Dairy Industry news
and features
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Note, all standard
litre prices are those quoted by www.milkprices.com
and are based on the following:
The liquid standard
litre 4% bf, 3.3% protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million
litres a year on EODC but before seasonality, monthly profile payments,
balancing, B price additions, capital retentions or annual incentive schemes.
The
manufacturing standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the
exception of 4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Glanbia (Cheese) – from 1st
April
(15th March 2019)
This
results in a manufacturing standard litre milk price of 28ppl and based on a
liquid standard litre 27.07ppl
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers Dale Farm (Kendal) (8th March 2019)
This
results in a standard liquid litre milk price of 28.14ppl.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1st April (15th March 2019)
This
takes producers standard liquid litre milk price down to 26.75ppl
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1st
April – PRODUCER NOTIFIED (15th
March 2019)
Its
top secret what the Heler standard litre price will be so much so that even the
supplying farmers don’t know and can’t compare. Apologies.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Yew Tree Dairy – from 1st
April
(15th March 2019)
This
results in a standard liquid litre milk price of 26.75ppl
Belton
Farm (Cheesemakers) to hold prices for March (15th March 2019)
This
retains producers’ standard manufacturing litre milk price at 28.75ppl and
based on a standard liquid litre at 28ppl.
Barbers
(Cheese) to hold suppliers milk price for a Third consecutive month (15th March 2019)
This
retains producers’ standard manufacturing litre milk price at 29.13ppl and
based on a standard liquid litre at 28.09ppl.
First
Milk to hold its Member Milk price for April (15th March 2019)
This
means for February, March and April First Milk members manufacturing Standard
Litre milk price has remained unchanged at 28.43ppl and based on a standard
liquid litre 27.5ppl.
0.54ppl
milk price increase for Marks & Spencers Suppliers from – 1st
April (15th March 2019)
This
results in a standard liquid litre milk price of 33.36ppl.
0.25ppl
13th Payment/Member Premium to be paid to First Milk members in 2020 (15th March 2019)
This
is a new additional 13th payment which is calculated monthly based
on capital invested and paid as a lump sum in April next year.
To
receive the full 0.25ppl a member must have reached their capital contribution
target. The maximum capital a First Milk member can achieve is 200% which would
result in a 0.5ppl payment.
Taking
into account the 0.25ppl payment this increases the First Milk manufacturing
standard litre milk price to 28.68ppl and on a liquid standard litre to
27.75ppl.
GDT
Auction jumps up + 3.3% (15th
March 2019)
Last
weeks GDT Auction saw the average all products index increase by 3.3% to
average $3309 tonne the highest seen for 9 months. The only casualty was SMP
where prices dipped by 4.3% since the previous action only two weeks ago. This
is the 7th consecutive average price rise since December 4th
2018 and New Zealand analysts say that with the current strong ex farm milk
output the increased prices are demand driven mainly from China.
Notable
price movements were:
Cheddar
up 6%
to
average US $3888 tonne
WMP
up 6%
to average US $3186 tonne
Butter
up 3.7% to average
US $4657 tonne
SMP
down 4.3% to average US $2462 tonne
Milk
Price Outlook is heading for further price reductions (15th March 2019)
UK
milk output is simply a pipeline heading rapidly towards full bore and
pressure.
It’s
a fact that other than the dramatic and sudden intervention of Mother Nature
with a second Beast from any direction the only signal likely to rein in
production will be further processor price drops.
Spot
milk is heading South and is under 20p with trades today reported at 18ppl and
showing no signs of levelling with some fearing a return of single digit
prices.
Cream
has dropped by 25p from £1.65 and hovering around £1.40 in only 4 weeks a
reduction equivalent to around 2.5ppl to a liquid processor or retailer
depending on contract terms.
The
forward market signals offer no encouragement and are sliding South.
Arla
and most of the cheese processors are indeed performing extremely well in
holding farmgate milk prices at current levels for the moment. If they can ride
through spring holding current prices it will be a cracking result.
One
positive is that only 1,400 tonnes of SMP remain in EU Intervention stores compared
to 380,000 tonnes in 16 months ago in November 2017.
Not
sure how much foreign cheese is in our stores in the run up to Brexit but its a
fact there has been significant forward buying of dairy products in the run up
to Brexit which is likely to cool down from this point forward as buyers sit
back. That’s unless we end up with a delay and they opt to keep topping their
dairy stocks up as an insurance.
According
to the predictions of industry analyst Chris Walkland the UK has only ever
produced 45 million litres a day on two previous days and this year we could
touch 46 million litres/day.
Unless
things change very soon he predicts spring 2019 will see that 45 million litre
day smashed for 30 consecutive days.
That
leaves one big question. Do we have the capacity to process all the milk or
will we see distress milk?
It
won’t matter a jot what Ian Potter says because what will be will be and
it now seems inevitable that further price cuts are on the cards especially
from some liquid processors, unless something sensational happens to cut UK
milk output and quickly.
Back
in October Ian stated by spring 2019 there would be a price correction to
somewhere between 26 to 27ppl for liquid processors and not a price crash. That
assumed it was a “normal” year. Its by no means a normal year in terms of milk
volumes in terms of the political uncertainty the industry faces so those
predictions could be history within weeks.
Overall
the Outlook is not looking good with the likelihood of more pain before any
gain. Don’t shoot the messenger who has a pretty good track record of calling
this market. Nervous times are certainly here.
Arla
to be Carbon neutral/net Zero by 2050 (15th March 2019)
Arla
has set a target from the cow to the consumer to be carbon zero by 2050 with
any unavoidable emissions entirely offset by actions elsewhere in the supply
chain. In addition Arla will balance Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles to support
clean water and equally important to be more closely aligned with Nature to further
increase bio diversity across the British countryside.
Its
an impressive target for which detailed plans specific to the UK will be
published shortly and will involve all at Arla from the dairy farmer to the
consumer.
It’s
the sort if plan which gets you noticed with retailers and food service buyers.
Arlas
UK MD Ash Amirahmadi comments “One of the greatest challenges facing us all
is providing natural, nutritious food for a growing population whilst reducing
our collective impact on the world around us. Arla has already shown this is
possible and the new ambitions announced today will ensure Arla’s farmers”.
2nd
year of Dairy Promotion hits Cinema screens in London (15th March 2019)
The
joint AHDB/Dairy UK funded Department of Dairy Related Scrumptious Affairs consumer
advertising is now in its second year and from this Monday (11th
March) includes Cinema advertising.
The
£1.2 million campaign will run across the nation for 10 weeks and is targeted
at yound parents and uses powerful messages reminding young parents of the
nutritional value in dairy products.
0.8ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st March (1st March 2019)
This
results in a standard liquid litre price of 26.7ppl
Arla
maintain their leading position by holding producer prices for a 2nd
consecutive month (1st March 2019)
Arla will maintain its conventional member milk price at 30.24ppl
based on a manufacturing standard litre and 29.07ppl based on a standard liquid
litre.
Muller
to stand on for April will be a huge relief to its suppliers (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (1st March
2019)
Following last months 1.25ppl shock March milk price reduction
Muller farmers will be pleased with the news that their will be no milk price
reduction for April deliveries. The Muller liquid standard litre price for
March & April is 26.75ppl including the 0.5ppl premium paid in arrears and
without that premium its 26.25ppl.
The equivalent March price for Arla members (see above) is
29.07ppl a gap of 2.32ppl if you include the Muller 0.5ppl premium. Without the premium the gap is an eye
watering 2.82ppl.
Dairy
Crest to stand on for April milk payments (1st March 2019)
The standard manufacturing litre price will remain at 29.9ppl
and based on a standard liquid litre 28.82ppl.
Meadow
Foods to stand on for March milk payments
(1st
March 2019)
This means Meadow have held their producer price for February
and March at 27.5ppl for a standard liquid litre.
Barbers
cheese to stand on for a third consecutive month (1st March
2019)
For a third month Barbers standard manufacturing litre price
will remain at 29.13ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 28.09ppl.i
Pattermores
to stand on for April milk payments (1st March 2019)
The standard liquid litres will remain at 28ppl and based on
standard manufacturing litre 28.93ppl
0.9ppl
Arla Organic member milk price reduction- from 1st March. (1st March 2019)
This reduction still leaves Arla winning at Top Trumps and
results in an organic standard manufacturing litre price of 43.55ppl and based
on a liquid standard liquid litre 41.85ppl.
In the last bulletin we confirmed that Omsco had reduced its March
producer milk price by 1ppl. Based on a standard liquid litre this result in a
41ppl price.
Arla
will pay its former members its entire 2018 net profit of 290 million
Euros/£257 million. (1st March
2019)
This will amount to an additional 2.3 euro cents per kg/milk or
2.07ppl for its 11,200 European members on all milk delivered.
UK wise Arlas revenue from retail and Food service was up 3.3%
to break the £2 billion barrier (2017 £1.9 4 billion).
Without doubt when you sift through all of the numbers it's
Arlas huge basket of branded products on offer to the UK consumers which are
driving these results. Arla branded product sales grew 8.6% and have an average
annual growth for the last 5 years of 8.8%.
The total member pay out is £245 million of which 2,500 UK
members will receive £64 million this month.
Production
update (1st March
2019)
Whilst milk production in the key mainland Europe Nations of
France, Germany and Holland are lower than they were in 2018 that certainly is
not the case in GB with milk flowing at such a rate it's heading for the rocks
with the real possibility we simply won't have sufficient processing capacity
at peak production.
According to AHDB Dairy GB milk deliveries are running at
800,000 litres a day up (+2.2%) or + 5.6 million a week.
Saputo
from Canada to buy Dairy Crest for close to 1 billion. (1st March 2019)
Once Dairy Crest succeeded in offloading its liquid business to
Muller it was inevitable the more profitable and attractive. Davidstow Cheese facility would be sold and
it's heading for ownership by Saputo who are in the top 10 largest in the
world.
Canadian owned world dairy giant Saputo have made a cash offer
of £6.20 per share totalling £964 million and Dairy Crest board approval is set
to be unanimous.
Dairy Crest is certainly a solid, branded profitable operation
which for the last financial year delivered a profit after tax of 150 million.
It's good news for Dairy Crest share holders, great news CEO
Mark Allen (who will be off with the Loot into the Sun set) and appears to be
good news for the Dairy Crest farmer suppliers.
Saputo have no operations in Europe which means a very limited
if not negligible threat from Saputo importing cheese to the UK.
It's a near certainty Saputo will change very little and will certainly value
their inherited supplying farmers who should view this as a great result and
will simply see business as usual.
Another advantage is that Saputo will be in a strong position to
fund and accelerate growth and expansion at the Davidstow processing facility.
Trade
for First Milk shares is a buyers market
(1st
March 2019)
Yesterday saw the second asset match monthly sale of First Milk
C preference shares close where only 186,000 shares changed hands at 11p per
share down almost 40% on last months sale average which saw 152,000 shares
trade for 18p out of a total issue of 68.5 million shares..
Not good news for former First Milk suppliers seeking to cash in
their investment.
George
Eustice quits as Environment Minister (1st March
2019)
George Eustice, who was a big supporter of Brexit, has resigned
over The Prime Ministers promise to allow MP’s to vote on a Brexit delay if her
deal is rejected on the 12th
March.
He is basically against the government going to the EU only 17
days before 29th March begging for an extension.
Snow
storm takes 1800 cows (1st March
2019)
A combination of serious snowfall and extreme temperatures in
Southern Washington (USA) has seen 1800 cows perish bringing with it a bill of
over £3 million excluding lost milk which was dumped.
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Pensworth (liquid) – from 1st
March (15th February 2019)
This result in a standard liquid litre price
of 26.35ppl.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to OMSCO – from 1st March (15th
February 2019)
The price change will affect 250 OMSCO
supplying farmers and is a direct reflection on the challenging uncertainties
OMSCO face as a no deal Brexit looms closer to reality.
In addition members have been notified it is
unlikely there will be and 13th payment for the 2018/19 milk year.
At the same time the Co-op is also
introducing an A & B milk pricing mechanism in a bid to limit the impact of
the additional litres they have to handle both in terms of increasing
production and in the event OMSCO’s successful dairy product exports come to a
sudden halt on 27th March.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – from 1st
February (15th February 2019)
This is highly likely to be the final
February 1st price change which was notified to producers at the end
of January,
The result s a standard manufacturing litre
milk price of 28.7ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 27.75ppl.
Belton
Farm to hold its producer milk price for March (15th
February 2019)
This means until 1st April the
Belton standard manufacturing litre milk price will be 28.75ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre 28ppl.
1.25ppl shock price
drop for Muller Direct producers from 1st March (31st January 2019)
Muller
have shocked the majority of the Dairy Industry with a 1st March price
drop amounting to 1.25ppl.
Muller
say one of the key reasons for the drop is a surge of unplanned milk smashing
all forecasts and expectations.
Muller
have indicated they were irresponsibly scare mongered by various organisations
that on farm winter production would be hit hard following last summers
drought. The reality is the opposite has occurred with a significant production
surge.
Muller,
and others, are having to handle the biggest GB milk output for more than 25
years and say they simply cannot absorb the extra milk and associated cost
especially in the ridiculously cut throat and marginless liquid packing
business.
This
1.25ppl drop reduces the February standard litre price for 700 Muller Direct
Farmers from 28ppl to 26.75ppl a price which includes the 0.5ppl Muller premium
which an estimated 80% of Muller Direct producers achieve and is paid annually
in arrears to those who quality who are not under notice to leave. Some refer
to it as a loyalty bonus!
Without
that 0.5ppl premium the standard litre price is 26.25ppl.
Mullers
spin Doctor has certainly been taking steroids and is keen to remind everyone
that around one third of the 700 Muller Direct producers will continue to receive
28ppl for the portion of their milk output they committed under the fixed price
contact option.
There
can be no doubt Muller have broad shoulders and “big balls” especially given
they are one of the few remaining voluntary code complaint milk buyers and
offer a short 3 month farmer notice period.
All
eyes will now be on Arla when they declare their 1st March milk
price. If Arla do manage to announce a no price change it will leave a whopping
2.81ppl standard liquid litre price gap between them and Muller (or 2.31ppl if
the Muller Premium is included). If that happens the big question will be how
and why this gap can happen.
In
addition its looking very much like Muller could be one of the lowest March
prices however it’s a fact a bunch of middle ground liquid processors will be
breathing a huge sigh of relief as they really battle to breakeven. Watch out
for the introduction of A + B pricing by some as a solution.
What message does Ian
think Muller are sending to the Industry (31st
January 2019)
Muller
were unavailable for coment today but Ian thinks their message is very simple.
“We can’t make money
in the UK liquid market having invested a shed load of money. The NFU’s are
insisting farmers share the risks and rewards with milk processors. Consequently
we have cut the farmer milk price to share the risks and lack of rewards with
our farmer suppliers just as the NFU’s are insisting.”
So
Muller could now be fully on board with the NFU’s and their contract reform
demands.
Unfortunate Market Intelligence
comment from AHDB (31st January 2019)
Within
minutes of the Muller price drop announcement came an AHDB Dairy Market weekly
update with a headline:
“Boost to market
value of milk may halt drops in farmgate prices.”
The
news item pointed to a reversal of “the direction of market trends “ which
could put an end to downward pressure on market farmgate prices. Very
unfortunate timing by AHDB Dairy Market Intelligence.
Dairy Crest Direct
(Davidstow) to hold its milk price for March (31st January 2019)
This
means that for March deliveries the Dairy Crest standard Manufacturing litre
milk price remains at 29.9ppl and based on a standard liquid litre is at
28.82ppl
UK Milk Futures
Equivalent (UK MFE) prices take a battering (31st
January 2019)
The
FC store milkprices.com UKMFE forward trades took a battering last week with
weaker prices for butter, and SMP plus a further strengthening of sterling
against the euro.
www.milkprices.com calculate that in the
past 4 weeks these combined price movements equate to 1.48ppl drop in milk
values and takes the net UK MFE milk price to 27.10ppl
Wyke Farms to double
its capacity (31st January 2019)
Farmhouse
cheese makers Wyke have secured planning permission which when complete will
almost treble its output from the current 18,000 tonnes to around 50,000
tonnes. The new facility will be named Ivys Dairy after the familys famous
grandmother and will be built in stages over 8 years.
Crediton Dairy unveil
its £12m Expansion (31st January 2019)
Starting
next month Crediton will invest £12 million in its flavoured milk processing
facility boosting its processing capacity. Completion is planned for August
2019.
Since
the Management buyout less than 6 years ago this will take the total Crediton
investment will amount to £26 million.
EU Aged SMP is sold (31st January 2019)
At
last the European Union has almost cleared the last of close to 400,000 tonnes of
Intervention SMP. This is good news and eliminates a big black cloud which has
hung over Europe and the world dairy industry for almost 4 years.
The
tonnage started to accumulate in the summer of 2015. Its sale will certainly
help the current price of fresh SMP.
Save the date
This year’s Dairy
Industry Newsletter annual dairy conference will be May 9-10 in London, at the
Tara Copthorne Hotel as usual. The theme is ‘Will Dairy Supply Continue to
Outstrip Demand?’ As the world’s dairy markets become more and more interlinked
and world commodity dairy prices become more globalised, supply and demand also
becomes more globalised, with events on one side of the world having an impact
on the other. Recent studies suggest that world demand for dairy products will
exceed supply in the medium to long term. Is there any evidence of this
yet?
Email Carolyn Moore for bookings info: carolyn@dairyindustrynewsletter.co.uk
Confirmed speakers so far include Eric Meyer
(Highground, US), Patrick Müller (Müller UK), Jukka Likitalo (Eucolait), Nick
Saphir (OMSCo, UK), Torsten Hemme (IFCN, Germany), James Neville (Volac, UK).
Yeo Valley launches
conventional direct supply contract (25th January 2019)
Yeo Valley is recruiting its own
direct conventional milk pool with milk going into its Blagdon and Cannington
processing facilities destined for own label yoghurts for the majority if
the UK’s major retailers.
The contract and recruitment is a
partnership with First Milk who are administering the contract and this will
certainly be of interest to farmers within the Somerset and Devon and Dorset
Borders
It appears to be a premium
contract along with a a floor price feature offering protection in the form of
a minimum price guarantee of not less that the average www.milkprices.com monthly
price of a basket involving Arla members, Muller direct and First Milk Midlands
which is a fairly strong floor price.
The initial requirements are
believed to be circa 20 million litres and our info suggests some of this was
signed up this week only days after the launch, First Milk are the guys to
contact if anyone is interested.
2.03ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Freshways (18th January 2019)
According
to wwwmilkprices.com the 2.03ppl reduction is split into two parts with a
0.972ppl reduction for December deliveries and a further 1.058ppl for January
deliveries based on Freshways basket tracker.
The
reductions result in a standard liquid litre milk price of 27.77ppl on January
1st and 28.83ppl based on a standard manufacturing litre.
1ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st January (18th
January 2019)
This
results in a standard liquid litre of 27.5ppl
0.5ppl milk price reduction
for suppliers to Dale Farm GB but 30p plus is a great result (18th
January 2019)
Dale
Farm suppliers to its Cumbrian processing facility from December 1st
were still paid a standard liquid litre price of 30.14ppl following this latest
reduction which is without doubt one of the leading prices paid on December.
0.5ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheese) – from 1st February (18th
January 2019)
This
results in a standard manufacturing litre price of 28.75ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre 28ppl.
0.25ppl milk price
reduction for members of 1st Milk- from February 1st (18th January 2019)
This
results in a standard manufacturing litre price of 28.43ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre 27.5ppl.
GDT bounces up again
by a further 4.2% (18th January 2019)
Tuesdays
GDT Auction saw the average all products price up a further 4.2% which is its 4th
consecutive rise and follows hot on the heels of rises of 2.2%, 1.7% and 2.8%. This
is yet more encouraging news to emphasise the necessity for farmgate milk
prices to at least stabilise from March 1st at the latest.
In
less than two months the average price has now bounced up by 12% from $2727 to
average $3057 tonne.
Key
movers were
SMP
+ 10.3% to average $2405
tonne
Butter
+ 4.6% to average $4262
tonne
Cheddar + 4.2% to average $3504 tonne
WMP + 3.0% to average $2777 tonne
Total
tonnage sold 27,909 tonnes. The next GDT Auction will be held on 6th
February.
0.86ppl milk price decrease for
Arla Members
- from 1st December (27th November 2018)
Arla have announced what should be the final
2018 milk price announcement which is a 0.86ppl standard liquid litre milk
price reduction (0.89ppl reduction based on the standard manufacturing litre).
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 30.35ppl and 31.57ppl based on the manufacturing standard litre.
1.72ppl milk price increase for Arla
Organic members - from
1st December (27th November 2018)
An Arla Organic members milk price increase
for liquid of 1.72ppl takes the standard liquid litre price to 42.71ppl and the
1.79ppl manufacturing increase takes the standard manufacturing litre price to
44.43ppl. Both prices exclude the derogation penalty of 3 Euro
cents/litre. Note, this Arla members organic milk price increase only
applies to GB members with mainland Europe Arla members organic milk price
unchanged for December.
0.46ppl backdated rebate for Sainsbury’s suppliers
(16th November 2018)
Sainsbury’s have back-dated a 1st October additional 0.46ppl increase to its SDDG suppliers following a recent review of it’s COP model involving family labour as operated by Kite Consultancy.
Less than two months ago in this bulletin we featured a news item “Sainsbury’s under attack from its farmer suppliers”. This followed the retail giants decision to pay its farmers only 0.6ppl out of a 0.9ppl loss having incorrectly costed Megalac and calf milk powder in the model at the feed wheat price. Having identified the error this extra wasn’t backdated and yes Sainsbury’s pocketed the 0.3ppl.
In that same article Ian referred to the constant dilution of the COP model in ppl terms for family labour and now they have tried to correct this error.
The big question Sainsbury’s suppliers need an answer to is why their retailer model is so wrong and requiring surgery. First the extra on feed and now extra on family labour. It’s looking like a lot of back-tracking and a flawed/broken model. Time for some answers and an independent review.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Grahams Dairies (liquid/Scotland) – from 1st
December (16th
November 2018)
This take producers’ standard liquid milk
price to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)
Stand
on December milk price for First Milk members (16th
November 2018)
First Milk have declared their December 1st
milk price much earlier than normal (2nd November) and members will
be pleased to know that the co-op is holding its current price until at least 1st
January 2019.
The First Milk members liquid standard litre
price remains at 28.5ppl and 29.47ppl based on a manufacturing standard
litre. For First Milk’s Haverfordwest
Cheese Group will continue to receive a manufacturing standard litre price of
30.97ppl.
To date we are unaware of any GB hard cheese
producer who has announced a 2018 supplier milk price reduction unlike the situation
liquid processors face.
Freshways
losses are not unique (16th November 2018)
For the year ending December 2017 Freshways
have recorded a pre-tax loss of £4.2m compared to a £1.9m profit in the
previous year. It’s an eye watering
swing of £6.1m in only 12 months.
Freshways bank borrowings were up 28% to £14.8m. Of more concern is the fact Freshways still
has an ongoing HMRC investigation.
Whilst these figures are not good news and
highly unlikely to be reversed in the current year Freshways have significantly
more security and collateral than many others in the same sector. They are by no means expected to be at the
bottom of a pile of liquid processors financial results, which are anticipated
in one or two instances to be grim and potentially end up with one on life
support. Watch this space for further
results between now and the year end.
Cornish
clotted cream to China (16th November 2018)
The name Roddas = Clotted cream and their
luxury product is now heading for China following this week’s Food & Hotel
China exhibition in Shanghai.
Discovery
4 Commercial Van from 2013 (16th November 2018)
It has had Landrover dealer fitted genuine
full 7 seat interior so identical to a normal car. Commercial registered van, so fully vat
reclaimable running costs are business expenses annual road tax around £220 a
year. 96,600 miles. Brand new set
tyre just fitted. Fully valeted. Host of extras. £19,500 + VAT. Location Yorkshire. For further details email
ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
Ian
will be joining a panel at AgriScot next Wednesday – 21st November
at 1pm to 2pm (16th November 2018)
Ian’s contribution is certain to be
enlightening, lively and honest.
Speakers
Rory Christie - Dairy Farmer
Tom Hind - Chief Strategy Officer at AHDB
Roddy McLean - Director of Agriculture, Royal Bank of Scotland
Ian Potter - Industry Commentator and PIA
GDT continues to fall (6th
November 2018)
It’s now 11 consecutive GDT auctions with no upward
average price movement. Today’s auction
recorded an average price of US$2851 down a further 2% from the US$2885
recorded 3 weeks ago although SMP recorded an increase.
Notable movers were:
Cheddar down
4.6% to average US$3250 tonne
WMP down
2.9% to average US$2655 tonne
Butter down
1.7% to average US$4045 tonne
SMP up
1.2% to average US$1997 tonne
MILK PRICES UP
0.43ppl milk price increase for Waitrose aligned suppliers – from 1st December
(6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 31.85ppl
MILK PRICES DOWN
Muller
break the log jam with a 1ppl 1st December price cut (6th November 2018)
Given the fact Muller are one of only a few
milk purchasers who remain Voluntary Code compliant they were always set to be
the dam busters and have confirmed a 1ppl price drop for 1st
December, which has come as no surprise to those who study the markets.
The
Muller standard liquid litre price for November 1st is 29.5ppl and
from December 1st will be 28.5ppl
Note,
whilst Muller are the first GB milk purchaser to declare a price reduction
according to our records back on 30th April Muller were the first to
break the log jam with a 0.75ppl increase for 1st June, which others
followed. So they were first up and
first down. Watch out for one or two who
could be last up and first down!
1ppl milk price
reduction for Glanbia (Cheese) suppliers – from 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 27.99ppl and standard manufacturing price of 29.00ppl
1ppl milk price
reduction for Meadow Food suppliers – from 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 28.5ppl
1ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Pensworth (Liquid) - from 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 28.8ppl
1ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Woodcocks/Yew Tree Dairy (liquid) - from 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 28.5ppl
MILK PRICES ON HOLD
Arla
will hold its member’s milk price until 1st December (6th November 2018)
Arla have confirmed there will be no change
in its November 1st Milk price at 31.21ppl based on the standard
liquid litre and 32.37ppl on a standard manufacturing litre
Wyke Farms (Cheese)
will hold suppliers prices until at least 1st January 2019 (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 29.65ppl and standard manufacturing price of 30.69ppl
Lactalis (AKA The
Fresh Milk Company) will hold suppliers prices until at least 1st
January 2019 (6th
November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 29.00ppl and standard manufacturing price of 30.03ppl
South Caernarfon
Creameries (Cheese) will hold suppliers prices until at least 1st
January 2019 (6th
November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 29.55ppl and standard manufacturing price of 30.52ppl
Pattemores Dairy (liquid)
will hold suppliers milk price until at least 1st January 2019 (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 29.5ppl and standard manufacturing price of 30.47ppl
Wensleydale Creamery
(Cheese) will hold suppliers milk price until 1st December (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 29.5ppl and standard manufacturing price of 30.45ppl
Barber’s (Cheese) will hold suppliers milk price until at least 1st
January 2019 (6th November 2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 29.58ppl and standard manufacturing price of 30.68ppl
Grahams (Liquid) still to declare its 1st December milk
price position (6th November
2018)
Paynes Dairies (Liquid) still to declare its 1st December
milk price positon (6th November
2018)
First Milk (Cheese) will hold members’ milk price until 1st
December (6th November
2018)
This results in a standard liquid litre milk price
of 28.9ppl and standard manufacturing price of 29.47ppl
Spot Milk – for those who are interested spot milk is
trading at 24ppl (6th November 2018)
For Sale -
2 x Merlin Robotic Milking Cates (6th November 2018)
In excellent working order complete with milk conductivity sensing
and recording, automatic plant washing and auto cow identification. Adapted for
Jerseys, could be converted for HF.
Fullwood Q3 vacuum pumping outfit and electric motor suitable
for above.
Dry running compressed air outfit suitable for above.
Shuttle milk sampling system for NMR recording suitable for
Fullwood or Lely robots x 2.
Stainless steel water heater.
Milk plate coolers x 2.
Bulk
milk tank 5000 litre with A.P.V valve to allow auto milk transfer from robots.
For
sale due to unforeseen circumstances
For
any further details contact rm.cf.joyce@btinternet.com
Arla
stand on with its producer price for November 1st at 31.21ppl (31st
October 2018)
Arla have confirmed there will be no change
in its November 1st milk price at 31.21ppl based on the standard
liquid litre and 32.37ppl on a standard manufacturing litre
Muller
break the log jam with a 1ppl 1st December price cut (31st
October 2018)
Given the fact Muller are one of only a few
milk purchasers who are Voluntary Code compliant they were always set to be the
dam busters and today have confirmed a 1ppl price drop for 1st
December, which has come as no surprise to those who study the markets.
During the next day or two it’s a near
certainty a heap of milk purchasers, particularly those in the liquid middle
ground area, will follow Muller with 1st December price cuts and you
wouldn’t rule out the odd cheeky and desperate milk buyer even cutting producer
prices from 1st November which would cause a stir!!
The
Muller standard liquid litre price for November 1st is 29.5ppl and
from December 1st will be 28.5ppl
0.21ppl
milk price increase for Freshways suppliers- from 1st
October (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (17th
October 2018)
This takes producers liquid standard litre
price to 29.8ppl and is tipped to be the last GB price increase of 2018 and in
the top 3 liquid prices from the league table below.
Fonterra
revises its forecast milk price down by up to 1.88ppl equivalent (17th
October 2018)
Due to higher global milk supplies,
particularly in Europe and the US, Fonterra has reduced its forecast farm gate
milk price for the current 2018/2019 year from $6.75 per kg milk solids
(25.32ppl) to $6.25 to $6.50 (23.44ppl to 24.38ppl)
The CEO of Fonterra commented “Global demand
is simply not matching current increases in supply”
GDT
clocks up its 10th consecutive fall (17th
October 2018)
Yesterday’s GDT recorded its 10th
consecutive average price fall all though this latest fall was only slight at
-0.3% with the all products average price falling from US$2901 tonne to US$2885
tonne, the lowest average price recorded since October 2016.
Notable movers were:-
Cheddar down
1.8% to average US$3404 tonne
WMP down
0.9% to average US$2729 tonne
SMP no
change US$1977 tonne
Butter +
2.4% to average US$4114 tonne
October 1st runners and riders league
table - September milk prices shown in brackets (17th
October 2018)
Liquid Manufacturing
Standard
litre Standard litre
Arla Co-op Members 31.21 (30.16) 32.47 (31.38)
Crediton Dairy 30.00
(30.00) -
Freshways 29.80
(29.59)
Wyke Farms 29.65
(29.65) 30.69 (30.69)
Barbers 29.58
(29.58) 30.68 (30.68)
South Caernarfon
Creameries 29.55 (29.55) 30.52 (30.52)
Wensleydale
Creamery (Cheese) 29.50 (29.50) 30.45 (30.45)
Payne’s 29.50
(29.50) -
Meadow Foods 29.50
(29.50) -
Yew Tree Dairies 29.50 (29.50) -
Belton 29.50
(29.50) 30.25 (30.25)
Muller 29.50
(29.50) -
Dairy Crest Davidstow 29.32 (29.32) 30.40 (30.40)
Fresh Milk Company
(Lactalis) 29.00 (29.00) 30.03 (30.03)
Glanbia 28.99
(28.99) 30.00 (30.00)
First Milk Co-op
Members 28.50 (28.50) 29.47 (29.47)
Arla Direct 28.75
(28.00) -
Joseph Heler
(Cheese)
CORRECTION (17th October 2018)
In the last
bulletin we incorrectly suggested that First Milk were the only buyer to stand
on for October. This was a big error as
can be seen above where 13 out of 17 stood on for October 1st.
Arla
launches its UK360 programme standards with Aldi support (17th
October 2018)
Following a 6 month trial involving 79
farmers Arla have launched their UK360 programme, which is a new set of higher
standards than the basic Red Tractor Standards, which encompass the best on
farm practice for animal welfare, animal health, people/staff development,
environmental and natural resources, community engagement as well as economic
resilience and reinvestment.
Aldi is the first retailer to sign up to the
new standards and ongoing discussions are understood to be at an advanced stage
with other Arla customers. Aldi will pay a premium to a named and selected
group of Arla members as part of the Aldi Dairy Farm Partnership in return for
these farmers delivering the higher standards at farm level.
More on this in Ian’s next Dairy Farmer
article but it’s certainly a very different approach to what has become the
norm of retailers setting the farm standards.
Note, Arlagarten will continue to set the
baseline standards for all Arla members with UK360 linked to retailers and food
service customers’ appetite to come on board and pay a premium to those farmers
who can and want to help protect the industry and retailer brands by adopting
the 360 standards.
First
Milk unveils there initiatives, including a 13th payment (17th
October 2018)
Business at First Milk continues to make
positive steps forward and today the co-op has announced three member
initiatives/changes.
1.
Capital
contribution targets will be frozen at members’ current level meaning members
who want to expand will no longer be compelled to fund increased capital
contributions.
2.
The
introduction of an annual 13th payment from April 2019.
This 13th
payment will commence from April 2019 at 0.25ppl and will be paid in April 2020
but adjusted accordingly to each member’s capital target. For example, if a member has 100% of their
capital target they will receive the full 0.25ppl. If they are at 200% they will receive 0.5ppl
(the maximum) conversely if they are 50% of target they will only receive
0.125ppl.
3.
Transparent
member share trading from December 2018 via the Asset Match platform, which
will particularly benefit retired members and be free to use.
Muller
has finished its integration with the Dairy Crest Liquid Business (17th
October 2018)
Muller
has announced completion of Britain’s largest ever dairy integration following
its acquisition of the Dairy Crest Liquid business which it claims gives it a
25% share of Britain’s 12.4 billion litre farm gate milk business (3.1billion
litres) making them number 2 to Arla who process 3.8 billion litres (31%).
The
two businesses process 56% of all Britain’s milk.
First
Milk winners of its new Responsible Farming Awards (17th
October 2018)
First Milk are upping the stakes on farm
assurance recognising their highest achieving members with awards for Animal,
Environment and People categories.
Alan Conway, Northumberland won the Animal
category for on farm improvements to animal welfare.
Collingthwaite Farm, Nottinghamshire won the
Environment category.
The Pritchard’s from Fishguard and Maughans
Farm, Cumbria were joint winners of the People award.
FOR SALE – 1962 Fordson Super Major on original RF60 Buff Log Book (17th October 2018)
It’s Ian who is selling this on Ebay Item
number 273504226468 – ends this Sunday – see link below:
For Sale - 2 x Merlin Robotic Milking Cates (17th October 2018)
In excellent working order complete with milk conductivity sensing
and recording, automatic plant washing and auto cow identification. Adapted for
Jerseys, could be converted for HF.
Fullwood Q3 vacuum pumping outfit and electric motor suitable
for above.
Dry running compressed air outfit suitable for above.
Shuttle milk sampling system for NMR recording suitable for
Fullwood or Lely robots x 2.
Stainless steel water heater.
Milk plate coolers x 2.
Bulk
milk tank 5000 litre with A.P.V valve to allow auto milk transfer from robots.
For
sale due to unforeseen circumstances
For
any further details contact rm.cf.joyce@btinternet.com
1.07ppl milk price
increase for Tesco/TSDG aligned producers – from 1st November (2nd
October 2018)
This increase arises as a result of Promars review of the annual Tesco
cost tracker figures as budgeted to 31st March 2019. This increases
the cost of production from 30.17ppl to 31.24ppl.
Variable costs 18.15ppl
Overhead costs 11.22ppl
Depreciation 1.87ppl
31.24ppl
0.75ppl milk price
increase for Arla direct suppliers – from October 1st (2nd October 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 28.75ppl and
based on a manufacturing standard litre 29.96ppl.
Muller stand on price for
a second consecutive month for November (2nd
October 2018)
Mullers 29.5ppl liquid standard litre price paid on October deliveries
will continue for all deliveries in November.
First Milk stand on
price for a second consecutive month for October 1st (2nd
October 2018)
First Milk members 28.5ppl standard liquid litre price on September
deliveries and based on a manufacturing standard litre 29.47ppl will continue
in October. First Milk, according to our records, are the only GB processor to
stand on for October deliveries.
Barbers stand on price
for the third consecutive month (2nd
October 2018)
Barbers (Cheese) 30.68ppl standard manufacturing litre and 29.8ppl on a
liquid standard litre price paid on September and October deliveries will
continue for all deliveries in November to make it three months in a row.
The milk price for Barbers producers over base litres for September has
reduced by 1.34ppl to 29.84ppl.
Dairy Crest and DCD gain
top marks for milk price stability into 2019 (2nd
October 2018)
Reporting that Dairy Crest’s Davidstow milk for cheese producer price
for November will remain at 30.4ppl based on a manufacturing standard litre and
29.32ppl on liquid would normally be of passing interest and more or less
falling into line with others.
However, this stand on floor price has been guaranteed until 1st
February 2019, which is both a surprise and very welcome for which credit
should be given to Dairy Crest and DCD for agreeing this move.
Dairy Crest increased its manufacturing standard litre milk price to
30.4ppl (liquid 29.32ppl) from 1st August then from 1st
September introduced a 0.5ppl winter supplement to take the manufacturing price
to 30.9ppl and liquid to 29.82ppl. This latest move results in Dairy Crest
Suppliers benefitting from 6 months of price stability at the enhanced
manufacturing rate of 30.9ppl.
GDT Auction Prices fall
again for the 9th Consecutive time (2nd
October 2018)
Todays GDT Auction has fallen for the 9th Consecutive time
and everyone hopes it turns the corner soon.
Total quantity sold today 41,981 tonnes to average US $2901 tonne
(-1.9%)
Notable prices at today’s auction were:
Butter down 5.9% to average
US $4016 tonne
WMP down 1.2% to average US
$2753 tonne
Cheddar down 1.2% to average US
$3468 tonne
SMP down 0.3% to average US
$1982 tonne
The Outlook (2nd
October 2018)
Stand on prices are now mainstream particularly for November deliveries
unless you supply Arla who are still increasing producer prices for October.
As stated last week wholesale markets are under pressure with
particularly the cream and butter price in decline, which AHDB report fell by
£330 (butter) and £100 (bulk cream) in September. The FCStoneMilkprices.com
UKMFE forward price curve has now recorded its 6th consecutive drop
with this month (October) having recorded a 5.24ppl drop in that 6 week period.
Against these prices SMP nudged up £30 tonne and mild cheddar prices for
September were unchanged but the direction is regrettably but firmly south.
It’s now a case that any holds/stand on milk prices for November
onwards should be considered a favourable announcement. That’s until someone breaks rank which almost
seems inevitable will be in 2018 rather than 2019.
2018 SFP Exchange rate
confirmed at 0.89281 (2nd October 2018)
This is a fraction lower (0.2%) than the 2017 rate of 0.89470 which
means the RPA payment per entitlement is likely to be very similar to last
year.
Volvo 8 Ton Timber Harvester
For Sale in Scotland with a stroke head (2nd
October 2018)
Fully guarded, including bullet proof Marguard windscreen and built
by Caledonian Forestry Services Ltd only 3 years ago. Reason for sale is because the family have acquired
a bigger capacity machine.
If interested or you require further information or photographs please
email angus@kirkside.net or call Angus 07794 623 975.
Ian and Carole need your help to raise as
much money as possible for the chances for Children Charity Buttle UK (www.buttleuk.org) (2nd
October 2018)
Background
- Back in 2015 Ian & Carole travelled to New Zealand and joined the
Pork Pie Charity Run (www.porkpie.co.nz) in a classic
Mini and raised £6,600 for charity. In 2017 the intrepid duo “squeezed”
behind the wheel again and drove Ian’s 1963 Mini Cooper S to Rotterdam
for a weekend to raise money in the 20th and final Regis Ladies
Classic Car Tour. They scooped the Award for the team who raised the most money
for two Cancer Charities raising over £3,000.
Later this month they are off again this time to
Italy with The Italian Job www.italianjob.com
Carole & Ian are joining classic MINI
enthusiasts from all over the UK, Europe and further afield for a charity
fund-raising trip of a lifetime, following in the tyre tracks of Michael
Caine’s 1969 film, through the Swiss Alps, across Italy and even onto the
rooftop test track of the world famous Fiat factory building in Turin.
Since 1990 The Italian Job Event has already raised
over £3 million for children’s charities and this year the beneficiary will be
the Childrens charity Buttle UK. Buttle
UK plan to use the monies raised to give 1000 children a bed to sleep in. The Charity estimate that over 400,000
children in the UK do not have a bed of their own which leads to children
lacking sleep, affecting concentration and therefore academic achievement.
It is a fantastic cause and Ian and Carole will be
grateful for any donations.
100% of your donations will go to the Charity, as
Ian & Carole are once again self funding all their own expenses, entry
fees, fuel and accommodation.
If you can dig deep and find a few spare pounds it
will all be very much appreciated. It’s not a competition who can give
the most but if you do value this FREE regular
Dairy bulletin and Ian’s monthly Dairy Farmer article (now 26 years and still
going) then please give a little to show your appreciation.
The event is not a charity challenge, but more of a
non-competitive social week with like minded classic Mini enthusiasts aiming to
have a tour at the same time as raising money for a great UK Childrens
charity.
So please sponsor Ian & Carole where you can,
and don't forget you can increase the amount you donate with Gift Aid
(individuals only, not companies).
Please donate on line by clicking on: https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/englishbulldogsontour
OR
Send a cheque(s), made payable to either:
“Buttle UK “
Ian’s target is to raise £2,500 or more
Thank you all in advance
News
A matching scheme to boost fundraising efforts. An anonymous donor of Buttle
UK’s has offered to match, pound for pound, the total funds raised by the 5
most successful jobbers in this year’s rally, up to a maximum of £30,000!!
So for example Ian & Carole raise £2,500 and were
one of the top 5 fundraising totals our contribution to Buttle UK’s Chances for
Children campaign would actually be worth £5000! The 5 winners will be
announced at the Reunion Dinner March 2019 but for sure Ian plans to be in that
top 5 with your help.
Arla have announced a 1.09ppl milk price increase compromising of a
0.9ppl base price increase plus 0.19ppl quarterly currency adjustment.
The resulting 1st October standard litre price is 31.21ppl and
based on the manufacturing standard litre is 32.47ppl, which, if anyone plays
milk processor Top Trumps they will struggle to beat Arla in 2018.
The Arla UK organic milk price remains unchanged whilst it increases in
Sweden (3 Euro Cents) and Denmark (2 Euro Cents). Arla UK organic farmers will, however,
receive the 0.19ppl currency adjustment.
For Arla’s UK organic members the standard liquid litre price is 40.99ppl
and based on the manufacturing standard litre is 42.64ppl.
This latest increase certainly puts the cat amongst the pigeons and comes
at a time when most milk purchasers were hoping Arla would stand on possibly
even or cut its price.
1.2ppl
additional forecasted 13th payment for Arla members (25th September
2018)
As it’s calculated a further 1.2ppl is pencilled in by Arla as a 13th
payment, which whilst still to be approved by Arla’s BOR and depends on the
current business performance continuing until March 2019, will be additional
money to be added to an already healthy looking Arla member milk price.
0.9ppl milk
price increase for Sainsburys aligned suppliers – from 1st October (25th September 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.39ppl but see
below for trouble at Sainsburys!
0.57ppl
increase for Marks & Spencer’s (Muller aligned) - from 1st October (25th September 2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre milk price to 31.41ppl
Milk price
outlook is not good (25th September 2018)
All eyes are now focussed on Muller this weekend and whether it confirms
any price movement from November 1st.
Ian’s moles suggest a Muller price cut is very much on the cards, which
is not what Muller or any dairy farmers will want to hear. Given Muller’s 1st October liquid
standard litre price is 29.5ppl and Arla’s is 31.21ppl the gap is now an
unexplainable 1.71ppl. Also note in
today’s announcement Arla state “The outlook for milk price for the coming
months remains stable”, indicating the possibility of stand on or close to
stand on prices depending on market movements in the next month.
Muller farmers will be praying for a November stand on but it’s looking
challenging and if Muller drop the dam will burst as price cuts rain in for November
and December.
Anything Ian writes will not change the fundamentals, so don’t shoot the
messenger.
GDT prices continue to drop, futures have been falling for the past 5
consecutive weeks, UK production is up, German production +2.8% and imports of
cheese from Ireland in 2018 are at eye-watering record levels. Arla’s increase is great news but stand on
prices for November should not be criticised.
GDT Auction
prices continue to slide south for the 8th consecutive auction (25th September 2018)
Key movers in last Tuesday’s GDT auction were:
Cheddar down 3.5% to average US$3503 tonne
WMP down 1.8% to average US$2768 tonne
SMP down 1.1% to average US$1980 tonne
Butter down 0.1% to average US$4270 tonne
Average down 1.3% to average US2934 tonne with 39,143 tonnes sold.
This means in the last 8 GDT auctions the average price has dropped by
close to 20% to prices last seen in October 2016.
Sainsburys
under attack from its farmer suppliers (25th September 2018)
Sainsburys farmers in the North of England and Scotland are furious with
the retailer to the point several are claiming they are immediately seeking a
new milk buyer and want to exit the Sainsburys Dairy Development Group because
“its heads Sainsburys win and tails its dairy farmers lose.” On a practical note finding a new milk buyer
in Scotland looks challenging!
Sainsburys are half way through a series of regional farmer meetings,
which haven’t gone according to plan and parachuting any spin doctors and head
honchos in hasn’t placated some of their loyal switched on farmers.
The problem is if cost savings of 2p are achieved Sainsburys intend to
pocket the entire 2ppl with no sharing or benefit of the rewards to their
farmers. This means efficient farmers
are victims of their own success which is unfair and unacceptable.
In addition, the Sainsburys farm units have, on average, expanded but the
fixed amount added in for family labour at 1.44 head at the national
agricultural workers pay is being constantly diluted in the ppl COP as on farm
production increases. One simple
solution is to change the model to a ppl labour cost but that doesn’t suit
Sainsburys because it will cost them money.
The way the Sainsburys COP model deals with bought in feed is also under
attack, particularly from its 20 or so Scottish farmers. The cost of feed per tonne is that charged by
the Sainsburys buying groups price for all feed, however, Scottish farmers
can’t buy their feed at that price and are not part of the group buying.
Either the Scottish farmers feed price should be factored in to the model
or alternatively consideration to a Scottish regional Sainsburys COP will have
to be considered. One Sainsburys farmer
claims his actual COP is 4ppl above the model.
The final straw has been the recognition that for years the Sainsburys
COP model has costed calf milk powder and Megalac in at the feed wheat price,
which Sainsburys have held their hands up and agreed to correct.
The difference in costings is now recognised by Sainsburys as amounting
to 0.9ppl, which farmers have lost.
As further proof that Sainsburys don’t really care about their farmers
COP they have decided that of the 0.9ppl deficit farmers will be given 0.6ppl
but Sainsburys will retain 0.3ppl and, at the moment, there are no moves by
Sainsburys to back-date any of the missing money to its farmers to reflect the
shoddy calculations in previous years.
The Sainsburys farmers have had to scrutinise the costings themselves and
the end result is, after 11 years of working with British farmers, Sainsburys
appear to be on a suicide mission to wreck all the trust they have built up.
Some Sainsburys farmers no longer trust the COP model, no longer trust
Sainsburys and generally feel very disappointed and let down. All they are asking for is fair treatment
from the retail giant.
Back in 2015, Sainsburys took out large adverts in The Times, Telegraph,
Mail, Express and Star where the strapline was:
“At Sainsburys we support our British fresh milk farmers, does your
supermarket?”
followed by:
“We believe the farmers
who produce our milk should also make a living.”
These were fantastic supportive statements, which some of its Scottish
and North of England farmers now believe to be false in 2018.
Do Sainsburys still “want to work
with (its dairy) farmers to offer long term relationships with stable
profitable prices?”
The jury is out on this question but unless Sainsburys attitude towards
its 250 or so remaining SDDG farmers changes they look set to lose even more dissatisfied
producers. The situation is best
described as “fragile”.
Dairy
Crest’s profits look good for the first 6 months (25th September
2018)
Dairy Crest have announced a trading update for the last 6 month and
anticipate profit for the period to be above the same period 12 months earlier
as well as reporting a reduction in nett debt.
Dairy Crest’s interim results will be published on November 7th.
First Milk (25th September
2018)
Have published their financial results for the year to 31st March
2018. The key numbers are:
Members’ Capital Investment up £2.1m to £75.5m
Turnover up 22% to £252.7m (2017 - £206.5m)
Nett Bank Borrowings up 16% to £44.9m (2017 - £38.6m)
Nett Profit Down 47% to £3.2m (2017 - £6m)
Total Group Capital Reserves up 25% to 27.4m (2017 - £22m)
First Milk might still be in the bottom handful of milk purchaser’s
standard litre milk price league tables but at least they have significantly
narrowed the price gap and strengthened their position, in recent years. Significant cost, especially overhead cost,
has been stripped out under the captaincy of Shelagh Hancock and this reflects
in the numbers.
First Milk’s membership milk has halved in recent years but for sure
First Milk member moans are almost unheard of now and it’s an indisputable fact
that with no sales and marketing team, due to the long term deal struck with
Ornua, their focus is on making consistently high quality cheese with minimal
downgrades and they appear to be succeeding at it.
Freshways
wind up its Dairystix business (25th September 2018)
Freshways have wound up their UHT Dairystix business directly affecting
17 employees. The Dairystix brand was
launched in 2007 but by 2012 was in administration before it was resurrected. Freshways took the business on in 2014. Further details to follow but the numbers
rumoured will leave some creditors with a migraine.
Construction
of a 30 million litre dairy farming commences (25th
September 2018)
Construction of an eye watering 30 million litre fully integrated dairy
has started in Russia and will cost circa $633 million (£484 million) with
funds coming from a group who are recognised as the largest Vietnamese
agricultural investors.
This is the first of five farms in the pipeline with construction of all
five to commence by 2020.
The farm/unit will be fully integrated from the cow to the distribution
of dairy products and will house 50,000 cows at 5,800 litres/cow or 30,000 at
just under 10,000 litres a cow. Now
that’s what you call big!
Russia’s goal is to be self sufficient in dairy, replacing all dairy
imports, within the next 8 years, which translates to the necessity to increase
domestic production by 25%.
Dairy
Industry Woman of the Year Award (25th September 2018)
Jeanette Prince was presented with the Dairy Industry Woman of the Year
National Award at last week’s presentation dinner.
Jeanette is a Staffordshire organic farmer supplying Arla. She is also a founder member of the
Staffordshire Women’s Farming Union, Vice President of Staffordshire YFC and
has devoted many days to promoting and progressing the UK dairy industry.
The Regional Award was presented to Ceri Cryer a farmer and cheese maker
from Wiltshire who under the Brinkworth dairy brand sells her products to local
markets and at London Farmers’ Markets.
FOR
SALE- 2 Lely A4 Robots – Location Cumbria (25th September 2018)
Installed in January 2012, regularly serviced
& updated, washed out regularly since the cows were sold. Reason for the sale is the farm has been
sold.
They come with the facility to feed liquid as
well as cake, which is automatically calculated. No weigh cells but concrete
work already installed. Sold along with
computer, 130 collars, exit gates and two milk recording samplers.
For further details email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
WANTED
BY IAN (25th September 2018)
14 tonne JCB ditching bucket with circa 60mm pin fixings.
Note, not a 3 CX size this is for a proper JCB 814 digger not a Fisher
Price digger! If you know where there is
one please email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
0.85ppl
milk price rise for suppliers to Pensworth Dairy – from 1St
October (4th
September 2018)
This takes producers liquid standard litre
price to 29.8ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – 1st
September (4th September 2018)
This takes members’ standard liquid litre
price to 29.5ppl and standard manufacturing litre price to 30.45ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to First Milk – from 1st
September (4th September
2018)
This takes members’ standard liquid litre
price to 28.5ppl and standard manufacturing litre price to 29.47ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Payne’s Dairies – from 1st
September (4th September 2018)
This takes members’ standard liquid litre
price to 29.5ppl.
AMPE
and MCVE climb higher (4th September 2018)
AMPE is up +4.4% from July to 33.6ppl and
MCVE + 0.6% to 33.6ppl (see above). In
addition, AHDB Dairy report that Cream income is now worth 13.09ppl to a liquid
processor.
During August AHDB report increases in
wholesale prices for cream, butter and SMP all mainly weather driven, which is
making traders nervous, especially over possible declines in winter milk
production which all farmers are anticipating and by the time the trade realise
its happening nothing they do will reverse the decline!
AHDB are anticipating further small farm gate
milk price increases up to and including November based on the current milk
market value (a weighted average of AMPE & MCVE). That may be what the
number crunching suggests but it’s certainly not what a large number of GB milk
processors are budgeting for with most aiming to hold prices.
Arla
plans to pay out its 2018 profits to its farmers (4th
September 2018)
In a welcome, if not surprise, move Arla has
confirmed it proposes to pay its entire 2018 profits to its farmers recognising
many face serious financial pain as a result of the drought. The proposal will
be put to the Arla Board of Representatives at its October meeting.
If Arla’s nett profit target of 2.8% to 3.2% of
revenue is achieved the numbers indicate a potential supplementary payment of
circa £20,000 for a 1 million litre producer, however, this needs to be split
into a circa £9000 as a 13th payment producers are already entitled
to receive so the additional money paid out will be around £11,000 per farmer.
The total payment will likely be approved in
February 2019 when Arla’s end of year results are known.
It’s highly likely this proposal has been
instigated by the Danish and Swedish Arla farmers who have both clout and face
some serious financial additional costs as a result of the drought.
The point to ponder is whether
Arla executives are now assuming (possibly planning) that on October 1st,
November 1st and December 1st it will be a farm gate milk
price hold stand on with little, if any, chance of further farm gate milk
prices increases
Straw
exiting GB and hay going into power stations (4th September 2018)
Ian has spoken to two people who have
confirmed that significant quantities of straw have already been delivered to
Iceland, Denmark and Belgium with a further enquiry to deliver to Norway and
demand from all four countries is very strong.
In addition, one haulier is taking hay into a
power station due to the shortage of straw.
Anyone playing the straw market is unlikely to have budgeted for straw
going to Iceland in curtain sided trucks on back loads.
36%
profit slump for European giant milk processor Friesland Campina (FC) (4th
September 2018)
Friesland Campina’s half year results show a
whopping 35.6% year on year profit slump.
Friesland Campina previously announced the
early 2018 closure of two processing operations in France, both of which have
severely influenced these latest half year figures. The closures were announced a year ago as
part of Friesland Campina’s wholesale transformation scheme.
Arla
UK’s half years results (4th September 2018)
Arla’s half year UK revenue increased by 2.3%
to £961million with nett profit 2.2% versus 2.1% in 2017.
Arla’s 2018 financial year nett profit of
2.8% to 3.2% is considered achievable.
UK
secures £240million deal with China (4th September 2018)
China has agreed a five year deal to import
UK dairy products worth an estimated £240 million
Farm
Foods 40ppl offer opens up a Pandora’s Box (4th September 2018)
In the last bulletin we asked readers to
crack the milk code for the supplier of incredibly cheap milk on sale by Farm
Foods at 40ppl!
Numerous readers collected the Potter
equivalent of a Crackerjack pencil and all identified the supplier as Payne’s
Dairies.
What Ian wasn’t prepared for were details of
allegedly how Farm Foods have played out their recent October milk supply
tender.
The three incumbent suppliers to Farm Foods
today are Payne’s, Medina and Grahams Dairies (Scotland). Allegedly once Farm
Foods received new tenders from Medina and Payne’s they served notice to
terminate all three supply contracts with the suggestion that one of the big
two GB liquid processors was involved and had successfully tendered and taken
them all by storm as sole supplier to Farm Foods with a table topping price.
Whether this was 100% accurate is debatable
but for sure when three are given notice one or more is likely to bite back and
drop their prices even lower than what is rumoured to already be an eye
watering price of under 35ppl.
Reports indicate the outcome is that Medina
retains its region and Payne’s retains its region and takes Grahams region in
Scotland. So the losers, if you can call
it that, are Grahams Dairies and the winners are certainly Farm Foods.
This certainly appears to have been a
particularly aggressive tender and one processor called it a blood bath another
said it was tactical Farm Foods tendering.
Payne’s have certainly gained more volume and
highly likely for less revenue in ppl. Why is Payne’s so particularly keen to
build its total sales volumes?
That leaves one question? Who’s the villain and who’s the hero in this
process?
September 1st Milk Price league based on
www.milkprices.com standard litres
(August 1st prices in brackets)
(4th
September 2018)
The liquid standard litre 4% bf, 3.3%
protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million litres a year on EODC
but before seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing, B price additions,
capital retentions or annual incentive schemes. The manufacturing
standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of
4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.
Liquid Manufacturing
Standard
litre Standard litre
Arla Co-op Members 30.16 (30.16) 31.38 (31.38)
Crediton Dairy 30.00
(29.00) -
Wyke Farms 29.65
(29.15) 30.69 (30.18)
Barbers 29.58
(29.08) 30.68 (30.16)
South Caernarfon
Creameries 29.55 (28.81) 30.52 (29.78)
Wensleydale
Creamery (Cheese) 29.50 (29.00) 30.45 (29.95)
Payne’s 29.50
(29.00) -
Meadow Foods 29.50
(28.50) -
Yew Tree Dairies 29.50 (28.50) -
Belton 29.50
(28.50) 30.25 (29.25)
Muller 29.50
(28.00) -
Dairy Crest
Davidstow 29.32
(29.32) 30.40 (30.40)
Fresh Milk Company
(Lactalis) 29.00 (29.00) 30.03 (30.03)
Glanbia 28.99
(28.03) 30.00 (29.00)
First Milk Co-op
Members 28.50 (28.00) 29.47 (28.95)
Arla Direct 28.00
(28.00) -
Joseph Heler
(Cheese) (Answers
on a postcard)
Information request on Halloumi (4th
September 2018)
Do you know anyone
in the UK who producers Halloumi? If you do please email
ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
FOR
SALE- 2 Lely A4 Robots – Location Cumbria (4th September 2018)
Installed in January 2012, regularly serviced
& updated, washed out regularly since the cows have been sold. Reason for the sale is the farm has been
sold.
They come with the facility to feed liquid as
well as cake, which is automatically calculated. No weigh cells but concrete
work already installed, Sold along with computer, 130 collars, exit gates and
two milk recording samplers.
For further details email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk
ENGLAND V USA (4th
September 2018)
Venue: Wembley
Stadium
Date: Thursday
15th November – KO 19:45 hours
Up to 4 tickets available at £10.00 per ticket
discount.
Email ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk, if you are
interested.
1.5ppl increase for suppliers to Grahams Dairies, Scotland – from 1st
September (21st August
2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.5ppl.
1ppl increase for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1st
September (21st August
2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.5ppl and based on the www.milkprices.com manufacturing standard litre price of
29.88ppl (Chester) & 29.75ppl (Cumbria).
0.5ppl increase for suppliers to Wyke Farms (Cheese) – from 1st
September (21st August
2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.65ppl and the www.milkprices.com manufacturing standard litre price to
30.69ppl.
0.5ppl increase for suppliers to Pattemores – from 1st
September (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (21st August 2018)
This takes producers’ liquid standard litre
milk price to 29.5ppl and the www.milkprices.com manufacturing standard litre price to
30.47ppl.
Arla members milk price stand on for September @ 30.16ppl/31.38ppl (21st
August 2018)
Arla have announced a stand on milk price from
September 1st for both its organic and conventional suppliers.
The standard liquid litre price for August and
September will be 30.16ppl. and for TSDG farmers 31.58ppl with Morrisons
farmers receiving 31.14ppl. Based on a
manufacturing standard litre the price
remains at 31.38ppl.
With only First Milk left to declare its
September milk price once it’s confirmed we will pull together and publish a 1st
September standard litre milk price league table.
GDT auction results continue to head South (21st
August 2018)
Below are the last two GDT auction results,
including today’s, which come as a warning that internationally prices are no
longer levelling out. All prices quoted
are in US$. Note, today’s tonnage was
down by 6% and the number of bidders down by 17.3% (33 bidders).
7th
August 21st
August (today)
Average Price $3136 $3044/tonne (-3.6%)
Quantity Sold 34076
tonnes 32041 tonnes (-5.9%)
Number of Bidders 191 158
(-17.3%)
Butter $4802/tonne
(-3.2%) $4392/tonne (-8.5%)
Cheddar $3663/tonne
(-1.3%) $3484/tonne (-4.7%)
WMP $2958/tonne
(-0.1%) $2883/tonne (-2.1%)
SMP $1972/tonne
(-0.3%) $1951/tonne (-1.3%)
Brief Market Outlook (21st August 2018)
The on farm position requires no explanation
it’s set to be a very expensive autumn and winter for many UK dairy farmers
with little chance of production forecasts being achieved given that most are
well into first cut silage and second cut silage is either non-existent or
second class in terms of milk production.
Most processors realise that at current milk
prices coupled with increasing costs production is set to fall.
Generally, EU and world wholesale markets are
cooling off in terms of butter, cheese and powder. The same is reflected in futures
pricing. GB production is now declining
with AHDB dairy reporting that weekly milk deliveries are running at almost 1%
below the equivalent week in 2017.
26.08ppl Fonterra forecast 2017/2018 farm gate milk price (21st
August 2018)
New Zealand co-op Fonterra has revised its
2017/2018 farm gate milk forecast to NZ$6.70 per kg milk solids equivalent to a
UK liquid standard litre price of 26.08ppl.
Note, this is for last year not the current year.
2.67ppl organic milk price reduction for Arla members who utilise a
derogation (21st August 2018)
It’s a hot potato but Arla have confirmed that
any UK organic supplier who utilises a derogation to use non-organic forage,
including those who only use the derogation for young stock, will suffer a
2.67ppl deduction and their milk will be segregated and go into the Arla
conventional pool. Arla’s organic milk
price for September is held at 40.8ppl based on a liquid standard litre and
42.45ppl based on a standard manufacturing litre.
Arla to help distribute
Forage Aid for UK farmers (21st August 2018)
Arla is offering logistics support to help
Forage Aid by delivering emergency supplies of animal feed to livestock farmers
during the extreme drought conditions.
Graham Wilkinson talks about why it is
important for farmers to support farmers in these challenging conditions;
"Last year our logistics colleagues did a
fantastic job of supporting Forage Aid by helping them distribute emergency
supplies to farmers impacted by the Cumbrian floods and now we have a very
different threat to our farmers and their livestock due to the extreme drought
conditions. Forage Aid is a fantastic charity and it makes me extremely proud
that a farmer owned business like ours can support other farmers at their time
of need in this way."
Forage Aid is the charity that supports
farmers whose livestock has been affected by an extreme weather event by providing
forage and/or bedding to those in need.
40ppl milk on offer by FarmFoods – Who’s the processor? (21st
August 2018)
A jaw dropping promotion by FarmFoods of 4
litres of whole or semi-skimmed milk for £1.60 has caused a bit of a stir. From the leaflet the code reads like
UKOHO29EC. Two middle ground usual
suspects names are in circulation but rather than setting hares running it
would be good to crack the code and print the name of the processor. If any reader can crack the code please email
Ian (ianpotter@ipaquotas.co.uk)
1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Grahams
Dairies Scotland – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.5ppl
1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Muller – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.5ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Belton
Farm (Cheese) – from 1st September
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price litre to 29.5ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30.25ppl (3rd August 2018)
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Yew Tree
Dairies – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price litre to 29.5ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Glanbia
(Cheese) – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28.99ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30ppl
1ppl milk prices increase for suppliers to Joseph
Heler Cheese – from 1st September (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (3rd August 2018)
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to The Fresh
Milk Company – from 1st August (3rd
August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre 29ppl manufacturing 30.03ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Wensleydale Creamery – from 1st
August (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre 29ppl manufacturing 29.95ppl
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Pensworth – from 1st September
(3rd August 2018)
This takes
producer’s standard liquid litre 28.95ppl
0.8ppl milk price increase for Payne’s Dairies – from 1st August (3rd
August 2018)
This takes
producer’s standard liquid litre to 29ppl
0.8ppl milk price increase for suppliers and
members of First Milk – from 1st
August (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.95ppl
0.75ppl milk
price increase for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries (Cheese) – from 1st September (3rd August 2018)
This takes producers
standard liquid litre price to 29.55ppl and based on a standard manufacturing
litre to 30.53ppl
0.7ppl milk price increase for Arla direct
suppliers – from 1st August (3rd August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and manufacturing 29.19ppl
0.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Barbers
(Cheese) – from 1st September (3rd
August 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price to 29.58ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 30.68ppl
0.5ppl Extreme weather supplement for suppliers to
Dairy Crest Davidstow (cheese) – from 1st
September (3rd August 2018)
This is a
supplement which will be reviewed monthly and is not a price increase but is a
payment to assist supplying farmers who are struggling with the drought and
additional expense.
This means no
increase in milk price so a Dairy Crest Producer will continue to receive
29.32ppl from September 1st based on a standard liquid litre and
30.4ppl based on a standard manufacturing litre.
Paine Partners sell their Meadow Foods share after
less than 2 years ownership (3rd
August 2018)
Their has been no
secret that US based Paine and Partners have been keen to exit their Meadow
Foods investment and have now sold their shares to Exponent a UK private equity
firm after less than two years of buying them from the Pickering and Chantler
families.
At last AHDB production figures confirm reality on
the ground (3rd
August 2018)
Several farmers
have been questioning reports from AHDB claiming UK milk production was not
dropping in July.
One such farmer
stated “How on earth can AHDB Dairy claim on farm production has not dropped
with no grass anywhere, a serious shortage of fodder, following a sh*t spring,
many cattle on full winter rations?”.
Well according to
its latest update production dropped below those of July 2017 with week ending
21st July down 1.2%/day
Arla’s
Organic stance turns sour (3rd August 2018)
Arla’s 30th July statement concerning
its No Stance on organic feed derogations
is certainly causing a stir and could soon turn sour on the European
Giant.
The main bone of contention is the words
“Please be aware that Arla’s position is that this (the no stance on utilising
a derogation) will also include exemptions for the feeding of non-organic
forage to dairy young stock”.
So, on the one hand the two organic
certification bodies viz OF&G and the Soil Association are willing to
issues derogations under the EU regulations but Arla are saying that’s not good
enough for us.
Ironically the Soil Association certify Arla
for its organic milk intake!
For the man in the street feeding non-milking
young stock non-organic feed on welfare grounds when fodder is short is
unlikely to be of concern.
Arla may have to revisit this decision because some of its organic
suppliers are clearly unhappy as are the two organic certification Authorities.
It’s a complicated area and includes things
like TB derogations. Question is will Arla stick 2 fingers up and say to O F
& G and the Soil Association stuff your regulations, we are doing our own
thing crisis or no crisis. For some
organic farmers it’s just adding pressure to what’s set to be a very difficult
and extremely expensive Autumn and Winter.
Correction to Ian’s August Dairy Farmer Article (3rd August 2018)
The responses to
this weeks August article was frankly phenomenal, so thankyou for all those who
emailed Ian. However most respondents supporting
my jottings were on the ball in pointing out Ian’ obvious typo when stated that
Germany and the UK have more than 200 million flexitarians. It should have
stated 20 million. Apologies
August 1st Milk Price league based on www.milkprices.com standard litres (3rd August 2018)
The liquid standard litre 4% bf, 3.3%
protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million litres a year on EODC
but before seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing, B price additions,
capital retentions or annual incentive schemes. The manufacturing
standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of
4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.
Liquid
standard litre Manufacturing
standard litre (cheese)
Arla Co-op members 30.16 31.38
Crediton Dairy 30.00 -
Dairy Crest
Davidstow 29.32 30.4
Wyke Farms 29.15 30.18
Barbers 29.08 30.16
Fresh Milk Company
(lactalis) 29.00 30.03
Wensleydale
Creamery (cheese) 29.00 29.95
Payne’s 29.00 -
South Caernarfon
Creameries 28.81 29.78
Yew Tree Dairies 28.50 -
Belton 28.50 29.25
Meadow Foods 28.50 -
Glanbia 28.03 29.00
Arla Direct 28.00 -
Muller 28.00 -
First Milk Co-op
members 28.00 28.95
Joseph Heler
(cheese)
0.85ppl milk price increase for Arla members – from 1st August
(24th July 2018)
This is a 1 Euro
Cent increase, which equates to 0.85ppl addition to the standard liquid litre
to give a 1st August price of 30.16ppl and a 0.88ppl addition to the
standard manufacturing litre to give 31.38ppl.
No change in
respect of the Arla organic milk price, which remains at 40ppl (liquid) and
40.8ppl (manufacturing)
This increase has
been attributed to the confirmed hot weather, which has impacted negatively on
Arla’s European milk intake.
Arla says no organic feed derogations (24th July 2018)
Arla has decided
not to utilise any milk from UK farms who obtain a derogation to feed
non-organic fodder/feed as a measure to maintain consumer confidence in Arla’s
branded organic products.
It is expected
that derogations will be issued by various authorities very soon as a result of
the exceptionally hot weather, including the UK.
Any farmer who
uses the derogation and feeds non-organic feed will find his or her milk
excluded from Arla’s organic products until six months after the farm returns
to full organic forage. It is
anticipated that from September 1st Arla will have two organic milk
pool prices viz: farmers who continue to feed only organic feed and a lower
price for those who obtain a derogation.
Sadly for some farmers the need to obtain a derogation asap will not be
optional.
First Milk appoints
new Chairman (24th
July 2018)
First
Milk has appointed Chris Thomas as non-executive Chairman to replace Clive
Sharpe from 1st August.
Chris
has held a number of senior executive positions in businesses like Tulip UK, St
Ivel, PepsiCo and Mars.
First Milk to invest £6.5million
in its Haverfordwest Creamery (24th
July 2018)
This
will come over the next 2 years and will boost the sites cheese output and
efficiency.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to Crediton
Dairy plus 30ppl 2018 guaranteed minimum – from 1st
September (20th July 2018)
Crediton’s latest
1ppl price increase takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 30ppl,
a price which Crediton have committed to hold until at least 31st
December 2018 as a minimum floor price not a maximum.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Pattermores – from 1st August (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (20th July 2018)
0.75ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Pensworth Dairies – from 1st July (20th
July 2018)
This takes producers’
standard liquid litre milk price to 27.95ppl
Auction average down another 1.7% (20th July 2018)
Last week’s GDT
auction produced the 4th consecutive average price fall in only 6
weeks with the average achieved down 1.7% to US$3222 to its lowest point in
2018 and hot on the heels of an eye-watering 5% drop only two weeks ago.
Volumes available
were down 4% to 25,454 tonnes and the negative trend is a concern, particularly
for New Zealand dairy farmers.
Notable prices
were:
Butter down 8.1% to average US$4953 tonne
Cheddar down 3.3%
to average US$3596 tonne
SMP up 0.8% to average US$1959 tonne
WMP up 1.5% to average US$2973 tonne
Market Update (20th
July 2018)
The general trend
is still negative.
Butter futures on the
EEX were down 1.43% on the week, which takes the accumulated total drop to 11%
in the past 6 weeks.
SMP futures on the
EEX were down 1.63% on the week, which takes the accumulated total drop to 5%
in the past month.
To make matters
worse the value of sterling strengthened against the Euro.
Intervention Sales (20th July 2018)
The EU sold only
2,400 tonnes of its June 2016 SMP stocks this week at prices ranging from €1125
tonne to €1200 tonne (£1,004 to £1,071).
This is a
disappointing result both in terms of tonnage sold and the price achieved
compared to the tender result achieved only a month earlier when 23,532 tonnes
sold (10 x this months) for between €1195 to €1400 (£1,067 to £1,250)
The Commission now
look unlikely to achieve their goal of clearing all remaining Intervention SMP
stocks by the end of 2018. Note, for the
October & November tenders there will be two tenders each month.
Production (20th
July 2018)
EU total milk
production January to April is up 2% year on year.
Denmark saw its
May production the largest on record since quotas were introduced in May
1984. Germany up 3.2% (January to April
2018), France +3.7%
Glanbia Cheese to build a new 45,000 tonne
Mozzarella factory (20th July 2018)
Glanbia Cheese
have announced plans to build a state of the art 45,000 tonnes per annum
Mozzarella cheese factory in Portlaoise, Co Laois, Central Southern Ireland.
At the moment
Glanbia produce around 90,000 tonnes of Mozarella at two plants one in North
Wales and one in Northern Ireland. So,
if all three plants are operational the new output will represent a 50%
increase in output.
The expectation is
for the new plant to be operational by 2020, subject to planning
permission. It involves an investment of
€130 million (£117 million) creating 78 full time jobs.
Belton Farm announces £1.25 million investment (20th July 2018)
Belton Farm
cheese-makers from Shropshire have announced a significant £1.25m investment
programme to upgrade and upscale its current processing facility. Belton is enjoying sales increases,
particularly with of its Red & White fox as well as its Belton Farm branded
cheeses, both domestically and abroad, particularly in the US market as well as
in Canada, South Africa, Australia and the EU.
In addition, Belton
are seeking to selectively recruit a handful of new local milk suppliers to
join its existing family of 80 supplying farmers.
Arla and Yeo Valley deal is cleared by the CMA (20th July 2018)
The Competition
& Markets Authority (CMA) has given the unconditional green light to the
February 2018 announcement that Arla Foods had agreed terms for a licence to
utilise the Yeo Valley brand for Arla’s organic liquid, cheese and spreads.
Yeo Valley
yoghurts, cream and dairy desserts business will remain under the ownership of
The Mead family. Suppliers to the Coombe
Farms Milk Group will move across to supply Arla.
Arla warns that Brexit could hjt UK dairy consumers
pockets (20th July 2018)
Following a report
“The Impact of Brexit on the UK Dairy Sector” produced by the London School of
Economics, Arla has issued a warning that if the findings in the report prove
to be correct in terms of restricted access to labour and non-tariff barriers,
UK consumers will likely see the availability of butter, yoghurts and cheese
restricted and at higher prices.
The report not
only points to the potential economic consequences of a farm labour shortage
but also in terms of vets, lorry drivers, etc.
The report also
notes the UK has the second largest dairy trade deficit in the world at up to
16% with 98% of the UK’s dairy imports currently originating from the EU and no
doubt a big slug from Arla!
Warble Fly Warning (20th July 2018)
A reader from North
Devon has alerted us to the presence of a significant infestation of warble
flies and the urgent need to be vigilant and take precautions. They even provided a photograph of the
unwelcome beast on a cow, which fortunately had been treated.
If you encounter
warble fly or any other unusual and unwanted pests in this dry spell, please
email us.
1.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Blackmore Vale Farm – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29ppl.
1.25ppl milk price increase for suppliers
to Barbers Farmhouse Cheesemakers – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing price to 30.16ppl and standard liquid litre
price to 29.08ppl. Barbers continue to
maintain a very healthy rolling 12 month pay out over 30ppl (30.08ppl) based on
a manufacturing standard litre with 31.23ppl paid for June milk above 104% of
base milk volume, which is effectively a transparent B milk price.
1.25ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery, Hawes – from 1st
July (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing price to 28.95ppl and based on a standard
liquid price of 28ppl.
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers
to Belton Farm (Cheesemakers) – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing price to 29.25ppl and the standard litre
price to 28.5ppl
0.89ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Muller’s Co-operative Dairy Group – from 1st August (9th
July 2018)
This takes producers’
standard liquid price to 28.88ppl
0.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Meadow Foods – from 1st
August (9th July 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.5ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre 28.88ppl (Chester) and 28.75ppl (Cumbria)
0.5ppl milk price increase for
suppliers to Yew Tree Dairies (AKA Woodcock’s) – from 1st August (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (9th July
2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.5ppl
What are Arla tipped to do for August? (9th July 2018)
Our inside
knowledge that Muller would stand on with its August milk price at 28ppl proved
to be bang on the money and similar reliable intelligence has firmly indicated
that Arla will likely do the same for August and remain at 29.31ppl (standard
liquid litre price) to be followed by a 1st September increase.
Certainly this
weather is hurting and escalating on farm milk production costs both for this
winter and the here and now for those who are attempting to maintain forecast
production. Without more money in the
kitty to pay for the additional cost and to repay the previous price drop
financial mess many will likely say blow the production or even worse throw in
the towel. Time will tell whether our
information on Arla’s non movement for August is as good as Ian believes it
is.
July and August
will see Mother Nature have the last say on milk production and by default
determine milk prices and will be a favourite to win a tug of war against
claims weakening cream and butter prices.
AMPE & MCVE both pushing north (9th July 2018)
The June AHDB dairy
indicator prices show AMPE price 33.23ppl, whilst its sister, MCVE
32.77ppl. (See above table)
5% Crash in GDT Auction results (3rd July 2018)
Today’s 10th anniversary GDT
auction is no reason for farmers to celebrate as the average price crashed back
by a whopping 5% to average $3232 for the 26,519 tonnes sold, which is
the third consecutive fall in only 4 weeks.
Notable prices were:
WMP down 7.3% to average US $2905 tonne
SMP down 4.6% to average US $1913 tonne
Cheddar down 4.3% to average US $3713 tonne
Butter down 4.0% to average US $5390 tonne
The overall index has fallen by US $405
(11.1%) in only 7 weeks.
The auction started in July 2008 just as the
global crash in dairy prices started to go in freefall. During these 10 years
more than $22 billion (£16.7 billion) of dairy products have been traded to
buyers in more than 80 countries.
1.75ppl
milk price increase for Dairy Crest suppliers - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 30.40ppl
1.5ppl
milk price increase for Wyke Farms (Cheesemakers) - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 30.18ppl and standard liquid price to 29.15ppl
1.5ppl
milk price increase for Lactalis/The Fresh Milk Company (Cheesemakers)
suppliers –
from 1st July (29th June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing price
to 28.99ppl and standard liquid price to 28ppl
1.25ppl
milk increase for South Caernarfon Creameries suppliers - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 29.78ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for Glanbia Cheese Suppliers – from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
price to 29ppl and standard liquid price to 28.03ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for Paynes Dairies suppliers – from 1st
July (29th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid price
to 28.2ppl
0.75ppl
milk price increase for Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1st
July (29th
June 2018)
0.33ppl
milk price increase for Tesco/TSDG dedicated suppliers - from 1st
August (29th
June 2018)
This increase is as a result of the quarterly
review of prices for feed fertilizer and fuel. This takes producers’ standard
liquid price to 30.17ppl
No
price change for Muller suppliers in August (29th June 2018)
Muller have confirmed that there will be no
price change for its suppliers in August, which is what we were informed 10
days ago and resulted in us commenting in last week’s bulletin “and
in one case almost decided privately not to push through an August price
increase.” The Muller standard
liquid litre price for August will therefore remain at 28ppl.
What’s
the headline outlook (29th June 2018)
Commodity prices for SMP and butter continue
to weaken in the forward and spot markets, which is of concern. However, the current spell of hot weather across
Europe was the main talking point at this week’s Dairy UK Dinner and
Seminar with most realising production is set to drop below forecast unless the
weather changes.
Spot milk is reflecting the mood of buyers
with trade now at 35ppl and trending up on almost a daily basis.
Several milk purchasers have notified
producers of July and August milk price increase stressing the need to maintain
profiles and supplies as well as updated forecasts.
As we all know mother nature can wreck any
predictions in a matter of days and the only sure way to guarantee farmers will
feed compound to replace lost milk production is if the milk price incentivises
them.
Arla are now leading the charge and from the
figures above some are certainly struggling to keep up with them.
Dale
Farm secure Number 1 position as cheddar supplier to Lidl (29th
June 2018)
Lidl has signed a deal with Northern Ireland
based co-op subsidiary Dale Farm to supply cheddar cheese to 8,000 Lidl stores in
22 countries, including the UK, Europe and USA.
In turn Lidl is now Dale Farm’s biggest
cheddar cheese customer. The co-op is the UK’s largest indigenous co-op with
1300 members.
There will likely be one or more losers but
we haven’t found out yet who they are and whether the cheese was made from UK
milk.
1.92ppl milk price increase for Arla members from
July 1st puts Arla back in front (22nd June 2018)
On the day Ash
Amirahmadi takes up his position as top honcho in Arla UK (see story below) his
co-op members will be in a UK milk league table champions league position with
this latest increase.
This takes the 1st
July standard liquid litre price to 29.31ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 30.5ppl with a clear hint that the expectation is for further
increases to follow soon. This price increase
serves as a challenge to most other milk purchasers some of whom will be
scratching their heads having considered and in one case almost
decided privately not to push through an August price increase. This policy
will need to be revisited and as one farmer emailed Ian it’s a wake up call to
others to up their game and quickly, especially if they want to recruit more
suppliers or even retain existing ones. The race to the top is back on.
Arla’s organic
standard litre price remains unchanged at 42.85ppl (manufacturing) and 40.80ppl
(liquid) mainly due to the fact organic milk supply continues to increase.
2ppl milk price increase for Arla Directs – from 1st July (22nd June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 27.3ppl
1.5ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Crediton Dairy – from 1st August (22nd
June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 29ppl
1.25ppl milk price increase for Grahams Dairies
suppliers – from 1st July (22nd
June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 28ppl
0.674ppl milk price increase for Freshways
suppliers – from June 1st (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (22nd June 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 26.95ppl
GDT auction index down 1.2% (22nd June 2018)
This week’s GDT
auction saw second consecutive average decline.
Notable prices
were:
Cheddar down 3.6%
to average US$3848 tonne
SMP down 1.1% to
average US$2003 tonne
WMP down 1.0% to
average US$3189 tonne
Butter up 0.8% to
average US$3488 tonne
Correction (22nd
June 2018)
In last week’s
bulletin we made a typo error when we quoted the new Sainsburys standard litre
price as 24.48ppl when it should have been 28.48ppl. Apologies and the error was quickly corrected
on our website www.ipaquotas.com/quotanews.htm
European Commission sell a further 23,533 tonnes of
Intervention SMP (22nd June 2018)
The total offered
in this month’s tender was 144,844 tonnes and the cheapest sold was at €1195
tonne, circa £1050. This leaves around
280,000 tonnes in store. Back in May
41,958 tonnes were sold.
Viking rule of Arla UK comes to a
sudden end (19th
June 2018)
Danishman Thomas Pietrangeli will leave his
position as UK MD of Arla UK in 10 days time to be replaced by Ash Amirahmadi,
who has quickly risen through the Arla ranks since he joined the business in
2004 and is popular in many quarters.
This is a seismic move by Arla, who for more
than 10 years have always had one of 3 Danish rulers heading up Arla’s UK
operation. Now it’s essentially a home grown non-Danish person heading up
the UK operation which most will welcome.
Ash has certainly had a good grounding having
worked on the farmer member, retail, trading and the commercial divisions of
Arla. There are certainly some big changes taking place at Arla and this one
looks like a change in Danish attitude and perhaps the realisation that if a
fourth Dane had been parachuted in to take charge of the UK, the business could
have had a backlash to wrestle with.
1.2ppl milk price increase for Pensworth Dairy
suppliers – from 1st July (15th
June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.2ppl.
1.2ppl milk price increase for First Milk members – from 1st July (15th June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.2ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.12ppl.
1ppl milk price increase for South Caernarfon
Creameries suppliers – from 1st
July (15th June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27.6ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.53ppl.
1ppl milk price increase for Meadow Foods suppliers – from 1st July (15th June 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28ppl and based on a standard
manufacturing litre to 28.38ppl (Chester) and 28.25ppl (Cumbria).
0.36ppl milk price increase for Sainsburys Dairy
Group suppliers – from 1st July (15th
June 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.48ppl (Muller) and 28.36ppl (Arla). The increase is based on the quarterly cost tracker review, in particular an increase in the cost of feed.
Concerning Discounts (15th June 2018)
1.
Tesco do half price Cathedral City
In a surprise move
Tesco are now selling No. 1 cheese brand, Cathedral City Cheddar at an eye
watering £5 per kilo. One headline
described the deal as “insanely cheap”.
The normal Tesco
price for Cathedral City is or rather was £10 kilo.
2.
Cash & Carry’s discount Yew Tree milk to only 65p
Notorious
Wolverhampton cash & carry dairy suppliers, Johal Dairies, are evidently
the suppliers of milk, which is advertised as Yew Tree milk at 65p for 2 litres
suddenly down by 27% from 89p. The price
drop started in the first week of June.
1ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st
June (4th June 2018)
This takes producers standard liquid litre price to
27.2ppl
1.5ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Pattemores – from 1st
July PRODUCER NOTIFIED (4th June
2018)
This takes producers standard liquid litre price to 28ppl
and based on a manufacturing standard litre to 28.93ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheese) – from 1st
July (4th June 2018)
This takes producers standard liquid litre price to
27.5ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to 28.25ppl
1.25ppl
milk price increase for Muller Directs – from 1st July (4th
June 2018)
This takes producers standard liquid litre price to
28ppl
1ppl
milk price increase for suppliers to Glanbia Cheese – from 1st
July (4th June 2018)
This takes producers standard liquid litre price to
27.1ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to 28ppl
0.65ppl
Milk Price for Suppliers to Dairy Crest Davidstow – from 1st
July (4th June 2018)
This takes producers standard liquid litre price to
27.57ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to 28.65ppl
Market Outlook and
Statistics as 30ppl for June Milk quickly becomes an unexpected reality (4th June
2018)
In
general the outlook is cautiously optimistic and those at the most responsive
end of commodity market movements will receive over 30ppl for June deliveries.
Yew
Tree Dairy have already notified producers on their ingredients contract that
their June price will be over 30ppl based on standard manufacturing contract
and in excess of 29ppl based on a standard liquid litre.
Meanwhile,
Barbers Farmhouse Cheesemakers suppliers receive 31.08ppl on their over base
litres (AMPE 33.08 minus 2ppl). So a farmer with a base of 100,000 litres for
the month has 4% added and if he produces say 110,000 litres he receives
31.08ppl on the 6,000 litres above the 104%. On the 104,000 litres for May,
June & July the Barbers price has been a constant 28.87 based on a
manufacturing standard litre.
During
May AHDB dairy calculated average UK butter prices increased by 11% (£520
tonne) to £5180.
Despite
the fact the European Commission sold 42,000 tonnes of Intervention SMP at a
knock down price it appears to have help boost the price for fresh SMP which in
May increased by 14% (£165 tonne) to £1320.
Last
but not least cream values increased by 13% (£270 tonne) to £2350 this increase
is worth an extra 1.6ppl to a liquid processor.
Spot
milk is trading circa 25p litre but most processors are close to capacity and
unable to take much if any advantage from this price.
169 jobs to go at
Arla as Llandyrnog and others are closed (4th June 2018)
Arla
has announced that 169 jobs are under consultation in the UK as part of its 3
year calcium transformation programme.
Today’s
announcement will see Arla’s Llandyrnog Creamery close impacting on 97 staff,
its Malpas cheese packing site close impacting on 43 jobs, closure of its
Lockerbie cheese packing facility impacting on 14 jobs plus a further 15 roles
at its Leeds HQ.
The
total anticipated redundancy comes to 169 and the work from all three
facilities will be redistributed to Arlas other premises. A further 180 job
cuts are understood to have been announced in mainland Europe.
The
Llandyrnog factory has undoubtedly been severely affected by Arla’s loss of the
Sainsburys cheese business, estimated to be somewhere between 13 to 14,000
tonnes year, which must have been the final nail in the coffin for a factory
operating at below 50% capacity.
So
whilst Arla is or perhaps was one of the UK’s largest cheese producers as well
as the worlds 5th largest dairy processor it is certainly finding
life tough and indeed downsizing at the same time as two of its main GB
competitors are making major investments to increase production.
Last
week Dairy Crest announced a £75 million investment in its Davidstow Creamery
to boost factory output by 23,000 tonnes. In addition, Wyke Farms have just
announced the building of a new dairy which will see its existing 18,000 tonnes
increased by almost 3 fold to 50,000 tonnes once its various phases are
completed.
Challenging
times for Arla both in the UK and globally and today’s announcement is expected
to be the first of several.
Arla serves notice on
11 supplying farmers (4th June 2018)
Its
not a good week for Arla globally with the news that 11 of its 33 supplying
farmers to its Hollandtown, Wisconsin USA plant have received termination
notices due to a serious milk over supply.
These
are the latest in an alarming list of notices served on US dairy farmers,
including 75 farmers supplying Grassland Dairy and 100 under notice from Dean
Foods. Several believe more farmers are likely to receive similar notices to
these 186 farmers.
Wyke
Farms to build 50,000 tonne cheese factory (4th June
2018)
Wyke from Somerset are set to build Ivy’s Dairy a
50,000 tonnes facility named after the Clothier family’s famous Grandmother Ivy
Clothier. The dairy will be built over a period of eight years.
Muller
signs up gold medallist as part of its brand ambassador (4th June
2018)
Commonwealth Games and World Indoor Championship
gold medallist Katarina Johnson-Thompson has been signed up as the Muller brand
ambassador and joins a squad of 10 top athletes promoting the Muller brand
which ranks 7th in the Grocers Top 100 British Brands
1.15ppl
increase in Arlas standard litre price from 1st June (25th May 2018)
Arla have announced a 0.88ppl (1 Euro Cent)
member price increase from June 1st. In addition, the 0.27ppl artic loading supplement is now
achieved by more that half of Arla members and consequently this amount will be
added to both the liquid and manufacturing standard litre prices published by www.milkprices.com.
The 1.15ppl total increase gives the following
standard litre prices
Liquid standard litre 27.51ppl
Manufacturing standard litre 28.58ppl
1ppl milk price
increase for Arla direct suppliers from 1st June - This increases the standard litre
price to 25.3ppl (25th
May 2018)
0.8ppl milk price
increase for Helers Cheese suppliers from 1st June (25th May 2018)
The UK’s peak daily
production passes as MCVE & AMPE both increase (25th May 2018)
Last
weekend saw the UK reach its peak daily production in what has been undoubtedly
a much smaller spring flush as a result of nature’s intervention.
At
the same time the May AMPE increased to 33.08ppl up 4.18ppl in 4 weeks with
MCVE up to 32.33ppl an increase of 0.95ppl
Muller / Lidl 28ppl
fixed price contract closes fully subscribed (25th
May 2018)
The innovative fixed price hedge offered to
Muller direct suppliers to fix up to 50% of their milk for up to three years is
now fully subscribed and closed.
Almost all of the 180million litres on offer
has been allocated with percentages committed varying from 10% to the maximum
50% and averaging 40% for each farmer with the majority of the deals for
the maximum 3 years.
It has certainly been a successful launch and
no doubt Muller will be hoping farmers don’t leave signing up and
committing to similar deals in future until the last 48 hours as happened with
this offering but that’s wishful thinking and reminds Ian of the quota trading
years.
GDT
average increases by 1.9% with talk of new butter record prices to come (25th May 2018)
Last Tuesday’s GDT auction recorded a 1.9%
all products average increase to US $3637 compared to that achieved two weeks
ago.
The butter average was up a further 2.4% and
has jumped by 30% in the past six months. There is now talk of a likely global
butter shortage which is tipped to top trump and eclipse the record highs
recorded in 2017.
Key price changes were
Cheddar index up 4.4% to average US $4205
tonne
SMP index up 3% to average US $2047
tonne
Butter index up 2.4% to average US $5787
tonne
WMP index up 0.2% to average US $3226 tonne
Dairy
Crest to invest £85 million and will require an additional 200 million
litres/ year (25th May 2018)
Of the total £85 million spend £75 million
will be invested in Dairy Crests flagship Davidstow Creamery and will
result in the cheese output from the factory increasing from 54,000 to 77,000
tonnes a year by 2023.
The creamery in Cornwall will require an
additional 200 million litres a year from a combination of its existing 330
suppliers as well as some new recruits
0.5ppl May milk price reduction cancelled by
Grahams Dairies (11th May 2018)
In a move
other milk purchasers should take note of Grahams Dairies have rescinded their
confirmed 0.5ppl milk price reduction, which took effect from May 1st. This results in an above average
producer standard liquid litre price of 26.75ppl for May deliveries.
In a letter
to its suppliers, Grahams Dairies focus on the fact they are agile and that
markets have strengthened.
So whilst
others have retained their May milk price cut Grahams appear to have done the
right thing by their farmers. They could
easily have gone down 0.5ppl for May and back up 0.5ppl for June and banked the
difference. The big question is whether
rescinding price cuts will be permitted in the government’s new compulsory milk
contracts, which removes milk buyer discretion and agility. An idea of the contracts detail is
anticipated very soon.
In the letter
Grahams point out that actual deliveries to the dairy are currently running 3%
below farmers forecast, which appears to be representative of the rest of GB
and indeed Europe. (See below)
1ppl milk price increase for suppliers to
Meadow Foods – from June 1st (11th
May 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre price to 27ppl and based on a manufacturing
standard litre to 27.38ppl (Chester suppliers) and 27.25ppl (Cumbria
suppliers).
The key
influencing factor is the improvement in wholesale cream values.
The only way is up baby (11th May 2018)
That’s the opening
lyrics to the Yazz and The Plastic Population record and its now the only way
UK, European and world dairy prices are moving.
Key influencers are:
Milk
deliveries are 3 to 5% lower than budgeted.
Futures
prices are increasing, especially for the second half of 2018 due to product
availability concerns.
Wholesale
prices for most, if not all, dairy products are rising globally.
Paynes offer a fixed price option for 28ppl (11th May 2018)
Paynes
Dairies are offering a fixed price contract at 28ppl, which will run until
November 2019. The positive interest and
uptake has been excellent with a couple of exceptions who declined on the basis
it’s not enough money! Initially all
Paynes suppliers have been offered the opportunity to fix up to 2% of their
production, which could prove to be an administrative nightmare. The identity of the customer offering the
fixed price is currently embargoed, however, it is anticipated they will
recognise the benefits of publically attaching their name to the initiative. Charlie Payne has confirmed to Ian that he is
in negotiations with other customers over similar smoothing mechanisms.
Tesco selling milk for £480.18 per litre (11th May 2018)
One eagle
eyed regular reader spotted Britain’s most expensive milk in a Tesco store.
It was Tesco
branded 1% milk proudly stating “Tesco fair for farmers guarantee”. If Tesco pay the farmers a fair share of
£480.00 litre they will certainly rise to the top of the tank with the cream.
Meanwhile
Tesco have reduced the shelf price of 4 pints from £1.10 by 1ppl to £1.09. Are we to believe shoppers will bother over a
1ppl reduction??
0.75ppl milk price increase for Muller Direct
suppliers – from 1st June breaks the log
jam (4th May 2018)
This takes
Muller Directs standard liquid litre milk price to 26.75ppl as a result of
strengthening markets (see below)
Stand on prices for June will not be reported (4th May 2018)
Apologies to
any processors who feel that trumpeting a June stand on price is worthy of a
mention in this bulletin but it won’t be.
Only GB price increases for June will be reported.
Prices are
certainly trending up both on the spot and with futures prices and remember
both AMPE and MCVE are both up (see above).
The mood is both positive and cautiously optimistic for continuing
gradual increases
April wholesale dairy prices were positive (4th May 2018)
AHDB’s April
dairy wholesale round up confirms cream increased by £150 tonne worth just under
1pp to a liquid processor and making the total value of cream to a liquid
processor 12.16ppl
Butter was up
£440 tonne and even SMP recorded a small increase, as fresh SMP became harder
to find.
GDT auction prices down 1.1% to average
US$3465 tonne (4th May 2018)
An increased
tonnage of 19,508 tonnes (+1.3%) saw the average price fall predominantly due
to the fall in WMP.
Notable
movers were:
SMP up 3.6%
to average US$1999 tonne
Cheddar up
3.1% to average US$4024 tonne
Butter stand
on to average US$1990 tonne
WMP down 1.5%
to average US$3231 tonne
Friesland Campina down again but still
returning 29ppl (4th May 2018)
Although it’s
their 6th consecutive price drop the European dairy giants latest
equivalent 0.27ppl price drop results in a standard liquid litre price of
29.019ppl, which most in GB can only dream about.
Muller open their recruitment doors (4th May 2018)
There is no
secret that Muller have had a good 2018 in terms of quietly recruiting a number
of large producers across GB. Now the
doors are publically open as Muller’s planned investments mean they require
more milk than their existing 1700 suppliers are expected to be able to
deliver.
0.5ppl milk price reduction for supplies to
Grahams Dairies (Scotland) – from May 1st (27th
April 2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre price down to 26.25ppl. This could be the last 1st May
price cut.
AMPE and MCVE continue to head North (27th April 2018)
The April
AMPE price weighs in at 28.90 a 2.22ppl increase in a month, whilst MCVE stands
at 31.38ppl for April, a monthly increase of 0.33ppl. The AMPE increase is almost entirely down to
the rise in the value of butter, however, SMP also increased in value.
First Milk to hold its member milk price (27th April 2018)
This means
the standard liquid litre price for May will remain at 26ppl and based on a
manufacturing standard litre will remain at 26.88ppl.
Cheese exports up 23% (27th April 2018)
According to
AHDB Dairy UK cheese exports increased by 23% in 2017 compared to 2016 with a
value in excess of £615 million involving in excess of 170,000 tonnes.
The majority
was exported from the UK to the EU27, in particular to Ireland, France and
Holland.
Relief for all as Arla confirm no further
price cut for May deliveries (25th April 2018)
Arla members
conventional standard liquid litre milk price for May will be a stand on at
26.39ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre equates to 27.43ppl.
However, for
members supplying organic milk the supply continues to increase consequently UK
members will see a 0.88ppl (1 Euro Cent) reduction taking the standard liquid
litre to 40.43ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre equates to
42.04ppl. Arla organic suppliers in both
Denmark and Sweden receive a cut twice as large at 2 Euro Cents (1.78ppl).
400 million Euro cost saving target over 3
years for Arla (25th April 2018)
Arla has
publicised its “calcium” cost cutting programme where the aim is to reduce cost
by an eye watering 400 million Euro and the target is for 300 million (£263
million) of these savings to be returned to its 11,200 farmer members with the
remaining 100 million Euros of savings to be re-invested in the business. This equates to an extra £23,500 per member
assuming the savings targets are achieved.
Arla senior
management are certainly under intense pressure to deliver better milk prices
to members in all 7 countries and many in mainland Europe are very unhappy
about the hit the weaker pound is having in this post Brexit vote period, which
is estimated to have cost the co-op around £130 million plus. One key person commented to Ian “Arla’s GB
operation and members are a real pain in the A”
It’s a big
number with a huge internal transformation plan and will inevitably result in
job losses and potentially premises closures.
At least Arla are doing something big and positive in an effort to boost
the co-op’s performance whether it will come quick enough is debatable.
1.5ppl milk price drop for suppliers to
Tomlinson’s Dairies – from April 1st (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (20th
April 2018)
This takes
producers’ liquid standard litre price to 26ppl. The price for May deliveries will be held at
26ppl.
1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
South Caernarfon Creameries – from 1st
May (20th April 2018)
This takes
producers’ manufacturing standard litre price to 27.53ppl and based on a liquid
standard litre price to 26.64ppl.
1ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
Crediton Dairy – from 1st May (20th
April 2018)
This takes
producers’ liquid standard litre price to 27ppl.
0.88ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
Muller Co-operative Group (CTRG) – from 1st
May (20th April 2018)
This takes
producers’ liquid standard litre price to 27.99ppl.
0.6ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
Waitrose – from 1st May (20th
April 2018)
This takes
producers’ liquid standard litre price to 30.94ppl.
0.32ppl milk price increase for Tesco (TSDG)
suppliers – from 1st May (20th
April 2018)
This takes producers’
liquid standard litre prices to
29.84ppl
Muller Milk Group
29.59ppl Arla
suppliers
The price
adjustment is based on the quarterly cost tracker review.
Muller Directs option to fix up to 50% of
their milk at 28ppl for 3 years (20th
April 2018)
This is a
very interesting initiative between Muller and Lidl we previously featured and
certainly ups the anti on fixed price contracts and ex-farm gate milk price
volatility management. The farmer uptake
at 28ppl for 3 years will be very interesting to monitor but you would expect
it to be high, if not over subscribed.
GDT bounces up and Intervention stock of SMP
diminish (20th April 2018)
Tuesday’s GDT
auction saw the average price increase by 2.7% to $3587/tonne, which is the
first increase in 2 months where the previous four auctions have all recorded
consecutive falls. All products offered
for sale recorded gains.
Notable
movers were:
Cheddar up
4.6% to average US$3855 tonne
SMP up 3.6%
to average US$1913 tonne
Butter up
2.9% to average US$5654 tonne
WMP up 0.9%
to average US$3111 tonne
Meanwhile,
just under 25,000 of the circa 380,000 tonnes of ageing Intervention SMP were
sold by the Commission this week, which is good news despite the fact it has
had to be offloaded cheaply.
First Milk to sell its Scottish creameries (20th April 2018)
First Milk
have publically put the For Sale sign up on its two Scottish creameries in
Arran and Campbeltown, having unsuccessfully tried for at least three years to
sell them under the public radar to numerous potential purchasers.
Whilst Arran
and Mull of Kintyre Cheddar are both popular quality branded cheeses the fact
is First Milk have battled to make any money from them so commercially they have
to be disposed of as the co-op continues to divest itself of loss making
enterprises and downsizes.
For the 28
supplying farmers who produce circa 30 million litres of milk each year the
news will be a blow but certainly not a complete surprise. Whilst the farmers will be hoping and praying
someone will rescue both creameries they will realise that if no buyers can be
found, one or both creamery doors could be closed for good.
Finding
buyers looks like a challenge and as one potential punter commented to Ian “I
can’t decide whether they are hospital cases or whether there is potential with
a gem or a jewel to be had?” Will the
supplying farmers be persuaded it’s financially sound to back some form of
management buyout?
Farmers
involved certainly need to be asking for clear timescales and a commitment from
First Milk as well as what safety net will be available if no buyers can be
found within given time frames. Will
First Milk commit to collect and process their milk long term?
Farmers will
realise that if the doors are closed and if no commitment is given it will
potentially immediately be followed by closure of their dairy farms unless they
do a deal to sell their milk to a mainland processor and abandon the two
brands. The main problem is transporting
milk from this area is costly as is the cost of production.
Once First
Milk have exited the two creameries they will be left producing bulk unbranded
cheddar for Ornua at their Haverfordwest and The Lake District creameries as
well as their important partnership with Nestle. The obvious question is whether there is any
reason First Milk need to retain a head office in Glasgow or anywhere else for
that matter. One option must be for
First Milk to cut cost and run its various departments from either of the two
creameries.
Whilst First
Milk’s CEO is based in the Midlands the existing departmental skills base is in
Glasgow and will not be easy to relocate or replicate.
Eat less dairy say 52 organisations (20th April 2018)
What has been
described as “a powerful alliance of 52 organisations” has produced a report, “Principles
for Eating Meat and Dairy More Sustainably : the less and better approach”
They have
delivered the report to DEFRA as their submission to the government’s
consultation on the post Brexit Agriculture Policy, which we all know is badged
as a green Brexit.
The report
highlights eight reasons why eating less meat and dairy will impact on the
climate, animal welfare, nature, health, worldwide access to food,
effectiveness of antibiotics, resource use and waste and even the livelihoods
of farmers.
The report
points the finger at what it calls industrial livestock production and calls on
government to step forward by encouraging farming practices that benefit animal
welfare, the environment and our health.
The alliance
claims almost a 1000% increase in demand for vegetarian options in 2017 in the
UK alone.
The 52
members of the eating-better alliance include Friends of the Earth, WWF and
Compassion in World Farming. Whether our
politicians listen to their views remains to be seen but they certainly won’t
be ignored or dismissed and the fear is the new post Brexit policy could be
hi-jacked and dictated by these organisations and the so-called Green Lobby.
The report can be downloaded at:
https://www.eating-better.org/uploads/Documents/2018/better_meat_report_FINAL.pdf.
Or a summary
at: http://bit.ly/EB2018lessandbettersummary
Dairy UK respond quickly to the Eating Better Report (20th April 2018)
Dairy UK were quick to respond to the report
and cut straight to the chase in stating that “the environmental and
nutritional contribution of the dairy sector has been wilfully misrepresented”. The response then proceeds to accurately
address and challenge the reports eight key punch points.
It’s worth reading the one page response from Dairy
UKt …….. http://www.dairyuk.org/media-area/press-releases
Barry Wilson receives the 2018 RABDF Princess
Royal Award (20th April 2018)
Barry Wilson
was certainly long overdue some recognition for his lifetime contribution to
the dairy industry and his direct commentary on dairy politics for more than 40
years.
The RABDF
have rectified this with their 2018 Princess Royal Award. The two publications Barry had under his wing
were The Dairy Industry Newsletter and British Dairying.
Muller set to exit supplying milk to 3,000
non-domestic deliveries (20th April 2018)
Having
purchased most, if not all, of these 3,000 customers when Muller bought the
Dairy Crest business 2 years ago they have decided to cut their circa £5million
a year losses and go to consultation on simply closing the doors and it appears
there is no plan to sell the operation to a third party.
A 45 day
consultation has started involving around 250 jobs who are involved in
deliveries to businesses, restaurants, pubs, bakeries and food service caterers
etc.
0.5ppl milk price reduction for Muller Direct
suppliers – from 1st May (3rd
April 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 26.0ppl, however, with the
re-introduction of the retail supplement the figure increases to 26.2ppl.
In addition,
Muller have confirmed Muller Direct suppliers’ April deliveries are expected to
receive a retail supplement of circa 0.15ppl.
0.84ppl to 1.15ppl milk price reductions and a
26ppl liquid milk price for First Milk members – from 1st April (3rd April 2018)
This is an
across the board harmonisation of the matrix of regional First Milk member milk
prices, which results in a standard liquid litre milk price of 26ppl. This will be under the heading of First Milk
liquid in addition to which will sit a First Milk manufacturing milk price
26.88ppl. Going forward First Milk will
only have the two contracts and two milk prices.
1.5ppl milk price reduction for Graham Dairies
suppliers – from 1st April (3rd
April 2018)
This takes
producer’s standard liquid litre milk price to 26.75ppl
1.25ppl milk price reduction for Wensleydale
Creamery (Hawes) – from 1st April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (3rd
April 2018)
This takes
producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 27.7ppl and based on a
standard liquid litre to 26.75ppl.
1.1ppl milk price reduction for Freshways
suppliers – from 1st April (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (3rd April
2018)
This takes
producers standard liquid litre milk price to 26.28ppl (www.milkprices.com)
Dairy Crest and DCD in deadlock as a 1ppl
price cut is imposed – from 1st
May (3rd April 2018)
Dairy Crest
have imposed their first price reduction of 1ppl for May having failed to reach
agreement with DCD for the first time since the formation of the DPO.
This 1ppl
reduction takes producers standard manufacturing litre milk price to 28ppl and
based on a standard liquid litre to 26.92ppl, which it has to be said is a
healthy May price.
Deadlock
means that any DCD Davidstow farmers can leave only serving 3 months
termination notice as opposed to the contracted 12 months. Any who do leave will automatically forgo
their 1ppl loyalty bonus for the three months.
The resignation opportunity is open for 30 days.
Whilst on the
face of it it sounds like a big call the alternative milk purchasers are
unlikely to see orderly queues of DCD farmers wanting to sign up given their
current prices.
GDT down 0.6% for the fourth consecutive
auction (3rd April 2018)
Today’s GDT
auction saw the average all products price fall for the fourth consecutive
auction by 0.6% to average US$3477 tonne.
Notable price
movements were:
SMP down 1.8%
to average US$1849 tonne
WMP up 1.6%
to average US$3278 tonne
Cheddar up
2.2% to average US$3679 tonne
Butter up
4.1% to average US$5494 tonne
Muller clocks in 7th position as
The Grocer’s 2018 Britain’s Biggest Brands (3rd
April 2018)
Muller will
no doubt by delighted to be the only dairy brand to make The Grocer’s Top 10,
having retained its 7th position for a second year. Other dairy brands were Lurpak 19th
(19th in 2017) Arla 22nd (26th in 2017) and
Yeo Valley 53rd (50th in 2017)
Wyke
Farms opens its recruitment book
(3rd April 2018)
Wyke
Farms, Somerset, has opened its recruitment door seeking at least 25million
litres of extra milk. The milk is required due to increased exports with Wyke
after new producers ideally within a 50mile radius of the dairy in Bruton over
an area which extends into Gloucestershire, Somerset, Wiltshire, Devon &
Dorset
FarmFoods selling 8 pints of milk for only
£1.50 (3rd April 2018)
The
information received indicates the discounted milk was supplied by Paynes
Dairies.
3ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
Lactalis – from 1st April (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (23rd
March 2018)
It sounds
like the mother of all price drops and it is but to balance this drop is the
fact that Lactalis have held their producer price since November at 29.91ppl.
Similarly
this latest price is guaranteed by Lactalis for a minimum for three months
until July 1st.
The resulting
manufacturing standard litre price is 26.91ppl and based on a liquid standard
litre will be 26ppl.
1.75ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to
Meadow Foods – from 1st April (23rd
March 2018)
This takes
producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 26ppl and based on the
manufacturing standard litre it calculates to 26.37ppl (Chester based) and 26.25ppl
(Cumbria) (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Wyke Farms (Cheese) – from 1st
April (23rd March 2018)
The resulting manufacturing standard litre
price is 28.62ppl and based on a standard liquid litre 27.65ppl.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st
April (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (23rd March 2018)
This should result in a standard liquid litre
price of 26.2ppl
Arla April milk price is stand on with an
extra 0.32ppl currency increase (23rd
March 2018)
Arla will not
reduce its conventional milk price for April and the likelihood and expectation
is that the next time Arla members milk price moves it will be upwards.
In addition,
the April to June currency smoothing mechanism results in a 0.32ppl increase,
which results in a 1st April standard liquid litre price of 26.39ppl
and a manufacturing standard litre price of 27.43ppl.
Meanwhile,
the Arla member organic standard liquid litre price for April will be 41.28ppl
and on a manufacturing litre 42.92ppl.
However, for Arla’s Danish and Swedish producers they have a 1 Euro Cent
a litre price reduction.
Last month’s
Arla member price drop of 2.16ppl was a big bombshell, however, one month ago in
this bulletin Ian stated that whilst the whopping cut was unwelcome if it was a
case of cut once and cut deep it should be considered a reasonable result by
farmers involved and that price drops under 26p looked less likely now.
Whether
farmers like it or not as things look today most, if not all, GB milk
purchasers will be under pressure to follow Arla’s lead. That means fewer, if any, further price cuts
are likely and possibly none for May 1st unless suppliers want to
play Russian Roulette with their supply base.
To have a stand on liquid price of 26.4ppl plus through the spring
flush, whenever spring arrives, is good news.
Correction Reference Wensleydale milk price cut (23rd March
2018)
In our last bulletin we stated that the
producer notified 1ppl milk price cut for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery
took effect from 1st April.
Two producers have confirmed that the cut was actually announced with
immediate effect from 1st March
GDT
index fall for the third consecutive auction (23rd March 2018)
This week’s GDT auction saw the average price
fall 1.2% to average US$3632 tonne.
Note, the quantity on offer was down 3.4% to 18,635 tonnes.
Key price movements were:
SMP down 8.6% to average US$1887 tonne
Cheddar down 3.9% to average US$3609 tonne
Butter no change average US$5281 tonne
WMP up 0.1% to average US$ 3226 tonne
Muller
Milk Group Board (MMG) appointments (23rd March 2018)
Democracy has certainly played its part in
the recent elections which have seen four out of six candidates elected to join
three others making a total of 7 who represent 1700 Muller suppliers along with
the 20 members of Muller’s Farmer Forum.
David Halhead and Ian Speed were the two
unsuccessful candidates who now step down from their existing board positions
and the successful four were David Herdman, Philip Rowney, Ray Gibbins and
Richard Pearman.
Around
19 million litres of GB milk were dumped (23rd March 2018)
AHDB Dairy estimate the recent snow resulted
in around 19 million litres of milk failing to be collected in GB between 28th
February and 3rd March
Muller & Grahams Dairy Scotland
scoop 3 year Lidl deal (22nd March 2018)
Grahams The Family Dairy and Muller will
start a 3 year partnership for the supply of liquid milk and butter to Lidl
from June 1st this year.
From June 1st Muller’s total share
of Lidl’s business increases by what Ian estimates to be around 70/80 million
litres. Meanwhile Grahams retain their sales as Lidl’s main milk and cream
supplier in Scotland whilst Trewithen Dairy, Cornwall also retains its current
regional contract.
Ian estimates Lidl’s total milk requirements
are around 240 million litres based on 12 RDC outlets averaging 20 million
litres each and Muller’s June 1st share will be around
200million litres or more based on its contract to serve 10 x RDC’s.
The Muller increases come at the expense of
Medina who have lost an estimated 40 million litres to two RDC’s and Arla
who lose an estimated 30 million litres to two RDC’s. Neither
Medina or Arla will be supplying Lidl with any milk from June 1st
The switch in literage is certainly
newsworthy, however, as always the real commercials are undisclosed.
Certainly, the innovative 3 year partnership and the offer of fixed price
ex-farm gate milk prices from the Muller/Lidl partnership will be of particular
interest to Muller farmers and the industry.
Under the deal Muller direct farmers will be
able to lock in to a fixed price of 28ppl for a portion of their milk.
The locking in time frame is yet to be confirmed but the expectation is it will
be a minimum 1 year and could even be a 3 year hedge deal for farmers, which is
a new direction and massive step forward for a major retailer as both Lidl and
Muller try to offer farmers real options and solutions to minimise the effects
of volatility. Further details are expected shortly.
1.5ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1st April (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (9th March
2018)
1.5ppl milk price
reduction for liquid contracted suppliers to Yew Tree Dairy – from 1st April (9th
March 2018)
This reduction takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to
26.5ppl
1.5ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Belton from – from 1st
April (9th March 2018)
This reduction takes producers’ standard litre liquid litre milk price to
26.5ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre price to 27.25ppl.
1.25ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Pensworth Dairy – from 1st April (9th
March 2018)
This reduction takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to
26ppl
1ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – from 1st March (9th
March 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre milk price to 28ppl and based
on a standard manufacturing litre to a healthy 28.95ppl.
GDT average falls for
the second consecutive auction (9th
March 2018)
This week’s GDT auction saw the average price ease to $3593 down 0.6% and
the second consecutive fall in 2018. In
addition, the average price for the key product WMP declined by 0.8% the first
WMP price fall in 2018.
Notable results:
Butter down 1% to average US$5280 tonne
WMP down 0.8% to average US$3232
tonne
Cheddar up 1.7% to average US$3759 tonne
SMP up 5.5% to average US$2051 tonne
Dairy farmers’
contracts terminated with only 3 months notice (9th March 2018)
Around 24 farmers who sell their milk to Dean Foods in Pennsylvania US
have been given only 90 days (3 months) to find a new milk purchaser.
It’s not the first time a US milk purchaser has made a similar move
because in 2017 Grassland Dairy gave producers only 30 days to find a new home.
The move is blamed on a surplus of milk combined with the fact consumers
are buying less liquid milk. Coincidently in the same region as Dean Foods
contract terminations have been issued Walmart have built their liquid milk
processing plant which is expected to be fully operational by the end of May. Prior to this Dean Foods bottled Walmart’s
Great Value own label milk hence the reason why most people have joined the
dots up themselves!
The expectation is that Dean Foods and others will terminate more farmer
contracts at short notice as the spring flush results in milk flooding onto the
market.
On a global scale whilst production in New Zealand is down, due to
weather, production in the EU and US are both up.
1.5ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Muller Direct contracted producers – from 1st
April (2nd March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard
liquid litre price to 26.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1.5ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers on Arla Direct contracts – from 1st
April (2nd March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard liquid
litre price to 24.3ppl and for a manufacturing standard litre 25.32ppl, which
means it is on course to be the lowest April GB farm gate milk price.
1.5ppl
milk price reduction for Glanbia Cheese suppliers – from 1st
April (2nd March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard
liquid litre price to 26.1ppl
1.32ppl
milk price reduction for Freshways suppliers with more to come – from 1st
March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2nd
March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard liquid
litre price to 27.37, including the 0.6ppl volume bonus for those supplying 1
million litres plus (www.milkprices.com). In addition, Freshways have informed its
supplying famers that they anticipate a further price reduction in April.
1.3ppl
milk price reduction for Paynes Dairies suppliers – from 1st
March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2nd
March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard
liquid litre price to 27.2ppl (www.milkprices.com).
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Crediton Dairy – from 1st
April (2nd March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard
liquid litre price to 28.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers – from 1st
April (2nd March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard
liquid litre price to 27.92ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to
29ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for Barbers Cheesemakers suppliers – from 1st
April (2nd March 2018)
This reduction takes producers standard
liquid litre price to 27.842ppl and based on a manufacturing standard litre to
28.87ppl (www.milkprices.com)
Friesland
Campina March farm gate milk price is 30.4ppl (2nd
March 2018)
The small 0.25 Euro Cents kg milk price
reduction from 1st March for suppliers to the European giant
Friesland Campina converts to 30.361ppl based on a liquid standard litre
according to www.milkprices.com It’s certainly a price UK farmers will envy.
The Friesland organic standard liquid litre
milk price converts to 43.19ppl for March as a result of a 1st March
increase of 1.5 Euro Cents kg.
Glimmers
of light slowly emerging (2nd March 2018)
In last week’s bulletin under the heading of
“The Outlook” we suggested that there is a real possibility that the bombshell
2.16ppl March price drop for Arla members could be close to the last and that
this could be close to if note already at the bottom.
AHDB Dairy have today posted a news item
headed “Market Indicators suggest end to
price cuts” in which they state farm gate milk prices are heading towards
settling and could even move up post the Spring flush.
It’s another positive sign all we need now is
for Spring to appear and these positive signs and predictions to convert to
reality.
Intervention
SMP is released at rock bottom price (2nd March 2018)
The Commission have sold 4,337 tonnes of the
380.000 tonnes in stock for only €1,100 tonne (£976.00 tonne). This is easily the lowest price they have
sold at and its €145/tonne below feed grade SMP. The market certainly doesn’t need much of
this cheap low grade SMP releasing at this moment in time.
Arla
to pay for milk they are unable to collect (2nd March 2018)
Arla has announced that in the current
extreme weather conditions they will pay members for milk they are unable to collect,
which farmers are forced to dispose of.
The change takes effect from 26th February and runs until the
weather is declared as improved. Note,
it is the members duty to clear their farm drive/entrance as a prior
qualification to this offering.
Surprisingly and indeed shamefully Arla
report that a small number of farmers on Thursday decided to threaten and abuse
Arla staff, including tanker drivers, which Arla have made very clear is
unacceptable. It’s a wonder such threats
are not grounds for terminating membership of Arla. At the end of the day everyone is trying to
do their best in these arctic conditions.
Meadow
Foods is in acquisition mode (2nd March 2018)
Meadow Foods who handle over 650 million litres
of milk annually have acquired Roil Foods Limited of Wrexham, who manufacture a
range of dairy based oils, which are new products to the Meadow dairy
ingredients portfolio. Clearly the new
Meadow appear to be in acquisition mode.
Government’s
Consultation on “The Future for Food, Farming and the Environment” is now live (2nd
March 2018)
For further details log onto ‘Health
and Harmony: the future for food, farming and the environment in a Green Brexit’. . This
is the key document on the future thoughts as to the direct and shape of the
post Brexit. Responses need to be
received by 8th May.
Tomas Pietrangeli,
Managing Director of Arla Foods UK, commented:
“Today’s announcement provides welcome
clarity for our farmer owners as to how the Government sees the future of
agriculture in this country. We are pleased to see that the Environment
Secretary intends to involve the industry in the process through consultation.
“Arla is already in consultation with its
farmer owners over how today’s announcement will affect them. We look forward
to continuing to engage with Government and policymakers as we work towards the
future of agriculture in the UK.”
Whilst a 64 page Government document isn’t a
top read in the normal course of circumstances its perhaps the one we all
should study.
2.16ppl
milk price drop for Arla members is a blow (23rd February 2018)
Whilst most people who study and understand
the dairy markets expected a 1.5 to 2 Euro Cents Arla member price drop for
March no one anticipated a whopping 2.5 Euro Cents, which converts to an eye
watering 2.16ppl manufacturing member price drop. Note, Arla’s organic milk price remains
unchanged.
This reduction results in a liquid standard
litre price of only 26.08ppl and a manufacturing standard litre price of
27.11ppl.
This means in the space of three months
Arla’s member price has gone from being one of the best (liquid 31.05ppl and
manufacturing 32.3ppl) to the worst in the UK, subject to any further
announcements from other companies.
This drop has not gone down well with members
and two emails received today by Ian are even questioning whether such a brutal
cut would have happened on Jonathan Ovens’ watch, compared to Johnnie Russell’s
being in situ. While it can’t be proven it’s a fact Ovens would have certainly
fought hard against such a brutal cut. It’s up to Arla members to decide
whether Russell fought hard against it. Or even at all.
It certainly didn’t stop Russell leaving
yesterday’s board meeting to go on holiday to Spain and his G&T and sun
lounger, and whilst he is quoted in the official Arla press release he has made
himself uncontactable and unaccountable to the members he represents, and who
are demanding answers to what is one of Arla’s biggest ever price cuts.
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for First Milk producers – from 1st
March (23rd February 2018)
This reduction results in the following
standard litre prices:
Liquid
Manufacturing
Lake
District 27.19ppl 28.2ppl
Midlands & East
Wales 27.15ppl
Scotland 26.84ppl
Haverfordwest 27.31ppl 28.32ppl
(excluding the Tesco Cheese bonus)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Grahams Dairies (Scotland) – from 1st
March (23rd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
milk price to 28.25ppl
GDT
auction is a mixed bag (23rd February 2018)
Recent gains in the fortnightly GDT auction were
brought to a grinding stop this week as the average index fell 0.5% to US$3623
tonne.
Notable prices were:
Butter up
1.1% to average US$5334 tonne
WMP up
0.3% to average US$3246 tonne
Cheddar down
1.3% to average US$3686 tonne
SMP down
3.0% to average US$1832 tonne
The
outlook (23rd February 2018)
Firstly, let’s not forget Arla’s milk price
is a European milk price and is impacted by several different dynamics to the
UK price. This means others do not have to follow Arla’s move just because they
can in a downward spiral race to the bottom.
Whilst the NFU’s Chief Dairy Advisor and
others have had several pops at two industry commentators forecasts (namely,
Walkland and yours truly) over our price predictions going back to November,
they are now looking remarkably accurate. At this week’s Dairy Breakout session
the clear suggestion from the NFU was that prices WILL be rising. We don’t
agree.
If Arla’s latest drop to 26ppl for liquid is a
low point and prices recover post the flush then Ian calls that a result. It
could be a case of one deep cut, and if they are unlucky a little bit more
still to come, but for sure a 25ppl or less milk price looks less likely now
than it did.
European production and Mother Nature will
have a part to play but Ian still believes the likely Arla member milk price
low point will be between 25p and the current 26ppl.
Spot prices have firmed in the last 2 weeks
by around 2ppl due to a surprise surge in cream prices and for liquid prices
are around 25 to 26ppl, but little is trading and the market is very finely
balanced. Whether this cream price surge
is sustainable is questionable given the fundamentals.
Meanwhile, Arla have announced their 2017
results this week.
Sales increased 8.37% to £1.94 billion (from
£1.79 billion) and net profit was within the co-op’s target of 2.8% of revenue.
Gross profit fell 5% to €2.28 billion with
profit before tax down 19% to €321 million compared to €398 million in 2016.
There’s lots of emphasis by Arla on the
strength and importance of Arla’s brands which “delivered the greatest revenue
growth” but with today’s major member price cut understandably several members
are questioning whether their member investment in these brands is producing a
return to them. Also note at the NFU
Conference Arla’s UK MD, Thomas Pietrangeli stated “I am measured on paying the
highest possible milk price to the owners.”
Need we say anymore.
NFU
AGM & Conference (23rd February 2018)
Congratulations to Minette Batters who is the
first female President of the NFU and she certainly takes to the reins at a
very challenging and important time for UK agriculture. Along with her new Vice President, Stuart Roberts
and re-elected Guy Smith as Deputy President, they will certainly be kept very
busy and have to hit the ground running.
This year’s NFU Conference saw a record
attendance of 1560 delegates and whilst it was a bit of a gamble at the time,
credit for the move to the ICC goes to the then NFU Vice President, Gwyn
Jones. The move has been a huge success.
In terms of the papers whilst the Secretary
of Stated for EFRA, The Rt Hon. Michael Gove gave a very good stage performance
but his paper told delegates nothing they couldn’t have heard from him 12
months earlier. In summary, he should
have done better. More on this another
day and on the interesting elements of the Dairy Breakout.
1.5ppl milk price reduction for suppliers to Wyke Farming (cheese)
from 1st March (16th February
2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 29.66ppl and based on a standard liquid litre to 28.65ppl.
RABDF submits an inquiry to the EFRA committee (16th February 2018)
Following its research into the labour
situation on more than 1000 British dairy farms, carried out by yours truly Ian
Potter Marketing Services, the RABDF has made a submission to the EFRA
Committee (Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee).
From the survey 17% of dairy units have
foreign workers as part of their workforce and the evidence points to a
“potential cliff edge labour shortage facing dairy farms” in the post Brexit
world. The survey was carried out in
conjunction with Kite Consulting who’s founder, John Allen, commented that the
supply of skilled dedicated foreign workers is critical to the success and long
term prosperity to the British dairy sector.
1.25ppl milk price
reduction for supplies to Meadow Foods – from 1st
March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (9th February 2018)
The decrease takes producers’ standard liquid litre price down to
27.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)
In addition, Meadow Foods B milk price paid for December deliveries was
23ppl.
1.25ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Wensleydale Creamery – from 1st February (9th
February 2018)
1.25ppl milk price
reduction for suppliers to Crediton Dairy – from 1st
March (9th February
2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.75ppl (www.milkprices.com)
GDT average bounces
up 5.9% in two weeks (9th
February 2018)
This week’s GDT auction produced the third consecutive rise this year and
the largest increase since November 2016 to average US$3553 tonne, an increase
of 5.9%.
WMP was up 7.6%, it’s highest average for 8 months, with SMP up 7.2%,
however, note due to the drought in New Zealand volumes on offer were once
again down, this time by 5% when 22,197 tonnes were sold.
New Zealand analysts are warning that this recover might continue for the
next auction on 20th February but it’s likely to correct itself in
March and will be lucky if recent gains can be sustained. New Zealand milk production is estimated to
be down 1.5% in this dairy year.
Notable movers:
Butter +7.9% to average US$5277
tonne
WMP +7.6% to average US$3226
tonne
SMP +7.2% to average US$1932
tonne
Cheddar +7.2% to average US$3739 tonne
Arthur Fearnall to
replace Jonathan Ovens on Arla Amba Board (9th February 2018)
At yesterday’s Arla UK area forum the regional representatives elected
Cheshire dairy farmer, Arthur Fearnall to join Johnnie Russel on the Arla Foods
Amba Board to representing 2,500 GB Arla farmers.
Several reports indicate the meeting had its moments and body language
was instantly interpreted to mean the result didn’t suit a couple of those who
knew it before it was announced to the representatives but hey ho that’s
democracy.
Fearnall certainly understands the business, is professional and savvy
and can hit the ground running from today and won’t need to serve as an
apprentice to anyone.
Based on the presentations given by the six candidates the general
feeling was that one of the unsuccessful candidates should certainly be back
for a second shot at the position possibly as early as next May when both
Johnnie Russel and Arthur Fearnall are up for re-election.
It’s time for the top table jostling and unprofessional farmer politics
to stop. Any legal action following the
unfortunate handling of Ovens’ instant dismissal will simply take its course.
Fearnall has to hit the ground running and have the co-operation and
support of ALL involved following yesterday’s election.
Arla acquire the
business of Yeo Valley Dairies Limited
(9th February 2018)
The Mead family have agreed to sell its subsidiary Yeo Valley Dairies
Limited, which will give Arla the branding license rights to utilise the Yeo
Valley milk brand in liquid, cheese, butter and spreads. Note, the Yeo Valley yoghurt, cream, ice
cream and desserts business remain with the Mead family and the deal does not
include any processing facilities, employees or dairy farmer suppliers. OMSCo currently supply Yeo Valley with its
liquid milk and this will continue for a minimum of 3 years.
It’s another clear signal that Arla (along with Muller) are investing
long term in the UK dairy industry, which is positive.
The deal is subject to UK Competition Authority approval.
2ppl
chart topping milk price reduction for suppliers to Pattemores – from 1st
March (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 27.5ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for Barbers Cheesemakers suppliers – from 1st
March (2nd
February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 29.91ppl and their standard liquid litre to 28.84ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1.2ppl
milk price reduction for Arla Directs – from 1st March (2nd
February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 25.8ppl and their manufacturing litre price to 26.89ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for Muller Direct suppliers – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Pensworth Dairy – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 27.25ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm Cheesemakers – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 28.75ppl and their standard liquid litre to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Glanbia Cheese suppliers – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 28.5ppl and their standard liquid litre to 27.55ppl (www.milkprices.com)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from 1st
March (PRODUCER
NOTIFIED) (2nd
February 2018)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Yew Tree Dairies liquid contract – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 28ppl (www.milkprices.com)
0.769ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Freshways – from 1st
February (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 28.69 (www.milkprices.com)
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to South Caernarfon Creameries Limited – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
However, this modest decline, compared to the
others above, comes with some welcome news that SCC will hold this price until
at least May 1st. This takes
producers’ standard manufacturing litre price to 29.03ppl. (www.milkprices.com)
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for Dairy Crest Davidstow suppliers – from 1st
March (2nd February 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 30.25ppl and their standard liquid litre to 29.17ppl (www.milkprices.com)
0.5ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Paynes Dairies – from 1st
February (2nd February 2018)
Information required by Ian from readers of this bulletin on the
following milk buyer’s price moves:
Lanchester
County
Buckleys
Average
2017 UK farm gate milk price was 28.75ppl
(2nd
February 2018)
This is according to DEFRA calculations. The December average was 31.66ppl
Arla to invest in
£460million of which £72million will come to the UK (2nd
February 2018)
Arla has announced a whopping £460 million European
investment plan of which £72 million will be invested in the UK. Of this £72
million £34 million will be spent at its Aylesbury plant which will
predominantly go into facilities for the production of lactose free dairy products. Ten out of twelve UK Arla processing
facilities will receive a share of the investment money.
This is positive news from the Dairy giant
demonstrating the long-term confidence Arla has to growing the UK Dairy
Industry. A similar investment signal previously
came from Muller last year so clearly both of our two largest processors have
confidence. For Arla it’s the biggest
annual investment in the UK excepting the commitment to build Aylesbury.
Ovens has no case to
answer according to HMRC and starts legal proceedings (2nd
February 2018)
It is
believed that HMRC have confirmed that Jonathan Ovens and the Arla EDL board
have no case to answer re corporate hospitality expenses. This was one of
the reasons put forward by Russell as to why Ovens had to be sacked.
Ian has
attempted to determine the exact date Russell was made aware that HMRC had made
their decision, but without success. This will no doubt be a matter for
discussion for the Arla farmer reps at their big meeting next Thursday (see
later).
As was
widely predicted at the time of his dismissal Ovens' dairy business D Mortimer
& Sons are also known to have issued formal notices prior to the
commencement of legal action against several companies and directors for loss
of directorships, his tarnished reputation and loss of his Arla membership. It’s all lining up to
be a very, very expensive mess, which will most likely cost £multi-millions in
lawyers, court fees or most likely out of court settlements, and damages
if Arla and the other implicated businesses and directors lose the cases.
It is
understood, and it’s no surprise, one of the legal notices has gone to the UKAF
board, six of whom voted to expel Ovens, and with hindsight it’s likely some of
those six are wishing they hadn't followed Russell like unquestioning disciples
and had thought for themselves and waited until HMRC had declared their
position. It remains to be seen whether these six, including Russell
and three of the candidates who have thrown their hats in the ring to replace
Ovens (see below), have received individual notices of legal action for
damages, but this must be a possibility.
It’s a
bizarre but a very predictable set of circumstances, and the biggest worry for
Arla and Arla members will be that litigation along these lines will take up a
huge amount of Russell's and his five accomplices time to defend, and that’s
time that should be put to better use working for members.
Six runners and riders
to replace Jonathan Ovens as an Arla Board Member (2nd
February 2018)
Ovens’
boots are big ones to fill and personal preferences and allegiances need to be
put to one side by those Arla reps who vote to ensure the elected candidate
understands the business in detail, is professional, savvy and can get results
for UK farmers. He or she will have to hit the ground running, especially
on issues like Brexit.
Six
candidates have thrown their names into the hat for next Thursday’s elections
to take the BOR position previously held by Ovens, at which up to 106 Arla
Chairman and Vice Chairman will vote. The candidates are
Arthur
Fearnall
James
Thompson
Gaynor
Wellwood
David
Hyslop
Angela
Rhodes
Tim
Dale
Dairy Tech Event is next
week (2nd February 2018)
Next
Wednesday, 7th February, will see a new event organised by RABDF, Dairy Tech.
It will be an important day in the dairy calendar, with the exhibition booking
over 250 stands. This has blown away all RABDF’s predictions. The event will be
one for progressive dairy farmers who recognise that technology and science
will be at the centre of dairy farming progress and future growth, including
disease and illness diagnostics and treatment as well as helping reduce dairy
farming’s environmental footprint. I wish the event well and hope it gets a
good turnout of visitors.
Bill
Gates Funds Super Cow Research (2nd February 2018)
Microsoft tycoon Bill Gates has invested £29m
in British research to breed a hybrid milk cow-productive but rugged-for
Africa. The Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation have provided the money for Edinburgh-based GALVmed (Global Alliance
for Livestock Veterinary Medicines), which is researching genetics and vaccines
to breed a cow with milk yield comparable to that in Europe but with the high
heat tolerance of indigenous cattle in Africa.
Livestock were critical for helping to alleviate hunger and fight
poverty in the developing world, Gates said.
The Department for International Development is also funding the
project. (Source: Dairy Industry Newsletter DIN)
1.73ppl (2 Euro Cents
kg) milk price reduction for Arla members – from 1st
February (26th January
2018)
This latest reduction for conventional milk only results in a 1st
February standard liquid litre milk price of 28.16ppl and a standard manufacturing
litre milk price of 29.27ppl.
Arla’s organic milk price is stand on at standard litre prices of
40.96ppl (liquid) and 42.59ppl (manufacturing).
Note, whilst Arla’s organic milk price is unchanged in the UK it reduces
by 1 Euro Cent per kg in both Denmark and Sweden.
Next week’s bulletin will not make for happy reading because if Arla
sneeze the majority end up with a cold.
Mystic Chris Walkland’s farm gate milk price predictions, made in July,
for January and February 2018 have both proved scarily close to reality.
1.75ppl milk price
reduction for Pensworth Dairy suppliers – from 1st
February (19th January
2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 28.25ppl
1.11ppl milk price
reduction for Freshways suppliers – back dated to 1st
January (PRODUCER NOTIFIED) (19th January 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.46ppl
1ppl milk price
reduction for First Milk members – from 1st
February (19th January
2018)
This reduction results in the following standard litre prices:
Liquid Manufacturing
Lake District 28.44ppl 29.45ppl
Midlands & East Wales 28.40ppl
Scotland 28.09ppl
Haverfordwest 28.56ppl 29.57ppl
(excluding the Tesco Cheese bonus)
0.52ppl milk price
reduction fro Co-op Dairy suppliers – from 1st
February (19th January
2018)
This milk is supplied by Muller and takes producers’ standard liquid
litre price to 28.87ppl
0.07ppl increase for
Tesco suppliers – from 1st February (19th January 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre price to 29.52ppl (Muller
Milk Group) and 29.27ppl (Arla). The
price change is based on the cost tracker number crunching.
GDT up 4.9% (19th January 2018)
Tuesday’s GDT auction saw prices bounce up on average 4.9% clearly as a
result of lower volumes put forward by Fonterra due to continuing drought
conditions in New Zealand. Total sold
23,319 tonnes down from 25,400 tonnes sold a fortnight ago.
Notable movers were:
Butter + 8.8% to average US$4897 tonne
SMP + 6.5% to average US$1818 tonne
Cheddar + 5.2% to average US$3486 tonne
WMP + 5.1% to average US$3010 tonne
Goat farmers under notice as milk
supply eclipses demand (19th
January 2018)
Both Arla and Abergavenny Fine Foods have
given notice to their goat farmers that they no longer require their
milk. Sadly the chances of the affected farmers finding an alternative
milk purchaser look grim.
Arla have given 12 months notice to 9 farmers
and once they all leave Arla will no longer be involved in the collection and
marketing of goat’s milk in the UK. If one or more of the Arla farmers
does find an alternative outlet they are free to leave as soon as is convenient
to them. In addition Arla have committed to hold producers price at the current
level throughout the duration of the 12 month notice.
Meanwhile, this week Abergavenny Fine Foods
gave its goat’s milk suppliers a brutal and cruel 6 weeks contract termination
notice. Ian emailed attempting to contact them to find out how many
farmers had received notice but the request was unanswered as were other
questions and one can only assume the farmers involved have had a rougher ride
compared to the ones with Arla.
The news will be a huge blow to the farmers
involved but the harsh reality is that demand has fallen and supply rocketed
and the cost of dealing with the significant volume of unwanted goat’s milk is
totally unsustainable and that’s the reason both have pulled the plug.
The book is open for what is the most
important democratically elected job in the British dairy industry (19th January 2018)
On the 8th February up to 106 Arla
district chairmen and vice chairmen representing 53 districts will be called to
a meeting to vote in a new Arla AMBA board member to replace the ousted
Jonathan Ovens.
This is without doubt one of the most
important elected position in British dairying with the successful person
effectively representing 25% of Arla’s total milk intake.
Whilst in theory any Arla member is
encouraged to apply having been nominated to stand by one of the 106 elected
representatives the successful candidate must surely come with some very
special qualities and real calibre which should narrow down the runners and
riders to only 2 or 3 with true ability, perhaps with the odd wild card.
One key tick box needs to be that the elected
person has a detailed understanding of the intricacies of how our
rather unique relationships with retailers have evolved and be able to foster
them. Arla’s Commercial Team have chalked up a number of successes in
recent months and they will be desperate to see a face emerge who can help them
win business. The last thing Arla need is for someone to be elected whose
ambition eclipses their ability. It’s not the time for confidence to
triumph over ability and it’s not a trainee position with Russel playing coach
and carer to a side kick
Then there is the need to bring 2,500 Arla UK
members together and show real leadership in the next phase of Arla’s
development not to mention the little matter of leadership through Brexit.
It’s going to need to be a strong person with
experience in governance and calibre. It’s a big job at a very important
time both for Arla and the UK dairy industry. The nominations book closes
on 31st January. Time to think carefully and fingers crossed
the right people step forward.
Interestingly, last spring when both Ovens
and Russel were both up for re-election no one opposed them, so no election,
which says something.
Muller launch a next
generation initiative for young farmers (19th January 2018)
Muller’s latest initiative is the launch of Muller Direct Next Generation
where they aim to involve around 25 Muller Direct young farmers who have real
dairy farming business potential.
The initiative is fully funded by Muller and will run for an initial 3
year period to provide participants with a range of tools and training to help
them catapult their businesses forward in a post Brexit world.
It’s certainly another ambitious project by the dairy giant and joins
others including its futures contract trading option.
Mike Gallacher
returns to the UK dairy industry (19th
January 2018)
First Milk’s superhero turnaround guru and former CEO Mike Gallacher has
made a part time return to the UK dairy as a Non-Executive Director of National
Milk Records
1.25ppl
milk price reduction for members of the co-op, South Caernarfon Creameries – from February 1st (8th
January 2018)
This take producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 29.78ppl and the standard liquid litre price to 28.81ppl
1ppl
milk price reduction for Arla directs – from 1st February (8th
January 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 27ppl
1ppl
milk price reduction for Dairy Crest (Davidstow) suppliers – from 1st
February (8th January 2018)
This takes producers’ standard manufacturing
litre price to 31ppl and 29.92ppl based on a standard liquid litre.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Joseph Heler Cheese – from February 1st (8th
January 2018)
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Belton Farm (Cheesemakers) – from 1st
February (8th January 2018)
This reduces producers’ standard
manufacturing litre price to 29.75ppl and the standard liquid litre price to
29ppl.
1ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers Yew Tree Dairy – from 1st February (8th
January 2018)
This takes producers standard litre price to
29ppl.
0.75ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Meadow Foods – from February 1st (8th
January 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 29ppl.
0.5ppl
milk price reduction for suppliers to Grahams Dairy Scotland – from January 1st (8th
January 2018)
This takes producers’ standard liquid litre
price to 29.25ppl
Crediton
Dairy to hold its farm gate milk price at 31ppl until at least March 1st (8th January 2018)
The 31ppl is based on a liquid standard litre
and this is likely to remain a chart topping farm gate milk price for at least
the first two months of 2018. The 31ppl price has been paid for four
consecutive months (November to February inclusive).
Barbers
Farmhouse Cheesemakers to hold its farm gate milk price until at least March 1st (8th
January 2018)
This means for four consecutive months
(November to February inclusive) Barbers manufacturing standard litre price has
been a healthy 31.193ppl and its liquid standard litre 30.074ppl.
Shock
332 million litres extra production previously unreported (8th
January 2018)
DEFRA are clearly still encountering problems
reporting UK milk statistics and the latest bombshell came yesterday (4th
January) with a shock upward revision of production for the calendar year 2017.
The January to October UK production has been
increased by a whopping 332million litre, equivalent to almost an additional
1.1 million litres everyday. A DEFRA spokesperson has commented to Ian that
this revision is “due to new information becoming available for some companies
in England and Wales”.
Novembers production totalled 1163.5 million
litres identical to the amount produced in November 2015 and up 84.6 million
litres (+7.8%) on November 2016 production.
AHDB Dairy have highlighted concerns over the
figures on several occasions and still believe the DEFRA production data for
the period May to December 2016 is around 20 million litres lower than AHDB
expect. Consequently AHDB have stated
“we would advise caution when looking at year on year changes”.
Arla
take 100 million litres off Muller in battle to supply Aldi (8th
January 2018)
The outcome of the recent Aldi liquid tender
is that Arla have won an additional two regions in England and Wales currently
supplied by Muller which amount to around 100 million litres. From October Muller will supply Aldi in two
regions with around 60 million litres annually, which will be less than 20% of
the combined Arla/Muller literage. Ian
calculates Arla will then be Aldi’s dominant supplier having easily in excess
of 80% of Aldi’s liquid and cream business, especially given Aldi’s speed of
growth. The deal is understood to be a
5-year contract.
Note, So far as Scottish Aldi stores are
concerned it’s no change as Grahams Dairy retain their supply agreement and
similarly Trewithen Dairy in Cornwall will retain their Aldi liquid business
to their Southwest stores.
Muller will continue to supply Aldi with a
range of non-liquid dairy products.
Last month Kantar confirmed that Aldi had
regained its crown as Britain’s fastest growing supermarket with sales up 15%
year on year with Aldi, now Britain’s 5th largest supermarket.
Muller has taken one or two knocks too many
from Arla, including the loss of volume from Sainsbury’s, Morrison’s and now
Aldi and can’t afford to loose anymore literage and the gloves are sure to come
off more than ever.
GDT’s
first milk auction of 2018 was up 2.2% (8th January 2018)
The average auction price this week was up
2.2%.
Key movers were:
WMP up
4.2% to average US$2886 tonne
SMP up
1.6% to average US$1699 tonne
Cheddar down 2.1% to average US$3317 tonne
Meanwhile, Fonterra has revised its forecast
New Zealand milk output down by 4% due to seriously dry conditions, which has
hit milk output. Fonterra has already
reduced the volume of WMP offered for auction on the fortnightly GDT auction as
a consequence of lower milk supplies.
New
Strategy Director at AHDB Dairy (8th January 2018)
Former Communication Director at First Milk,
Paul Flanagan has started his new role as Strategy Director, at AHDB dairy
stepping into the role for at least the next 6 months. The AHDB role will be challenging but
Flanagan has a track record in this area having handled First Milks
Communications for more than 11 years which was certainly challenging.
Chinese
dairy processor to be the official milk sponsor for the 2018 World Cup in
Russia (8th January 2018)
Mengniu Dairy Company, the second largest in
China, has been confirmed as the official World Cup dairy sponsor and will
supply milk, yoghurt drinks and ice cream at the FIFA World Cup Finals in
Russia this summer.