st.
Arla
launches its UK360 programme standards with Aldi support (17th
October 2018)
Following a 6 month trial involving 79
farmers Arla have launched their UK360 programme, which is a new set of higher
standards than the basic Red Tractor Standards, which encompass the best on
farm practice for animal welfare, animal health, people/staff development,
environmental and natural resources, community engagement as well as economic
resilience and reinvestment.
Aldi is the first retailer to sign up to the
new standards and ongoing discussions are understood to be at an advanced stage
with other Arla customers. Aldi will pay a premium to a named and selected
group of Arla members as part of the Aldi Dairy Farm Partnership in return for
these farmers delivering the higher standards at farm level.
More on this in Ian’s next Dairy Farmer
article but it’s certainly a very different approach to what has become the
norm of retailers setting the farm standards.
Note, Arlagarten will continue to set the
baseline standards for all Arla members with UK360 linked to retailers and food
service customers’ appetite to come on board and pay a premium to those farmers
who can and want to help protect the industry and retailer brands by adopting
the 360 standards.
First
Milk unveils there initiatives, including a 13th payment (17th
October 2018)
Business at First Milk continues to make
positive steps forward and today the co-op has announced three member
initiatives/changes.
1.
Capital
contribution targets will be frozen at members’ current level meaning members
who want to expand will no longer be compelled to fund increased capital
contributions.
2.
The
introduction of an annual 13th payment from April 2019.
This 13th
payment will commence from April 2019 at 0.25ppl and will be paid in April 2020
but adjusted accordingly to each member’s capital target. For example, if a member has 100% of their
capital target they will receive the full 0.25ppl. If they are at 200% they will receive 0.5ppl
(the maximum) conversely if they are 50% of target they will only receive
0.125ppl.
3.
Transparent
member share trading from December 2018 via the Asset Match platform, which
will particularly benefit retired members and be free to use.
Muller
has finished its integration with the Dairy Crest Liquid Business (17th
October 2018)
Muller has announced completion of Britain’s
largest ever dairy integration following its acquisition of the Dairy Crest Liquid
business which it claims gives it a 25% share of Britain’s 12.4 billion litre
farm gate milk business (3.1billion litres) making them number 2 to Arla who
process 3.8 billion litres (31%).
The two businesses process 56% of all
Britain’s milk.
First
Milk winners of its new Responsible Farming Awards (17th
October 2018)
First Milk are upping the stakes on farm
assurance recognising their highest achieving members with awards for Animal,
Environment and People categories.
Alan Conway, Northumberland won the Animal
category for on farm improvements to animal welfare.
Collingthwaite Farm, Nottinghamshire won the
Environment category.
The Pritchard’s from Fishguard and Maughans
Farm, Cumbria were joint winners of the People award.
FOR SALE – 1962 Fordson Super Major on original RF60 Buff Log Book (17th October 2018)
It’s Ian who is selling this on Ebay Item
number 273504226468 – ends this Sunday – see link below:
For Sale - 2 x Merlin Robotic Milking Cates (17th October 2018)
In excellent
working order complete with milk conductivity sensing and recording, automatic
plant washing and auto cow identification. Adapted for Jerseys, could be
converted for HF.
Fullwood Q3 vacuum pumping
outfit and electric motor suitable for above.
Dry running compressed air
outfit suitable for above.
Shuttle milk sampling system
for NMR recording suitable for Fullwood or Lely robots x 2.
Stainless steel water heater.
Milk plate coolers x 2.
Bulk milk tank 5000 litre with A.P.V valve to
allow auto milk transfer from robots.
For sale due to unforeseen circumstances
For any further details contact rm.cf.joyce@btinternet.com
1.07ppl milk price
increase for Tesco/TSDG aligned producers – from 1st November (2nd
October 2018)
This increase arises as a result of Promars review of the annual Tesco
cost tracker figures as budgeted to 31st March 2019. This increases
the cost of production from 30.17ppl to 31.24ppl.
Variable costs 18.15ppl
Overhead costs 11.22ppl
Depreciation 1.87ppl
31.24ppl
0.75ppl milk price
increase for Arla direct suppliers – from October 1st (2nd October 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 28.75ppl and
based on a manufacturing standard litre 29.96ppl.
Muller stand on price
for a second consecutive month for November (2nd
October 2018)
Mullers 29.5ppl liquid standard litre price paid on October deliveries
will continue for all deliveries in November.
First Milk stand on
price for a second consecutive month for October 1st (2nd October 2018)
First Milk members 28.5ppl standard liquid litre price on September
deliveries and based on a manufacturing standard litre 29.47ppl will continue
in October. First Milk, according to our records, are the only GB processor to
stand on for October deliveries.
Barbers stand on price
for the third consecutive month (2nd
October 2018)
Barbers (Cheese) 30.68ppl standard manufacturing litre and 29.8ppl on a
liquid standard litre price paid on September and October deliveries will
continue for all deliveries in November to make it three months in a row.
The milk price for Barbers producers over base litres for September has
reduced by 1.34ppl to 29.84ppl.
Dairy Crest and DCD gain
top marks for milk price stability into 2019 (2nd
October 2018)
Reporting that Dairy Crest’s Davidstow milk for cheese producer price
for November will remain at 30.4ppl based on a manufacturing standard litre and
29.32ppl on liquid would normally be of passing interest and more or less
falling into line with others.
However, this stand on floor price has been guaranteed until 1st
February 2019, which is both a surprise and very welcome for which credit
should be given to Dairy Crest and DCD for agreeing this move.
Dairy Crest increased its manufacturing standard litre milk price to
30.4ppl (liquid 29.32ppl) from 1st August then from 1st September
introduced a 0.5ppl winter supplement to take the manufacturing price to
30.9ppl and liquid to 29.82ppl. This latest move results in Dairy Crest
Suppliers benefitting from 6 months of price stability at the enhanced
manufacturing rate of 30.9ppl.
GDT Auction Prices fall
again for the 9th Consecutive time (2nd
October 2018)
Todays GDT Auction has fallen for the 9th Consecutive time
and everyone hopes it turns the corner soon.
Total quantity sold today 41,981 tonnes to average US $2901 tonne (-1.9%)
Notable prices at today’s auction were:
Butter down 5.9% to average
US $4016 tonne
WMP down 1.2% to average US
$2753 tonne
Cheddar down 1.2% to average US
$3468 tonne
SMP down 0.3% to average US
$1982 tonne
The Outlook (2nd
October 2018)
Stand on prices are now mainstream particularly for November deliveries
unless you supply Arla who are still increasing producer prices for October.
As stated last week wholesale markets are under pressure with
particularly the cream and butter price in decline, which AHDB report fell by
£330 (butter) and £100 (bulk cream) in September. The FCStoneMilkprices.com
UKMFE forward price curve has now recorded its 6th consecutive drop
with this month (October) having recorded a 5.24ppl drop in that 6 week period.
Against these prices SMP nudged up £30 tonne and mild cheddar prices for
September were unchanged but the direction is regrettably but firmly south.
It’s now a case that any holds/stand on milk prices for November
onwards should be considered a favourable announcement. That’s until someone breaks rank which almost
seems inevitable will be in 2018 rather than 2019.
2018 SFP Exchange rate
confirmed at 0.89281 (2nd October 2018)
This is a fraction lower (0.2%) than the 2017 rate of 0.89470 which
means the RPA payment per entitlement is likely to be very similar to last
year.
Volvo 8 Ton Timber
Harvester For Sale in Scotland with a stroke head (2nd October 2018)
Fully guarded, including bullet proof Marguard windscreen and built
by Caledonian Forestry Services Ltd only 3 years ago. Reason for sale is because the family have
acquired a bigger capacity machine.
If interested or you require further information or photographs please
email angus@kirkside.net
or call Angus 07794 623 975.
Ian and Carole need your help to raise as
much money as possible for the chances for Children Charity Buttle UK (www.buttleuk.org) (2nd October 2018)
Background
- Back in 2015 Ian & Carole travelled to New Zealand and joined the
Pork Pie Charity Run (www.porkpie.co.nz) in a classic Mini and raised
£6,600 for charity. In 2017 the intrepid duo “squeezed” behind the wheel
again and drove Ian’s 1963 Mini Cooper S to Rotterdam for a weekend to
raise money in the 20th and final Regis Ladies Classic Car
Tour. They scooped the Award for the team who raised the most money for two
Cancer Charities raising over £3,000.
Later this month they are off again this time to
Italy with The Italian Job www.italianjob.com
Carole & Ian are joining classic MINI
enthusiasts from all over the UK, Europe and further afield for a charity
fund-raising trip of a lifetime, following in the tyre tracks of Michael
Caine’s 1969 film, through the Swiss Alps, across Italy and even onto the
rooftop test track of the world famous Fiat factory building in Turin.
Since 1990 The Italian Job Event has already raised
over £3 million for children’s charities and this year the beneficiary will be
the Childrens charity Buttle UK. Buttle
UK plan to use the monies raised to give 1000 children a bed to sleep in. The Charity estimate that over 400,000
children in the UK do not have a bed of their own which leads to children
lacking sleep, affecting concentration and therefore academic achievement.
It is a fantastic cause and Ian and Carole will be
grateful for any donations.
100% of your donations will go to the Charity, as
Ian & Carole are once again self funding all their own expenses, entry
fees, fuel and accommodation.
If you can dig deep and find a few spare pounds it
will all be very much appreciated. It’s not a competition who can give
the most but if you do value this FREE regular
Dairy bulletin and Ian’s monthly Dairy Farmer article (now 26 years and
still going) then please give a little to show your appreciation.
The event is not a charity challenge, but more of a
non-competitive social week with like minded classic Mini enthusiasts aiming to
have a tour at the same time as raising money for a great UK Childrens
charity.
So please sponsor Ian & Carole where you can,
and don't forget you can increase the amount you donate with Gift Aid
(individuals only, not companies).
Please donate on line by clicking on: https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/englishbulldogsontour
OR
Send a cheque(s), made payable to either:
“Buttle UK “
Ian’s target is to raise £2,500 or more
Thank you all in
advance
News
A matching scheme to boost fundraising
efforts. An anonymous donor
of Buttle UK’s has offered to match, pound for pound, the total funds raised by
the 5 most successful jobbers in this year’s rally, up to a maximum of
£30,000!!
So for example Ian
& Carole raise £2,500 and were one of the top 5 fundraising totals our
contribution to Buttle UK’s Chances for Children campaign would actually be
worth £5000! The 5 winners will be announced at the Reunion Dinner March 2019
but for sure Ian plans to be in that top 5 with your help.
Arla have announced a 1.09ppl milk price increase compromising of a
0.9ppl base price increase plus 0.19ppl quarterly currency adjustment.
The resulting 1st October standard litre price is 31.21ppl and
based on the manufacturing standard litre is 32.47ppl, which, if anyone plays
milk processor Top Trumps they will struggle to beat Arla in 2018.
The Arla UK organic milk price remains unchanged whilst it increases in
Sweden (3 Euro Cents) and Denmark (2 Euro Cents). Arla UK organic farmers will, however, receive
the 0.19ppl currency adjustment.
For Arla’s UK organic members the standard liquid litre price is 40.99ppl
and based on the manufacturing standard litre is 42.64ppl.
This latest increase certainly puts the cat amongst the pigeons and comes
at a time when most milk purchasers were hoping Arla would stand on possibly
even or cut its price.
1.2ppl
additional forecasted 13th payment for Arla members (25th September
2018)
As it’s calculated a further 1.2ppl is pencilled in by Arla as a 13th
payment, which whilst still to be approved by Arla’s BOR and depends on the
current business performance continuing until March 2019, will be additional
money to be added to an already healthy looking Arla member milk price.
0.9ppl milk
price increase for Sainsburys aligned suppliers – from 1st October (25th September 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.39ppl but see
below for trouble at Sainsburys!
0.57ppl
increase for Marks & Spencer’s (Muller aligned) - from 1st October (25th September 2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre milk price to 31.41ppl
Milk price
outlook is not good (25th September 2018)
All eyes are now focussed on Muller this weekend and whether it confirms
any price movement from November 1st.
Ian’s moles suggest a Muller price cut is very much on the cards, which
is not what Muller or any dairy farmers will want to hear. Given Muller’s 1st October liquid
standard litre price is 29.5ppl and Arla’s is 31.21ppl the gap is now an
unexplainable 1.71ppl. Also note in
today’s announcement Arla state “The outlook for milk price for the coming
months remains stable”, indicating the possibility of stand on or close to
stand on prices depending on market movements in the next month.
Muller farmers will be praying for a November stand on but it’s looking
challenging and if Muller drop the dam will burst as price cuts rain in for
November and December.
Anything Ian writes will not change the fundamentals, so don’t shoot the
messenger.
GDT prices continue to drop, futures have been falling for the past 5
consecutive weeks, UK production is up, German production +2.8% and imports of
cheese from Ireland in 2018 are at eye-watering record levels. Arla’s increase is great news but stand on
prices for November should not be criticised.
GDT Auction
prices continue to slide south for the 8th consecutive auction (25th September
2018)
Key movers in last Tuesday’s GDT auction were:
Cheddar down 3.5% to average US$3503 tonne
WMP down 1.8% to average US$2768 tonne
SMP down 1.1% to average US$1980 tonne
Butter down 0.1% to average US$4270 tonne
Average down 1.3% to average US2934 tonne with 39,143 tonnes sold.
This means in the last 8 GDT auctions the average price has dropped by
close to 20% to prices last seen in October 2016.
Sainsburys
under attack from its farmer suppliers (25th September 2018)
Sainsburys farmers in the North of England and Scotland are furious with
the retailer to the point several are claiming they are immediately seeking a
new milk buyer and want to exit the Sainsburys Dairy Development Group because
“its heads Sainsburys win and tails its dairy farmers lose.” On a practical note finding a new milk buyer
in Scotland looks challenging!
Sainsburys are half way through a series of regional farmer meetings,
which haven’t gone according to plan and parachuting any spin doctors and head
honchos in hasn’t placated some of their loyal switched on farmers.
The problem is if cost savings of 2p are achieved Sainsburys intend to
pocket the entire 2ppl with no sharing or benefit of the rewards to their
farmers. This means efficient farmers
are victims of their own success which is unfair and unacceptable.
In addition, the Sainsburys farm units have, on average, expanded but the
fixed amount added in for family labour at 1.44 head at the national
agricultural workers pay is being constantly diluted in the ppl COP as on farm
production increases. One simple
solution is to change the model to a ppl labour cost but that doesn’t suit
Sainsburys because it will cost them money.
The way the Sainsburys COP model deals with bought in feed is also under
attack, particularly from its 20 or so Scottish farmers. The cost of feed per tonne is that charged by
the Sainsburys buying groups price for all feed, however, Scottish farmers
can’t buy their feed at that price and are not part of the group buying.
Either the Scottish farmers feed price should be factored in to the model
or alternatively consideration to a Scottish regional Sainsburys COP will have
to be considered. One Sainsburys farmer
claims his actual COP is 4ppl above the model.
The final straw has been the recognition that for years the Sainsburys
COP model has costed calf milk powder and Megalac in at the feed wheat price,
which Sainsburys have held their hands up and agreed to correct.
The difference in costings is now recognised by Sainsburys as amounting
to 0.9ppl, which farmers have lost.
As further proof that Sainsburys don’t really care about their farmers
COP they have decided that of the 0.9ppl deficit farmers will be given 0.6ppl
but Sainsburys will retain 0.3ppl and, at the moment, there are no moves by
Sainsburys to back-date any of the missing money to its farmers to reflect the
shoddy calculations in previous years.
The Sainsburys farmers have had to scrutinise the costings themselves and
the end result is, after 11 years of working with British farmers, Sainsburys
appear to be on a suicide mission to wreck all the trust they have built up.
Some Sainsburys farmers no longer trust the COP model, no longer trust
Sainsburys and generally feel very disappointed and let down. All they are asking for is fair treatment
from the retail giant.
Back in 2015, Sainsburys took out large adverts in The Times, Telegraph,
Mail, Express and Star where the strapline was:
“At Sainsburys we support our British fresh milk farmers, does your
supermarket?”
followed by:
“We believe the farmers
who produce our milk should also make a living.”
These were fantastic supportive statements, which some of its Scottish
and North of England farmers now believe to be false in 2018.
Do Sainsburys still “want to work
with (its dairy) farmers to offer long term relationships with stable
profitable prices?”
The jury is out on this question but unless Sainsburys attitude towards
its 250 or so remaining SDDG farmers changes they look set to lose even more
dissatisfied producers. The situation is
best described as “fragile”.
Dairy
Crest’s profits look good for the first 6 months (25th September
2018)
Dairy Crest have announced a trading update for the last 6 month and
anticipate profit for the period to be above the same period 12 months earlier
as well as reporting a reduction in nett debt.
Dairy Crest’s interim results will be published on November 7th.
First Milk (25th September
2018)
Have published their financial results for the year to 31st
March 2018. The key numbers are:
Members’ Capital Investment up £2.1m to £75.5m
Turnover up 22% to £252.7m (2017 - £206.5m)
Nett Bank Borrowings up 16% to £44.9m (2017 - £38.6m)
Nett Profit Down 47% to £3.2m (2017 - £6m)
Total Group Capital Reserves up 25% to 27.4m (2017 - £22m)
First Milk might still be in the bottom handful of milk purchaser’s
standard litre milk price league tables but at least they have significantly
narrowed the price gap and strengthened their position, in recent years. Significant cost, especially overhead cost,
has been stripped out under the captaincy of Shelagh Hancock and this reflects
in the numbers.
First Milk’s membership milk has halved in recent years but for sure
First Milk member moans are almost unheard of now and it’s an indisputable fact
that with no sales and marketing team, due to the long term deal struck with Ornua,
their focus is on making consistently high quality cheese with minimal
downgrades and they appear to be succeeding at it.
Freshways
wind up its Dairystix business (25th September 2018)
Freshways have wound up their UHT Dairystix business directly affecting
17 employees. The Dairystix brand was
launched in 2007 but by 2012 was in administration before it was
resurrected. Freshways took the business
on in 2014. Further details to follow
but the numbers rumoured will leave some creditors with a migraine.
Construction
of a 30 million litre dairy farming commences (25th
September 2018)
Construction of an eye watering 30 million litre fully integrated dairy
has started in Russia and will cost circa $633 million (£484 million) with
funds coming from a group who are recognised as the largest Vietnamese
agricultural investors.
This is the first of five farms in the pipeline with construction of all
five to commence by 2020.
The farm/unit will be fully integrated from the cow to the distribution
of dairy products and will house 50,000 cows at 5,800 litres/cow or 30,000 at
just under 10,000 litres a cow. Now
that’s what you call big!
Russia’s goal is to be self sufficient in dairy, replacing all dairy
imports, within the next 8 years, which translates to the necessity to increase
domestic production by 25%.
Dairy
Industry Woman of the Year Award (25th September 2018)
Jeanette Prince was presented with the Dairy Industry Woman of the Year
National Award at last week’s presentation dinner.
Jeanette is a Staffordshire organic farmer supplying Arla. She is also a founder member of the
Staffordshire Women’s Farming Union, Vice President of Staffordshire YFC and
has devoted many days to promoting and progressing the UK dairy industry.
The Regional Award was presented to Ceri Cryer a farmer and cheese maker
from Wiltshire who under the Brinkworth dairy brand sells her products to local
markets and at London Farmers’ Markets.
FOR
SALE- 2 Lely A4 Robots – Location Cumbria (25th September 2018)
Installed in January 2012, regularly serviced
& updated, washed out regularly since the cows were sold. Reason for the sale is the farm has been
sold.
They come with the facility to feed liquid as
well as cake, which is automatically calculated. No weigh cells but concrete
work already installed. Sold along with
computer, 130 collars, exit gates and two milk recording samplers.
For further details email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
WANTED
BY IAN (25th September 2018)
14 tonne JCB ditching bucket with circa 60mm pin fixings.
Note, not a 3 CX size this is for a proper JCB 814 digger not a Fisher
Price digger! If you know where there is
one please email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
0.85ppl
milk price rise for suppliers to Pensworth Dairy – from 1St
October (4th September 2018)
This takes producers liquid standard litre
price to 29.8ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – 1st
September (4th September 2018)
This takes members’ standard liquid litre
price to 29.5ppl and standard manufacturing litre price to 30.45ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to First Milk – from 1st
September (4th
September 2018)
This takes members’ standard liquid litre
price to 28.5ppl and standard manufacturing litre price to 29.47ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Payne’s Dairies – from 1st
September (4th September 2018)
This takes members’ standard liquid litre
price to 29.5ppl.
AMPE
and MCVE climb higher (4th September 2018)
AMPE is up +4.4% from July to 33.6ppl and
MCVE + 0.6% to 33.6ppl (see above). In
addition, AHDB Dairy report that Cream income is now worth 13.09ppl to a liquid
processor.
During August AHDB report increases in
wholesale prices for cream, butter and SMP all mainly weather driven, which is
making traders nervous, especially over possible declines in winter milk
production which all farmers are anticipating and by the time the trade realise
its happening nothing they do will reverse the decline!
AHDB are anticipating further small farm gate
milk price increases up to and including November based on the current milk
market value (a weighted average of AMPE & MCVE). That may be what the
number crunching suggests but it’s certainly not what a large number of GB milk
processors are budgeting for with most aiming to hold prices.
Arla
plans to pay out its 2018 profits to its farmers (4th
September 2018)
In a welcome, if not surprise, move Arla has
confirmed it proposes to pay its entire 2018 profits to its farmers recognising
many face serious financial pain as a result of the drought. The proposal will
be put to the Arla Board of Representatives at its October meeting.
If Arla’s nett profit target of 2.8% to 3.2%
of revenue is achieved the numbers indicate a potential supplementary payment
of circa £20,000 for a 1 million litre producer, however, this needs to be
split into a circa £9000 as a 13th payment producers are already
entitled to receive so the additional money paid out will be around £11,000 per
farmer.
The total payment will likely be approved in February
2019 when Arla’s end of year results are known.
It’s highly likely this proposal has been
instigated by the Danish and Swedish Arla farmers who have both clout and face
some serious financial additional costs as a result of the drought.
The point to ponder is whether
Arla executives are now assuming (possibly planning) that on October 1st,
November 1st and December 1st it will be a farm gate milk
price hold stand on with little, if any, chance of further farm gate milk
prices increases
Straw
exiting GB and hay going into power stations (4th September 2018)
Ian has spoken to two people who have
confirmed that significant quantities of straw have already been delivered to
Iceland, Denmark and Belgium with a further enquiry to deliver to Norway and
demand from all four countries is very strong.
In addition, one haulier is taking hay into a
power station due to the shortage of straw.
Anyone playing the straw market is unlikely to have budgeted for straw
going to Iceland in curtain sided trucks on back loads.
36%
profit slump for European giant milk processor Friesland Campina (FC) (4th
September 2018)
Friesland Campina’s half year results show a
whopping 35.6% year on year profit slump.
Friesland Campina previously announced the
early 2018 closure of two processing operations in France, both of which have
severely influenced these latest half year figures. The closures were announced a year ago as
part of Friesland Campina’s wholesale transformation scheme.
Arla
UK’s half years results (4th September 2018)
Arla’s half year UK revenue increased by 2.3%
to £961million with nett profit 2.2% versus 2.1% in 2017.
Arla’s 2018 financial year nett profit of
2.8% to 3.2% is considered achievable.
UK
secures £240million deal with China (4th September 2018)
China has agreed a five year deal to import
UK dairy products worth an estimated £240 million
Farm
Foods 40ppl offer opens up a Pandora’s Box (4th September 2018)
In the last bulletin we asked readers to
crack the milk code for the supplier of incredibly cheap milk on sale by Farm
Foods at 40ppl!
Numerous readers collected the Potter
equivalent of a Crackerjack pencil and all identified the supplier as Payne’s
Dairies.
What Ian wasn’t prepared for were details of
allegedly how Farm Foods have played out their recent October milk supply
tender.
The three incumbent suppliers to Farm Foods
today are Payne’s, Medina and Grahams Dairies (Scotland). Allegedly once Farm Foods
received new tenders from Medina and Payne’s they served notice to terminate
all three supply contracts with the suggestion that one of the big two GB
liquid processors was involved and had successfully tendered and taken them all
by storm as sole supplier to Farm Foods with a table topping price.
Whether this was 100% accurate is debatable
but for sure when three are given notice one or more is likely to bite back and
drop their prices even lower than what is rumoured to already be an eye
watering price of under 35ppl.
Reports indicate the outcome is that Medina
retains its region and Payne’s retains its region and takes Grahams region in
Scotland. So the losers, if you can call
it that, are Grahams Dairies and the winners are certainly Farm Foods.
This certainly appears to have been a
particularly aggressive tender and one processor called it a blood bath another
said it was tactical Farm Foods tendering.
Payne’s have certainly gained more volume and
highly likely for less revenue in ppl. Why is Payne’s so particularly keen to
build its total sales volumes?
That leaves one question? Who’s the villain and who’s the hero in this
process?
September 1st Milk Price league based on
www.milkprices.com
standard litres (August 1st prices in brackets)
(4th September 2018)
The liquid standard litre 4% bf, 3.3%
protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million litres a year on EODC
but before seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing, B price additions,
capital retentions or annual incentive schemes. The manufacturing
standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of
4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.
Liquid Manufacturing
Standard
litre Standard litre
Arla Co-op Members 30.16 (30.16) 31.38 (31.38)
Crediton Dairy 30.00
(29.00) -
Wyke Farms 29.65
(29.15) 30.69 (30.18)
Barbers 29.58
(29.08) 30.68 (30.16)
South Caernarfon
Creameries 29.55 (28.81) 30.52 (29.78)
Wensleydale
Creamery (Cheese) 29.50 (29.00) 30.45 (29.95)
Payne’s 29.50
(29.00) -
Meadow Foods 29.50
(28.50) -
Yew Tree Dairies 29.50
(28.50) -
Belton 29.50
(28.50) 30.25 (29.25)
Muller 29.50
(28.00) -
Dairy Crest
Davidstow 29.32
(29.32) 30.40 (30.40)
Fresh Milk Company
(Lactalis) 29.00 (29.00) 30.03 (30.03)
Glanbia 28.99
(28.03) 30.00 (29.00)
First Milk Co-op
Members 28.50
(28.00) 29.47 (28.95)
Arla Direct 28.00
(28.00) -
Joseph Heler
(Cheese) (Answers
on a postcard)
Information request on Halloumi (4th
September 2018)
Do you know anyone
in the UK who producers Halloumi? If you do please email
ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
FOR
SALE- 2 Lely A4 Robots – Location Cumbria (4th September 2018)
Installed in January 2012, regularly serviced
& updated, washed out regularly since the cows have been sold. Reason for the sale is the farm has been
sold.
They come with the facility to feed liquid as
well as cake, which is automatically calculated. No weigh cells but concrete
work already installed, Sold along with computer, 130 collars, exit gates and
two milk recording samplers.
For further details email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
ENGLAND V USA (4th
September 2018)
Venue: Wembley
Stadium
Date: Thursday
15th November – KO 19:45 hours
Up to 4 tickets available at £10.00 per ticket
discount.
Email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk, if you are interested.
1.5ppl increase for suppliers to Grahams Dairies, Scotland – from 1st
September (21st August
2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.5ppl.
1ppl increase for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1st
September (21st August
2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.5ppl and based on the www.milkprices.com manufacturing standard litre price of
29.88ppl (Chester) & 29.75ppl (Cumbria).
0.5ppl increase for suppliers to Wyke Farms (Cheese) – from 1st
September (21st August
2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.65ppl and the www.milkprices.com manufacturing standard litre price to
30.69ppl.
0.5ppl increase for suppliers to Pattemores – from 1st
September (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (21st August 2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.5ppl and the www.milkprices.com manufacturing standard litre price to
30.47ppl.
Arla members milk price stand on for September @ 30.16ppl/31.38ppl (21st
August 2018)
Arla have announced a stand on milk price from
September 1st for both its organic and conventional suppliers.
The standard liquid litre price for August and
September will be 30.16ppl. and for TSDG farmers 31.58ppl with Morrisons
farmers receiving 31.14ppl. Based on a
manufacturing standard litre the price
remains at 31.38ppl.
With only First Milk left to declare its
September milk price once it’s confirmed we will pull together and publish a 1st
September standard litre milk price league table.
GDT auction results continue to head South (21st
August 2018)
Below are the last two GDT auction results,
including today’s, which come as a warning that internationally prices are no
longer levelling out. All prices quoted
are in US$. Note, today’s tonnage was
down by 6% and the number of bidders down by 17.3% (33 bidders).
7th
August 21st
August (today)
Average Price $3136 $3044/tonne (-3.6%)
Quantity Sold 34076
tonnes 32041 tonnes
(-5.9%)
Number of Bidders 191 158
(-17.3%)
Butter $4802/tonne
(-3.2%) $4392/tonne (-8.5%)
Cheddar $3663/tonne
(-1.3%) $3484/tonne (-4.7%)
WMP $2958/tonne
(-0.1%) $2883/tonne (-2.1%)
SMP $1972/tonne
(-0.3%) $1951/tonne (-1.3%)
Brief Market Outlook (21st August 2018)
The on farm position requires no explanation
it’s set to be a very expensive autumn and winter for many UK dairy farmers
with little chance of production forecasts being achieved given that most are
well into first cut silage and second cut silage is either non-existent or
second class in terms of milk production.
Most processors realise that at current milk
prices coupled with increasing costs production is set to fall.
Generally, EU and world wholesale markets are
cooling off in terms of butter, cheese and powder. The same is reflected in futures
pricing. GB production is now declining with
AHDB dairy reporting that weekly milk deliveries are running at almost 1% below
the equivalent week in 2017.
26.08ppl Fonterra forecast 2017/2018 farm gate milk price (21st
August 2018)
New Zealand co-op Fonterra has revised its
2017/2018 farm gate milk forecast to NZ$6.70 per kg milk solids equivalent to a
UK liquid standard litre price of 26.08ppl.
Note, this is for last year not the current year.
2.67ppl organic milk price reduction for Arla members who utilise a
derogation (21st August 2018)
It’s a hot potato but Arla have confirmed that
any UK organic supplier who utilises a derogation to use non-organic forage,
including those who only use the derogation for young stock, will suffer a
2.67ppl deduction and their milk will be segregated and go into the Arla
conventional pool. Arla’s organic milk
price for September is held at 40.8ppl based on a liquid standard litre and
42.45ppl based on a standard manufacturing litre.
Arla to help distribute Forage Aid for UK farmers (21st August 2018)
Arla is offering logistics support to help
Forage Aid by delivering emergency supplies of animal feed to livestock farmers
during the extreme drought conditions.
Graham Wilkinson talks about why it is
important for farmers to support farmers in these challenging conditions;
"Last year our logistics colleagues did a
fantastic job of supporting Forage Aid by helping them distribute emergency
supplies to farmers impacted by the Cumbrian floods and now we have a very
different threat to our farmers and their livestock due to the extreme drought
conditions. Forage Aid is a fantastic charity and it makes me extremely proud
that a farmer owned business like ours can support other farmers at their time
of need in this way."
Forage Aid is the charity that supports
farmers whose livestock has been affected by an extreme weather event by
providing forage and/or bedding to those in need.
40ppl milk on offer by FarmFoods – Who’s the processor? (21st
August 2018)
A jaw dropping promotion by FarmFoods of 4
litres of whole or semi-skimmed milk for £1.60 has caused a bit of a stir. From the leaflet the code reads like
UKOHO29EC. Two middle ground usual
suspects names are in circulation but rather than setting hares running it
would be good to crack the code and print the name of the processor. If any reader can crack the code please email
Ian (ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk)
1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Grahams
Dairies Scotland – from 1st September (3rd
August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.5ppl
1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Muller – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.5ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Belton
Farm (Cheese) – from 1st September
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price litre to 29.5ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30.25ppl (3rd August 2018)
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Yew Tree
Dairies – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price litre to 29.5ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Glanbia
(Cheese) – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28.99ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30ppl
1ppl milk prices increase for suppliers to Joseph
Heler Cheese – from 1st September (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (3rd August 2018)
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to The Fresh
Milk Company – from 1st August (3rd
August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre 29ppl manufacturing 30.03ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Wensleydale Creamery – from 1st
August (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre 29ppl manufacturing 29.95ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Pensworth – from 1st September
(3rd August 2018)
This takes
producer’s standard liquid litre 28.95ppl
0.8ppl milk price increase for Payne’s Dairies – from 1st August
(3rd August 2018)
This takes
producer’s standard liquid litre to 29ppl
0.8ppl milk price increase for suppliers and
members of First Milk – from 1st
August (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.95ppl
0.75ppl milk
price increase for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries (Cheese) – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.55ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30.53ppl
0.7ppl milk price increase for Arla direct
suppliers – from 1st August (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and manufacturing 29.19ppl
0.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Barbers
(Cheese) – from 1st September (3rd
August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.58ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30.68ppl
0.5ppl Extreme weather supplement for suppliers to
Dairy Crest Davidstow (cheese) – from 1st
September (3rd August 2018)
This is a
supplement which will be reviewed monthly and is not a price increase but is a
payment to assist supplying farmers who are struggling with the drought and
additional expense.
This means no
increase in milk price so a Dairy Crest Producer will continue to receive
29.32ppl from September 1st based on a standard liquid litre and
30.4ppl based on a standard manufacturing litre.
Paine Partners sell their Meadow Foods share after
less than 2 years ownership (3rd
August 2018)
Their has been no
secret that US based Paine and Partners have been keen to exit their Meadow
Foods investment and have now sold their shares to Exponent a UK private equity
firm after less than two years of buying them from the Pickering and Chantler
families.
At last AHDB production figures confirm reality on
the ground (3rd
August 2018)
Several farmers
have been questioning reports from AHDB claiming UK milk production was not
dropping in July.
One such farmer
stated “How on earth can AHDB Dairy claim on farm production has not dropped
with no grass anywhere, a serious shortage of fodder, following a sh*t spring,
many cattle on full winter rations?”.
Well according to
its latest update production dropped below those of July 2017 with week ending
21st July down 1.2%/day
Arla’s
Organic stance turns sour (3rd August 2018)
Arla’s 30th July statement
concerning its No Stance on organic feed derogations is certainly causing a stir and could soon
turn sour on the European Giant.
The main bone of contention is the words
“Please be aware that Arla’s position is that this (the no stance on utilising
a derogation) will also include exemptions for the feeding of non-organic
forage to dairy young stock”.
So, on the one hand the two organic
certification bodies viz OF&G and the Soil Association are willing to
issues derogations under the EU regulations but Arla are saying that’s not good
enough for us.
Ironically the Soil Association certify Arla
for its organic milk intake!
For the man in the street feeding non-milking
young stock non-organic feed on welfare grounds when fodder is short is unlikely
to be of concern.
Arla may have to revisit this decision because some of its organic
suppliers are clearly unhappy as are the two organic certification Authorities.
It’s a complicated area and includes things like
TB derogations. Question is will Arla stick 2 fingers up and say to O F & G
and the Soil Association stuff your regulations, we are doing our own thing
crisis or no crisis. For some organic
farmers it’s just adding pressure to what’s set to be a very difficult and
extremely expensive Autumn and Winter.
Correction to Ian’s August Dairy Farmer Article (3rd August 2018)
The responses to
this weeks August article was frankly phenomenal, so thankyou for all those who
emailed Ian. However most respondents
supporting my jottings were on the ball in pointing out Ian’ obvious typo when
stated that Germany and the UK have more than 200 million flexitarians. It
should have stated 20 million. Apologies
August 1st Milk Price league based on www.milkprices.com
standard litres (3rd August 2018)
The liquid standard litre 4% bf, 3.3%
protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million litres a year on EODC
but before seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing, B price additions,
capital retentions or annual incentive schemes. The manufacturing
standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of
4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.
Liquid
standard litre Manufacturing
standard litre (cheese)
Arla Co-op members 30.16 31.38
Crediton Dairy 30.00 -
Dairy Crest
Davidstow 29.32 30.4
Wyke Farms 29.15 30.18
Barbers 29.08 30.16
Fresh Milk Company
(lactalis) 29.00 30.03
Wensleydale
Creamery (cheese) 29.00 29.95
Payne’s 29.00 -
South Caernarfon
Creameries 28.81 29.78
Yew Tree Dairies 28.50 -
Belton 28.50 29.25
Meadow Foods 28.50 -
Glanbia 28.03 29.00
Arla Direct 28.00 -
Muller 28.00 -
First Milk Co-op
members 28.00 28.95
Joseph Heler
(cheese)
0.85ppl milk price increase for Arla members – from 1st August
(24th July 2018)
This is a 1 Euro
Cent increase, which equates to 0.85ppl addition to the standard liquid litre
to give a 1st August price of 30.16ppl and a 0.88ppl addition to the
standard manufacturing litre to give 31.38ppl.
No change in
respect of the Arla organic milk price, which remains at 40ppl (liquid) and
40.8ppl (manufacturing)
This increase has
been attributed to the confirmed hot weather, which has impacted negatively on
Arla’s European milk intake.
Arla says no organic feed derogations (24th July 2018)
Arla has decided
not to utilise any milk from UK farms who obtain a derogation to feed
non-organic fodder/feed as a measure to maintain consumer confidence in Arla’s
branded organic products.
It is expected
that derogations will be issued by various authorities very soon as a result of
the exceptionally hot weather, including the UK.
Any farmer who
uses the derogation and feeds non-organic feed will find his or her milk
excluded from Arla’s organic products until six months after the farm returns
to full organic forage. It is
anticipated that from September 1st Arla will have two organic milk
pool prices viz: farmers who continue to feed only organic feed and a lower
price for those who obtain a derogation.
Sadly for some farmers the need to obtain a derogation asap will not be
optional.
First
Milk appoints new Chairman (24th
July 2018)
First Milk has appointed Chris Thomas as
non-executive Chairman to replace Clive Sharpe from 1st August.
Chris has held a number of senior executive
positions in businesses like Tulip UK, St Ivel, PepsiCo and Mars.
First
Milk to invest £6.5million in its Haverfordwest Creamery (24th July 2018)
This will come over the next 2 years and will
boost the sites cheese output and efficiency.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Crediton
Dairy plus 30ppl 2018 guaranteed minimum – from 1st
September (20th July 2018)
Crediton’s latest
1ppl price increase takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 30ppl,
a price which Crediton have committed to hold until at least 31st
December 2018 as a minimum floor price not a maximum.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Pattermores – from 1st August (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (20th July 2018)
0.75ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Pensworth Dairies – from 1st July (20th
July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 27.95ppl
Auction average down another 1.7% (20th July 2018)
Last week’s GDT
auction produced the 4th consecutive average price fall in only 6
weeks with the average achieved down 1.7% to US$3222 to its lowest point in 2018
and hot on the heels of an eye-watering 5% drop only two weeks ago.
Volumes available
were down 4% to 25,454 tonnes and the negative trend is a concern, particularly
for New Zealand dairy farmers.
Notable prices
were:
Butter down 8.1% to average US$4953 tonne
Cheddar down 3.3%
to average US$3596 tonne
SMP up 0.8% to average US$1959 tonne
WMP up 1.5% to average US$2973 tonne
Market Update (20th
July 2018)
The general trend
is still negative.
Butter futures on
the EEX were down 1.43% on the week, which takes the accumulated total drop to
11% in the past 6 weeks.
SMP futures on the
EEX were down 1.63% on the week, which takes the accumulated total drop to 5%
in the past month.
To make matters
worse the value of sterling strengthened against the Euro.
Intervention Sales (20th July 2018)
The EU sold only
2,400 tonnes of its June 2016 SMP stocks this week at prices ranging from €1125
tonne to €1200 tonne (£1,004 to £1,071).
This is a
disappointing result both in terms of tonnage sold and the price achieved
compared to the tender result achieved only a month earlier when 23,532 tonnes
sold (10 x this months) for between €1195 to €1400 (£1,067 to £1,250)
The Commission now
look unlikely to achieve their goal of clearing all remaining Intervention SMP
stocks by the end of 2018. Note, for the
October & November tenders there will be two tenders each month.
Production (20th
July 2018)
EU total milk
production January to April is up 2% year on year.
Denmark saw its May
production the largest on record since quotas were introduced in May 1984. Germany up 3.2% (January to April 2018),
France +3.7%
Glanbia Cheese to build a new 45,000 tonne
Mozzarella factory (20th July 2018)
Glanbia Cheese
have announced plans to build a state of the art 45,000 tonnes per annum
Mozzarella cheese factory in Portlaoise, Co Laois, Central Southern Ireland.
At the moment
Glanbia produce around 90,000 tonnes of Mozarella at two plants one in North
Wales and one in Northern Ireland. So,
if all three plants are operational the new output will represent a 50%
increase in output.
The expectation is
for the new plant to be operational by 2020, subject to planning
permission. It involves an investment of
€130 million (£117 million) creating 78 full time jobs.
Belton Farm announces £1.25 million investment (20th July 2018)
Belton Farm
cheese-makers from Shropshire have announced a significant £1.25m investment
programme to upgrade and upscale its current processing facility. Belton is enjoying sales increases,
particularly with of its Red & White fox as well as its Belton Farm branded
cheeses, both domestically and abroad, particularly in the US market as well as
in Canada, South Africa, Australia and the EU.
In addition,
Belton are seeking to selectively recruit a handful of new local milk suppliers
to join its existing family of 80 supplying farmers.
Arla and Yeo Valley deal is cleared by the CMA (20th July 2018)
The Competition
& Markets Authority (CMA) has given the unconditional green light to the
February 2018 announcement that Arla Foods had agreed terms for a licence to
utilise the Yeo Valley brand for Arla’s organic liquid, cheese and spreads.
Yeo Valley
yoghurts, cream and dairy desserts business will remain under the ownership of
The Mead family. Suppliers to the Coombe
Farms Milk Group will move across to supply Arla.
Arla warns that Brexit could hjt UK dairy consumers
pockets (20th July 2018)
Following a report
“The Impact of Brexit on the UK Dairy Sector” produced by the London School of
Economics, Arla has issued a warning that if the findings in the report prove
to be correct in terms of restricted access to labour and non-tariff barriers,
UK consumers will likely see the availability of butter, yoghurts and cheese
restricted and at higher prices.
The report not
only points to the potential economic consequences of a farm labour shortage
but also in terms of vets, lorry drivers, etc.
The report also
notes the UK has the second largest dairy trade deficit in the world at up to
16% with 98% of the UK’s dairy imports currently originating from the EU and no
doubt a big slug from Arla!
Warble Fly Warning (20th July 2018)
A reader from North Devon
has alerted us to the presence of a significant infestation of warble flies and
the urgent need to be vigilant and take precautions. They even provided a photograph of the
unwelcome beast on a cow, which fortunately had been treated.
If you encounter
warble fly or any other unusual and unwanted pests in this dry spell, please
email us.
1.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Blackmore Vale Farm – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29ppl.
1.25ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Barbers Farmhouse Cheesemakers – from 1st August (9th
July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing price to 30.16ppl and standard liquid litre
price to 29.08ppl. Barbers continue to
maintain a very healthy rolling 12 month pay out over 30ppl (30.08ppl) based on
a manufacturing standard litre with 31.23ppl paid for June milk above 104% of
base milk volume, which is effectively a transparent B milk price.
1.25ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery, Hawes – from 1st
July (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing price to 28.95ppl and based on a standard
liquid price of 28ppl.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers
to Belton Farm (Cheesemakers) – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing price to 29.25ppl and the standard litre
price to 28.5ppl
0.89ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Muller’s Co-operative Dairy Group – from 1st August (9th
July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid price to 28.88ppl
0.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.5ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre 28.88ppl (Chester) and 28.75ppl (Cumbria)
0.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Yew Tree Dairies (AKA Woodcock’s) – from 1st August (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (9th July
2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.5ppl
What are Arla tipped to do for August? (9th July 2018)
Our inside
knowledge that Muller would stand on with its August milk price at 28ppl proved
to be bang on the money and similar reliable intelligence has firmly indicated
that Arla will likely do the same for August and remain at 29.31ppl (standard
liquid litre price) to be followed by a 1st September increase.
Certainly this
weather is hurting and escalating on farm milk production costs both for this
winter and the here and now for those who are attempting to maintain forecast
production. Without more money in the
kitty to pay for the additional cost and to repay the previous price drop
financial mess many will likely say blow the production or even worse throw in
the towel. Time will tell whether our
information on Arla’s non movement for August is as good as Ian believes it
is.
July and August
will see Mother Nature have the last say on milk production and by default
determine milk prices and will be a favourite to win a tug of war against claims
weakening cream and butter prices.
AMPE & MCVE both pushing north (9th July 2018)
The June AHDB dairy
indicator prices show AMPE price 33.23ppl, whilst its sister, MCVE
32.77ppl. (See above table)
5% Crash in GDT Auction results (3rd July 2018)
Today’s 10th anniversary GDT
auction is no reason for farmers to celebrate as the average price crashed back
by a whopping 5% to average $3232 for the 26,519 tonnes sold, which is
the third consecutive fall in only 4 weeks.
Notable prices were:
WMP down 7.3% to average US $2905 tonne
SMP down 4.6% to average US $1913 tonne
Cheddar down 4.3% to average US $3713 tonne
Butter down 4.0% to average US $5390 tonne
The overall index has fallen by US $405
(11.1%) in only 7 weeks.
The auction started in July 2008 just as the
global crash in dairy prices started to go in freefall. During these 10 years
more than $22 billion (£16.7 billion) of dairy products have been traded to
buyers in more than 80 countries.
1.75ppl
milk price increase for Dairy Crest suppliers - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 30.40ppl
1.5ppl
milk price increase for Wyke Farms (Cheesemakers) - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 30.18ppl and standard liquid price to 29.15ppl
1.5ppl
milk price increase for Lactalis/The Fresh Milk Company (Cheesemakers)
suppliers –
from 1st July (29th June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 28.99ppl and standard liquid price to 28ppl
1.25ppl
milk increase for South Caernarfon Creameries suppliers - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 29.78ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for Glanbia Cheese Suppliers – from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 29ppl and standard liquid price to 28.03ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for Paynes Dairies suppliers – from 1st
July (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid price
to 28.2ppl
0.75ppl
milk price increase for Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1st
July (29th
June 2018)
0.33ppl
milk price increase for Tesco/TSDG dedicated suppliers - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This increase is as a result of the quarterly
review of prices for feed fertilizer and fuel. This takes producers’ standard
liquid price to 30.17ppl
No
price change for Muller suppliers in August (29th June 2018)
Muller have confirmed that there will be no
price change for its suppliers in August, which is what we were informed 10
days ago and resulted in us commenting in last week’s bulletin “and
in one case almost decided privately not to push through an August price
increase.” The Muller standard
liquid litre price for August will therefore remain at 28ppl.
What’s
the headline outlook (29th June 2018)
Commodity prices for SMP and butter continue
to weaken in the forward and spot markets, which is of concern. However, the current spell of hot weather
across Europe was the main talking point at this week’s Dairy UK Dinner
and Seminar with most realising production is set to drop below forecast unless
the weather changes.
Spot milk is reflecting the mood of buyers
with trade now at 35ppl and trending up on almost a daily basis.
Several milk purchasers have notified
producers of July and August milk price increase stressing the need to maintain
profiles and supplies as well as updated forecasts.
As we all know mother nature can wreck any
predictions in a matter of days and the only sure way to guarantee farmers will
feed compound to replace lost milk production is if the milk price incentivises
them.
Arla are now leading the charge and from the
figures above some are certainly struggling to keep up with them.
Dale
Farm secure Number 1 position as cheddar supplier to Lidl (29th
June 2018)
Lidl has signed a deal with Northern Ireland
based co-op subsidiary Dale Farm to supply cheddar cheese to 8,000 Lidl stores
in 22 countries, including the UK, Europe and USA.
In turn Lidl is now Dale Farm’s biggest
cheddar cheese customer. The co-op is the UK’s largest indigenous co-op with
1300 members.
There will likely be one or more losers but
we haven’t found out yet who they are and whether the cheese was made from UK
milk.
1.92ppl milk price increase for Arla members from
July 1st puts Arla back in front (22nd June 2018)
On the day Ash
Amirahmadi takes up his position as top honcho in Arla UK (see story below) his
co-op members will be in a UK milk league table champions league position with
this latest increase.
This takes the 1st
July standard liquid litre price to 29.31ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 30.5ppl with a clear hint that the expectation is for further
increases to follow soon. This price increase
serves as a challenge to most other milk purchasers some of whom will be
scratching their heads having considered and in one case almost
decided privately not to push through an August price increase. This policy
will need to be revisited and as one farmer emailed Ian it’s a wake up call to
others to up their game and quickly, especially if they want to recruit more
suppliers or even retain existing ones. The race to the top is back on.
Arla’s organic
standard litre price remains unchanged at 42.85ppl (manufacturing) and 40.80ppl
(liquid) mainly due to the fact organic milk supply continues to increase.
2ppl milk price increase for Arla Directs – from 1st July (22nd June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 27.3ppl
1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Crediton Dairy – from 1st August (22nd
June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 29ppl
1.25ppl milk price increase for Grahams Dairies
suppliers – from 1st July (22nd
June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 28ppl
0.674ppl milk price increase for Freshways
suppliers – from June 1st (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (22nd June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 26.95ppl
GDT auction index down 1.2% (22nd June 2018)
This week’s GDT
auction saw second consecutive average decline.
Notable prices
were:
Cheddar down 3.6%
to average US$3848 tonne
SMP down 1.1% to
average US$2003 tonne
WMP down 1.0% to
average US$3189 tonne
Butter up 0.8% to
average US$3488 tonne
Correction (22nd
June 2018)
In last week’s
bulletin we made a typo error when we quoted the new Sainsburys standard litre
price as 24.48ppl when it should have been 28.48ppl. Apologies and the error was quickly corrected
on our website www.ipaquotas.com/quotanews.htm
European Commission sell a further 23,533 tonnes of
Intervention SMP (22nd June 2018)
The total offered
in this month’s tender was 144,844 tonnes and the cheapest sold was at €1195
tonne, circa £1050. This leaves around
280,000 tonnes in store. Back in May
41,958 tonnes were sold.
Viking rule of Arla UK comes to a
sudden end (19th
June 2018)
Danishman Thomas Pietrangeli will leave his
position as UK MD of Arla UK in 10 days time to be replaced by Ash Amirahmadi,
who has quickly risen through the Arla ranks since he joined the business in
2004 and is popular in many quarters.
This is a seismic move by Arla, who for more
than 10 years have always had one of 3 Danish rulers heading up Arla’s UK
operation. Now it’s essentially a home grown non-Danish person heading up
the UK operation which most will welcome.
Ash has certainly had a good grounding having
worked on the farmer member, retail, trading and the commercial divisions of
Arla. There are certainly some big changes taking place at Arla and this
one looks like a change in Danish attitude and perhaps the realisation that if
a fourth Dane had been parachuted in to take charge of the UK, the business
could have had a backlash to wrestle with.
1.2ppl milk price increase for Pensworth Dairy
suppliers – from 1st July (15th
June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.2ppl.
1.2ppl milk price increase for First Milk members – from 1st July (15th June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.2ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.12ppl.
1ppl milk price increase for South Caernarfon
Creameries suppliers – from 1st
July (15th June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.6ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.53ppl.
1ppl milk price increase for Meadow Foods suppliers – from 1st July (15th June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.38ppl (Chester) and 28.25ppl (Cumbria).
0.36ppl milk price increase for Sainsburys Dairy Group
suppliers – from 1st July (15th
June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.48ppl (Muller) and 28.36ppl
(Arla). The increase is based on the
quarterly cost tracker review, in particular an increase in the cost of feed.
Concerning Discounts (15th June 2018)
1.
Tesco do half price Cathedral City
In a surprise move
Tesco are now selling No. 1 cheese brand, Cathedral City Cheddar at an eye
watering £5 per kilo. One headline
described the deal as “insanely cheap”.
The normal Tesco
price for Cathedral City is or rather was £10 kilo.
2.
Cash & Carry’s discount Yew Tree milk to only 65p
Notorious
Wolverhampton cash & carry dairy suppliers, Johal Dairies, are evidently
the suppliers of milk, which is advertised as Yew Tree milk at 65p for 2 litres
suddenly down by 27% from 89p. The price
drop started in the first week of June.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers
to Paynes Dairies – from 1st June (4th June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 27.2ppl
1.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Pattemores – from 1st July PRODUCER NOTIFIED (4th June
2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 28.93ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers
to Belton Farm (Cheese) – from 1st July (4th
June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 27.5ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 28.25ppl
1.25ppl milk price increase for Muller
Directs
– from 1st July (4th June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers
to Glanbia Cheese – from 1st July (4th June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 27.1ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 28ppl
0.65ppl Milk Price for Suppliers to
Dairy Crest Davidstow – from 1st July (4th
June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 27.57ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 28.65ppl
Market
Outlook and Statistics as 30ppl for June Milk quickly becomes an unexpected
reality (4th
June 2018)
In general the outlook is cautiously
optimistic and those at the most responsive end of commodity market movements
will receive over 30ppl for June deliveries.
Yew Tree Dairy have already notified
producers on their ingredients contract that their June price will be over
30ppl based on standard manufacturing contract and in excess of 29ppl based on
a standard liquid litre.
Meanwhile, Barbers Farmhouse Cheesemakers
suppliers receive 31.08ppl on their over base litres (AMPE 33.08 minus 2ppl).
So a farmer with a base of 100,000 litres for the month has 4% added and if he
produces say 110,000 litres he receives 31.08ppl on the 6,000 litres above the
104%. On the 104,000 litres for May, June & July the Barbers price has been
a constant 28.87 based on a manufacturing standard litre.
During May AHDB dairy calculated average UK
butter prices increased by 11% (£520 tonne) to £5180.
Despite the fact the European Commission sold
42,000 tonnes of Intervention SMP at a knock down price it appears to have help
boost the price for fresh SMP which in May increased by 14% (£165 tonne) to
£1320.
Last but not least cream values increased by
13% (£270 tonne) to £2350 this increase is worth an extra 1.6ppl to a liquid
processor.
Spot milk is trading circa 25p litre but most
processors are close to capacity and unable to take much if any advantage from
this price.
169
jobs to go at Arla as Llandyrnog and others are closed (4th
June 2018)
Arla has announced that 169 jobs are under
consultation in the UK as part of its 3 year calcium transformation programme.
Today’s announcement will see Arla’s
Llandyrnog Creamery close impacting on 97 staff, its Malpas cheese packing site
close impacting on 43 jobs, closure of its Lockerbie cheese packing facility
impacting on 14 jobs plus a further 15 roles at its Leeds HQ.
The total anticipated redundancy comes to 169
and the work from all three facilities will be redistributed to Arlas other
premises. A further 180 job cuts are understood to have been announced in
mainland Europe.
The Llandyrnog factory has undoubtedly been
severely affected by Arla’s loss of the Sainsburys cheese business, estimated
to be somewhere between 13 to 14,000 tonnes year, which must have been the
final nail in the coffin for a factory operating at below 50% capacity.
So whilst Arla is or perhaps was one of the
UK’s largest cheese producers as well as the worlds 5th largest
dairy processor it is certainly finding life tough and indeed downsizing at the
same time as two of its main GB competitors are making major investments to
increase production.
Last week Dairy Crest announced a £75 million
investment in its Davidstow Creamery to boost factory output by 23,000 tonnes.
In addition, Wyke Farms have just announced the building of a new dairy which
will see its existing 18,000 tonnes increased by almost 3 fold to 50,000 tonnes
once its various phases are completed.
Challenging times for Arla both in the UK and
globally and today’s announcement is expected to be the first of several.
Arla
serves notice on 11 supplying farmers (4th June 2018)
Its not a good week for Arla globally with
the news that 11 of its 33 supplying farmers to its Hollandtown, Wisconsin USA
plant have received termination notices due to a serious milk over supply.
These are the latest in an alarming list of
notices served on US dairy farmers, including 75 farmers supplying Grassland
Dairy and 100 under notice from Dean Foods. Several believe more farmers are
likely to receive similar notices to these 186 farmers.
Wyke Farms to build 50,000 tonne
cheese factory
(4th June 2018)
Wyke from Somerset
are set to build Ivy’s Dairy a 50,000 tonnes facility named after the Clothier
family’s famous Grandmother Ivy Clothier. The dairy will be built over a period
of eight years.
Muller signs up gold medallist as part
of its brand ambassador (4th June 2018)
Commonwealth Games
and World Indoor Championship gold medallist Katarina Johnson-Thompson has been
signed up as the Muller brand ambassador and joins a squad of 10 top athletes
promoting the Muller brand which ranks 7th in the Grocers Top 100
British Brands
1.15ppl increase in Arlas standard
litre price from 1st June
(25th May 2018)
Arla have announced a 0.88ppl (1 Euro Cent)
member price increase from June 1st. In addition, the 0.27ppl artic loading supplement is now
achieved by more that half of Arla members and consequently this amount will be
added to both the liquid and manufacturing standard litre prices published by www.milkprices.com.
The 1.15ppl total increase gives the following
standard litre prices
Liquid standard litre 27.51ppl
Manufacturing standard litre 28.58ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for Arla direct suppliers from 1st June - This increases the standard litre
price to 25.3ppl (25th
May 2018)
0.8ppl
milk price increase for Helers Cheese suppliers from 1st June (25th May 2018)
The
UK’s peak daily production passes as MCVE & AMPE both increase (25th May 2018)
Last weekend saw the UK reach its peak daily production
in what has been undoubtedly a much smaller spring flush as a result of
nature’s intervention.
At the same time the May AMPE increased to
33.08ppl up 4.18ppl in 4 weeks with MCVE up to 32.33ppl an increase of 0.95ppl
Muller
/ Lidl 28ppl fixed price contract closes fully subscribed (25th May 2018)
The innovative fixed price hedge offered to
Muller direct suppliers to fix up to 50% of their milk for up to three years is
now fully subscribed and closed.
Almost all of the 180million litres on offer
has been allocated with percentages committed varying from 10% to the maximum
50% and averaging 40% for each farmer with the majority of the deals for
the maximum 3 years.
It has certainly been a successful launch and
no doubt Muller will be hoping farmers don’t leave signing up and
committing to similar deals in future until the last 48 hours as happened with
this offering but that’s wishful thinking and reminds Ian of the quota trading
years.
GDT average increases by 1.9% with
talk of new butter record prices to come (25th May 2018)
Last Tuesday’s GDT auction recorded a 1.9%
all products average increase to US $3637 compared to that achieved two weeks
ago.
The butter average was up a further 2.4% and
has jumped by 30% in the past six months. There is now talk of a likely global
butter shortage which is tipped to top trump and eclipse the record highs
recorded in 2017.
Key price changes were
Cheddar index up 4.4% to average US $4205
tonne
SMP index up 3% to average US $2047
tonne
Butter index up 2.4% to average US $5787
tonne
WMP index up 0.2% to average US $3226 tonne
Dairy Crest to invest £85
million and will require an additional 200 million litres/ year (25th May 2018)
Of the total £85 million spend £75 million
will be invested in Dairy Crests flagship Davidstow Creamery and will
result in the cheese output from the factory increasing from 54,000 to 77,000
tonnes a year by 2023.
The creamery in Cornwall will require an
additional 200 million litres a year from a combination of its existing 330
suppliers as well as some new recruits
0.5ppl May milk price reduction cancelled by
Grahams Dairies (11th May 2018)
In a move other
milk purchasers should take note of Grahams Dairies have rescinded their
confirmed 0.5ppl milk price reduction, which took effect from May 1st. This results in an above average
producer standard liquid litre price of 26.75ppl for May deliveries.
In a letter
to its suppliers, Grahams Dairies focus on the fact they are agile and that
markets have strengthened.
So whilst
others have retained their May milk price cut Grahams appear to have done the
right thing by their farmers. They could
easily have gone down 0.5ppl for May and back up 0.5ppl for June and banked the
difference. The big question is whether
rescinding price cuts will be permitted in the government’s new compulsory milk
contracts, which removes milk buyer discretion and agility. An idea of the contracts detail is
anticipated very soon.
In the letter
Grahams point out that actual deliveries to the dairy are currently running 3%
below farmers forecast, which appears to be representative of the rest of GB
and indeed Europe. (See below)
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Meadow Foods – from June 1st (11th
May 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 27.38ppl (Chester suppliers) and 27.25ppl (Cumbria suppliers).
The key
influencing factor is the improvement in wholesale cream values.
The only way is up baby (11th May 2018)
That’s the
opening lyrics to the Yazz and The Plastic Population record and its now the
only way UK, European and world dairy prices are moving. Key influencers are:
Milk
deliveries are 3 to 5% lower than budgeted.
Futures
prices are increasing, especially for the second half of 2018 due to product
availability concerns.
Wholesale
prices for most, if not all, dairy products are rising globally.
Paynes offer a fixed price option for 28ppl (11th May 2018)
Paynes
Dairies are offering a fixed price contract at 28ppl, which will run until
November 2019. The positive interest and
uptake has been excellent with a couple of exceptions who declined on the basis
it’s not enough money! Initially all
Paynes suppliers have been offered the opportunity to fix up to 2% of their
production, which could prove to be an administrative nightmare. The identity of the customer offering the
fixed price is currently embargoed, however, it is anticipated they will
recognise the benefits of publically attaching their name to the
initiative. Charlie Payne has confirmed
to Ian that he is in negotiations with other customers over similar smoothing
mechanisms.
Tesco selling milk for £480.18 per litre (11th May 2018)
One eagle
eyed regular reader spotted Britain’s most expensive milk in a Tesco store.
It was Tesco
branded 1% milk proudly stating “Tesco fair for farmers guarantee”. If Tesco pay the farmers a fair share of
£480.00 litre they will certainly rise to the top of the tank with the cream.
Meanwhile
Tesco have reduced the shelf price of 4 pints from £1.10 by 1ppl to £1.09. Are we to believe shoppers will bother over a
1ppl reduction??
0.75ppl milk price increase for Muller Direct
suppliers – from 1st June breaks the log
jam (4th May 2018)
This takes
Muller Directs standard liquid litre milk price to 26.75ppl as a result of
strengthening markets (see below)
Stand on prices for June will not be reported (4th May 2018)
Apologies to
any processors who feel that trumpeting a June stand on price is worthy of a
mention in this bulletin but it won’t be.
Only GB price increases for June will be reported.
Prices are
certainly trending up both on the spot and with futures prices and remember
both AMPE and MCVE are both up (see above).
The mood is both positive and cautiously optimistic for continuing
gradual increases
April wholesale dairy prices were positive (4th May 2018)
AHDB’s April
dairy wholesale round up confirms cream increased by £150 tonne worth just
under 1pp to a liquid processor and making the total value of cream to a liquid
processor 12.16ppl
Butter was up
£440 tonne and even SMP recorded a small increase, as fresh SMP became harder
to find.
GDT auction prices down 1.1% to average
US$3465 tonne (4th May 2018)
An increased
tonnage of 19,508 tonnes (+1.3%) saw the average price fall predominantly due
to the fall in WMP.
Notable
movers were:
SMP up 3.6%
to average US$1999 tonne
Cheddar up
3.1% to average US$4024 tonne
Butter stand
on to average US$1990 tonne
WMP down 1.5%
to average US$3231 tonne
Friesland Campina down again but still
returning 29ppl (4th May 2018)
Although it’s
their 6th consecutive price drop the European dairy giants latest
equivalent 0.27ppl price drop results in a standard liquid litre price of
29.019ppl, which most in GB can only dream about.
Muller open their recruitment doors (4th May 2018)
There is no
secret that Muller have had a good 2018 in terms of quietly recruiting a number
of large producers across GB. Now the
doors are publically open as Muller’s planned investments mean they require
more milk than their existing 1700 suppliers are expected to be able to
deliver.
0.5ppl milk price reduction for supplies to
Grahams Dairies (Scotland) – from May 1st (27th
April 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price down to 26.25ppl. This could be the last 1st May
price cut.
AMPE and MCVE continue to head North (27th April 2018)
The April
AMPE price weighs in at 28.90 a 2.22ppl increase in a month, whilst MCVE stands
at 31.38ppl for April, a monthly increase of 0.33ppl. The AMPE increase is almost entirely down to
the rise in the value of butter, however, SMP also increased in value.
First Milk to hold its member milk price (27th April 2018)
This means
the standard liquid litre price for May will remain at 26ppl and based on a
manufacturing standard litre will remain at 26.88ppl.
Cheese exports up 23% (27th April 2018)
According to
AHDB Dairy UK cheese exports increased by 23% in 2017 compared to 2016 with a
value in excess of £615 million involving in excess of 170,000 tonnes.
The majority
was exported from the UK to the EU27, in particular to Ireland, France and
Holland.
Relief for all as Arla confirm no further
price cut for May deliveries (25th April 2018)
Arla members
conventional standard liquid litre milk price for May will be a stand on at
26.39ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre equates to 27.43ppl.
However, for
members supplying organic milk the supply continues to increase consequently UK
members will see a 0.88ppl (1 Euro Cent) reduction taking the standard liquid
litre to 40.43ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre equates to
42.04ppl. Arla organic suppliers in both
Denmark and Sweden receive a cut twice as large at 2 Euro Cents (1.78ppl).
400 million Euro cost saving target over 3
years for Arla (25th April 2018)
Arla has
publicised its “calcium” cost cutting programme where the aim is to reduce cost
by an eye watering 400 million Euro and the target is for 300 million (£263
million) of these savings to be returned to its 11,200 farmer members with the
remaining 100 million Euros of savings to be re-invested in the business. This equates to an extra £23,500 per member
assuming the savings targets are achieved.
Arla senior
management are certainly under intense pressure to deliver better milk prices
to members in all 7 countries and many in mainland Europe are very unhappy
about the hit the weaker pound is having in this post Brexit vote period, which
is estimated to have cost the co-op around £130 million plus. One key person commented to Ian “Arla’s GB
operation and members are a real pain in the A”
It’s a big
number with a huge internal transformation plan and will inevitably result in
job losses and potentially premises closures.
At least Arla are doing something big and positive in an effort to boost
the co-op’s performance whether it will come quick enough is debatable.
1.5ppl milk price drop for suppliers to
Tomlinson’s Dairies – from April 1st (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (20th
April 2018)
This takes
producers’ liquid standard litre price to 26ppl. The price for May deliveries will be held at 26ppl.
1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
South Caernarfon Creameries – from 1st
May (20th April 2018)